The German Experience - Oxford Energy · Geothermie Biomasse sonstige Kohlegas Erdöl ... The...
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2 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Introduction 1
Contents
The German „Energiewende“ 2
Operational Challenges of RES 3
3 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
- Part of the ELIA Group
- Ensures the supply of electricity to over
18 million people in Germany
- System operator for Berlin, Hamburg,
Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western
Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt
and Thuringia
- Responsible for the operation,
maintenance and expansion of the
"Electricity Highways“
(220 kV and 380 kV)
The Transmission System Operator 50Hertz
Hamburg Berlin
INTRODUCTION 1
4 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
50Hertz‘ responsibility for the society includes secure system
operation, RES integration and market development
Transmission grid operator
Market facilitator
Trustee for RES processes
Responsible for the operation, maintenance and
expansion of ultra-high voltage lines and
connection of offshore wind farms
Catalyst of the electricity market development,
esp. in northern and central-eastern Europe
Responsible for the financial management of
the renewable energy processes
Source: 50Hertz
System operator Responsible for the control and balancing of
the transmission system, 24/7: frequency and
voltage control, congestion management
INTRODUCTION 1
5 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
50Hertz at a glance
5
Surface area
Total length of lines
Maximum load
Energy consumption
(based on electricity supplied to final
consumers in acc. with the EEG)
Installed capacity:
- of which RES
- of which Wind
Turnover
- Grid
2014
47,802 MW (~24%)
24,938 MW (~29%)
14,637 MW (~40%)
8.569 billion €
0.976 billion €
Workforce 893
9,855 km (~30%)
ca. 95 TWh
(~20%)
ca. 16 GW (~21%)
2010
35,000 MW (~35%)
15,130 MW (~29%)
11,260 MW (~40%)
5.6 billion €
0.6 billion €
650
109,360 km²
(~31%)
9,800 km (~28%)
ca. 98 TWh
(~20%)
ca. 17 GW (~20%)
109,360 km²
(~31%)
Pro
vis
ional data
, appro
ved v
alu
es w
ill b
e a
vaila
ble
on A
ugust
2015;
In b
rackets
: share
of
tota
l valu
e;
Sourc
e:
50H
ert
z a
s a
t 31/1
2/2
014
Sta
nd:
June 2
015
Sta
tus a
t June 2
015
INTRODUCTION 1
6 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
German Energy Transition „Energiewende“
Policy-driven structural changes in the German energy system:
What are the core elements of German „Energiewende“?
Greenhouse gas reduction: Future of coal generation questioned
Target: 40% CO2 reduction by 2020, 80-95% by 2050
Dynamic RES development (EEG 2.0)
Targets: 40-45% by 2025, 80% by 2050
Phase out of nuclear energy production by 2022
Grid extension to transport RES energy to demand centres in
Southern Germany
energy efficiency: electricity efficiency up by 50% by 2050
? ? ?
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
7 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
in Germany
wind
photovoltaics
biomass
Area proportional to installed capacity
Source: 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, Google Earth
2000 2006 2014
~ 30,000 plants ~ 221,000 plants > 1,600,000 plants
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
8 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Forecast: expansion of renewable energy in
Germany
Reference area corresponds to 100 MW Reference area corresponds to 100 MW
*) Scenario B of the 2025 GDP
2015 2025*
Wind Photovoltaic Biomass
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
9 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
RES infeed in Germany in August 2015
We encountered overlapping infeed of wind and PV of up to 45 GW
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
PV
Wind
40 GW
20 GW
10 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
others
biomass
wind onshore
wind offshore
photovoltaics
RES in the 50Hertz control area - Forecast
Installed capacity in MW
As at 31/12/2014
2014 EEG forecast scenario „trend“
Forecast Current
situation
Installed capacity late 2014*
wind 14637 MW
photovoltaics 8237 MW
biomass 1792 MW
others 272 MW
Total 24938 MW
2100
8100
15491
27120
32650
37380
* As at July 2014, Source: 50Hertz
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
11 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
RES as a niche
< 10% RES
RES as major player
10-40% RES
RES as dominant
player
> 40% RES
- Develop forecasting instruments to
improve their accuracy
- Develop grid infrastructure to meet
new transport demands (due to new
areas of generation) and as source of
flexibility
- Investigate ways to reduce “must-run”
capacities – RES to deliver ancillary
services (integration into control
power markets…)
- Implementation of real-time data
exchange and direct steering of RES
- Harmonised European approach to
RES policy
Rising share of RES leads to new requirements and
challenges
- Develop forecasting instruments to
improve their accuracy
- Develop grid infrastructure to meet
new transport demands (due to new
areas of generation) and as source of
flexibility
- Investigate ways to reduce “must-run”
capacities – RES to deliver ancillary
services (integration into control power
markets…)
- Implementation of real-time data
exchange and direct steering of RES
- Harmonised European approach to
RES policy
- Develop new market design
bringing together RES and
complementary conventional
power plants and storage
- Full steering of conventional
plants and RES in emergency
situations
- Substantially develop demand-
side response
- Enhance real-time cooperation
between TSOs and DSOs: data
exchange, review roles and
responsibilities
- Develop new business models
cross-linking electricity and other
energy sectors
THE ENERGIEWENDE 2
12 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Introduction 1
Contents
The German „Energiewende“ 2
Operational Challenges of RES 3
13 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
High exports from Germany and
Scandinavia and high imports in South-
Eastern parts of Europe
High unscheduled power flows via
Poland an Czechia
In order to keep the system stable, the
German TSOs need to redispatch in
the scale of up to 10 GW.
