The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project

THE SOUTHERN AFRICA VULNERABILITY INITIATIVE (SAVI):INAUGURAL WORKSHOP

MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE

19-21 JUNE 2003

SAVI ContextGEC Research CommunityGECHS Development & Research Agenda

Rethinking Vulnerability within the GEC Community SAVI Overview & Sponsors Workshop Objectives & Format

Overview

[next]

The GEC Research Community

Sponsoring Agencies

Research Programs

Research Projects

The GEC Research Community cont’d

SPONSORS:

International Council for Science (ICSU)

International Social Science Council (ISSC)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The GEC Research Community cont’d

PROGRAMS (SPONSORS)

World Climate Research Program (WCRP)

(ICSU,WMO)

International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) (ICSU)

International Human Dimensions Program on GEC (IHDP) (ICSU, ISSC)

DIVERSITAS (ICSU)

The GEC Research Community cont’d

IHDP Projects

Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC)

Industrial Transformation (IT)

Land Cover & Land Use Change (LUCC)

Global Environmental Change & Human Security (GECHS)

The GEC Research Community cont’d

WMO ICSU ISSC

WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVER

IDGEC

IT

LUCC

GECHS

SAVI Organization

GECHS-led project (1 yr grant) Science Agencies (Funders)

ICSU & IHDP Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization

Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP,

Southern Africa Savannas Network

SAVI Organizing Committee

Coleen Vogel, University of the Witswatersrand

Karen O’Brien & Ane Schjolden, Center for International Climate & Environmental Research–Oslo

Mike Brklacich, Carleton University

GECHS Origins

• Redefinition of traditional security concepts

[next]

• Human security & the Canadian/international policy agenda

• Environment & economy linkages

• Critical zones mapping

Human Security & GEC

Human security is having the capacity to overcome vulnerability and to respond

positively to environmental change

Key Questions Underlying GECHS

[next]

• What types of environmental change threaten human security?

• How does environmental change threaten human security?

• What is the present extent of insecurity?

• Which regions and groups are the most insecure?

• Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable to specific environmental change than others?

• Can we predict future insecurities?

Context:

What strategies are potentially available to cope with the insecurities caused by environmental change?

Response Options:

• Why are some strategies selected?

Analysis:

• Why are some effective?

• How can obstacles be overcome?

Impacts

to

Responses

to

Vulnerability

Rethinking Vulnerability to Climatic Change (CC)

[next]

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios

First-Order Impacts:Regional Climatic Properties

Second-Order Impacts:Primary Productivity

Higher-Order Impacts:Regional Production

Impacts of Climatic Change

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios

Impacts

Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation

Responses to Climatic Change

Attributes of Impacts &Response Research

Single stressor Slow, incremental CC Single scale Limited socio-economic change Vulnerability as a CC residual

Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability

ResearchCLIMATIC CHANGE

Change in type, freq & mag of threats

CC

Exposure

BIO-PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY

Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research

cont’dCLIMATIC CHANGE

Change in type, freq & mag of threats

CC

Exposure

COMPREHENSIVEVULNERABIL

ITY

Capacity to cope with & recover from

CC

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

Comprehensive Vulnerability:

Science – Policy Linkages

Identify vulnerable populations/regions Assess interventions to reduce human

vulnerability / improve human security Balanced programs to improve adaptive

capacity & mitigation

Project Development Sponsoring Agencies SAVI Objectives SAVI Process

SAVI Overview

[next]

Project Development

Comprehensive vulnerability Multiple stressors Current (environmental) stress & GEC Policy responses Southern Africa focus

SAVI Organization

GECHS-led project (1 yr grant) Science Agencies (Funders)

ICSU & IHDP Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization

Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP,

Southern Africa Savannas Network

SAVI Purpose

Develop long-term applied research program &network for southern Africa to address

who is vulnerable, to what, why,and what can be done.

SAVI Objectives

1. Consolidate different facets of vulnerability research and develop an integrated framework for understanding vulnerability within the context of southern Africa

2. Develop a proposal for a self-sustaining, longer-term project which integrates vulnerability research with policy formulation.

3. Build a coalition amongst ICSU and other scientists in the region to implement a vulnerability research program.

SAVI Process (Tentative)

1. Assembling the multi-disciplinary team (Mar-Jun 03)

2. Inaugural W/S (Jun 03)

3. Workshop report (Jun-Sep 03)

4. Report in IHPD Update (Sep-Oct 03)

5. AVISO Bulletin & Briefings in Washington (US AID &WB) & Ottawa (CIDA & IDRC) (Jul-Dec 03)

6. Draft longer-term research proposal (Aug-Dec 03)

7. Mtg/ws to Review & Revise Draft Proposal and Engage Policy Community (Jan 04)

8. Preparation and Submission of Proposal for Long-term Project Funding (Oct 03 – Mar 04)

Workshop Objectives Logistics Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up

Inaugural SAVI Workshop

[next]

Workshop Objectives1. Examine current threats to human security in the region

2. Discuss how GEC in combination with other stresses might impinge upon human security in the region, & identify linkages.

3. Articulate policy issues relating to comprehensive vulnerability and human security in the region.

4. Begin development of a conceptual framework to assess comprehensive vulnerability.

Workshop Logistics

Mix of thematic & case studies

Short presentations to stimulate discussion

Discuss Qs presented in ToRs

Articulate linkages amongst vulnerability threats

Brainstorming!!!!!!

Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up

1. Sharper Qs regarding:Who and which regions within southern Africa are

vulnerable & to what & why? What is threatened?Role of GEC and other changes in future vulnerabilities?Future collaborations & funding?

2. Sketch of SAVI conceptual framework3. Workshop reports

W/S summary, IHDP Newsletter, AVISO, Other?4. Plans for SAVI W/S II

Purpose, Focus, Timing