The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson
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Transcript of The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson
The Global Consciousness ProjectWeak Signals, Strong Implications
Roger Nelson
The EGG Project(aka the Global Consciousness Project)
International collaboration75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …Network of host sites world wide
The tools: FieldREG technology …Make an EEG for the earth, an ElectrogaiagramEngaging moments of global events
The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?
The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers, Networking
REG/RNG devices run continuously
Synchronized computers and software
Internet transfer of data to central server
Automatic archiving, public access
Formal analyses and explorations
Background, methods, poetic history
Homepage
StatusDay Sum ResultsExtract
Magic Buttons
Primary Links Menu at Bottom
http://noosphere.princeton.edu
Berger: Web Design
A Real-Time Display (Bierman)
How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source
Each trial is the sum of 200 bits
The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with
Theoretical normal distribution
expected
Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)
Here we see the combined datafor a whole day, from 48 eggs
We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations
Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes.
- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
For most of the formal predictionsWe specify a “Standard Analysis”
Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi = (mi-)/ Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (zi)/N1/2
Composite Z is squared for 2 distributed statistic
Large cumulative sum of Zs2 – 1 or 2 – df
Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both
Cumulative sum of its expectationMay show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs
Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate with big deviations
Context explorations: Six hours of dataAround the beginning of bombing in Kosovo
Cumulative deviation of Zs2 or 2
The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east:An occasion of hope for resolution of differences
Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG
We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times
An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zonesCumulative excess deviation of means
Weak Replication
Model Prediction
A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores
Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is 2 with N df
Equivalent to variance 2 of egg scores
Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction
Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction
Reduction of Variance across eggs
Odds, GMT
Y2K New Years 1999-2000: Prototype AnalysisCumdev of smoothed variance across eggs
New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed
New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed
5-Min Smoothing Window
Repeating events teach us how much we Have to learn, 2001 , 2000 , 1999
Inspired by the result in 2001 We examine the previous year’s data
And the year before that … from which we Learn once again how much we don’t know
The destruction of a world treasureApproximate time, noon in Afghanistan
The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001
A 50-hour trend followed the attacks
Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
More context: Variance trends Sept 10-12Does the evidence indicate precursor Information -- 4 hours, maybe more?
Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11
The real data vs pseudorandom data
Data from EGG network Pseudorandom clone data
Shoup: examining a larger contextComparing Sept 11 vs four months of days
Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11Structure where there should be none
Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11
Measure Probability estimate Comparison standard
Composite deviation 0.003 Resampling: 400 days
Inter-node correlation 0.0001 Student t: 400 days
Device variance peak 0.001 Permutation: control p = 0.756
Autocorrelation 0.0003 60 control days: p > 0.05
News correlation 0.002 Student t: 365 days
Diurnal variation 0.30 Time series: 365 days
Bottom line: the full formal database113 global events over 4 years
What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it?
Four years of data
50 eggs around the world
More than 100 formal studies
About 65% positive outcome
About 20% individually significant
Many analyses remain to be done
Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?
Refine operation and dissemination
Ask good questions, smart and useful
Learn whether consciousness “works”
Support quest for theoretical picture
Teach people about creative mind
Convince leaders we are one
Contribute to better future for culture
We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together?
-- Parker Palmer, educator
http://noosphere.princeton.edu