The problem cannot be solved by
Germany alone, international redispatch
cooperation is necessary.
Germany contracted reserve power
plants in Austria, Switzerland, France
and Italy of more than 4 GW.
Current grid situation in Europe
Trade balances in Europe (Jul-Oct ‘15)
Red=
Export
Blue=
Import
Data source: transparency.entsoe.eu
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
14 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Operational challenges from wind
Increasing
transmission
need
Conclusion: grid development is the key to the
success of the energy transition
High exports from
Northern Germany in
times of high wind
infeed
Grid congestion on
German North-South
lines and at the
Polish border
Insufficient
redispatch potential
within Germany
Redispatch costs in
2015 could
reach 500 mio. €
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
15 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Stress on European neighbouring grids due to
unplanned load flows – 50Hertz counter-measures
Grid expansion
- reduces system-security-
relevant flows
- ensuring efficiency and
cost effectiveness =
challenge
- reduces system-security-
relevant flows
- investment required
- ensures system-security
in entire system
- enables integrated
European market
Redispatch
(„virtual PST“)
Phase shifters
(physical PST)
short-term middle-term long-term
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
?
16 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Federal Requirement Plan for 2012 as legal
basis for grid development need
- Basis: 2012 Grid Development Plan
of the TSOs
- 36 projects confirmed
- 3 HVDC corridors
- Current Grid Development Plan
confirms Federal Requirement Plan
- The Federal Requirement Plan Act
is amended at least every three
years
Federal Requirement Plan Act
adopted by German Bundestag in
June 2013
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
17 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Operational challenges from PV Solar eclipse 2015 March 20
Installed capacity in Europe:
80.000 MW PV – thereof in Germany 40.000 MW
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
18 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Operational challenges from PV Solar eclipse 2015 March 20
simulated PV in-feed (worst case analysis)
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MW
Wolkenlos Orig. Wolkenlos SoFi Bedeckt Orig. Bedeckt SoFi
19,2
GW
12,6
GW
German TSO counted on market mechanisms for basic balancing
Installed PV-capacity
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF WIND AND PV 2
19 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 sonstigeEEGBiomüll
WindOnshoreWindOffshoreSolar
PSW-SpeicherLaufwasser
PSW
Geothermie
Biomasse
sonstige
Kohlegas
Erdöl
Erdgas
Pumped storage and hard coal power plants in Germany, Switzerland and
Austria supplied the backup capacity.
Nuclear and lignite units could remain in baseload operation.
The 15-min market performed very well to balance the system.
System operation on March 20th 2015 Power plant operation
GW
Quelle: transparency.entsoe.net
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
20 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Must-run of conventional generation
0
2
4
6
8
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18EnWG §13.2
PV
Wind
Rostock
SchwarzePumpe
Schkopau
Jaenschwalde
Lippendorf
Boxberg
Negative RL
Coal power plants
Wind
Must-Run
For better integration of RES into the system, must-run generation must
be reduced. Ancillary services must be provided by RES to run the
system stable. (balancing, reactive power, black-start, fault-detection….)
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
GW
21 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Balancing from RES
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
11:05 11:45 12:25Time
MW
Po
we
r
Demonstration-Test - mFRR Wind power plants are technically capable to provide
balacing energy. 50Hertz is currently involved in
pilot projects in Germany to test this within the
German market framework.
Current challenges are the definition of the baseline
and the design of the balancing market
(daily tendering, hourly products….)
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
22 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Special challenge: own generation to avoid
surcharges
Photovoltaic
module
Battery
Storage
„Savings“
Average electricity price for households
(3.500 kWh/a)
Alternative:
Own generation
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3
Own generation can have positive effects on innovation,
but negative distributive impacts on socialized costs must be avoided.
23 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Evaluation of „Energiewende“
Key successes
Significant roll-out of RES
Key failures
Significant contributions to cost
reductions for solar and wind globally
Focus mainly on installed capacity
rather than on used energy
High costs for consumers since feed-in
tariffs were not reduced with same
speed as solar panel prices dropped
No policy framework yet for the next
phase (RES share > 25%):
energy market reform needed that takes
into account dominance of wind and solar
Limited success of Combined Heat and
Power (CHP)
Slow development of transmission and
distribution network
Broad economic participation
Sustained high level of system security
CONCLUSION 4
24 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers
Challenges of „Energiewende“
Costs How to share costs
(>30 bln. €/a) within society?
Market design How to find an appropriate
balance between price-based
coordination and investment
certainty?
Grid development How to speed up and raise
acceptance?
Conventional power
plants How to accompany restructuring
in power industry?
European
energy policy
How to coordinate
the „Energiewende“
with neighbouring
countries?
Combined Heat
and Power
(CHP) How much is
needed/useful?
RES integration How to increase flexibility of
producers and consumers?
CONCLUSION 4
A long road
ahead…
Many thanks for your attention
Oxford, 5.10.2015
Dr. Niels Ehlers
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Eichenstraße 3A
12435 Berlin
+49 30 - 5150 - 4576
www.50Hertz.com