The GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator

© GEO Secretariat

Toshio Koike, Professor The Univeristy of Tokyo/ Japan GEO WG Chair [email protected]

The GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator An Innovative Tool for Effective Collaboration

Extremes Flood/Drought

mitigation adaptation

Climate System

Water Resources

Management System

Water Cycle

Agriculture/Food Biodiversity/Ecosystem

Health Energy

Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working Together

MDGs Climate Change Biodiversity

Regime Shift

Sustainable Development

Observation Integration

Model Integration

Data Integration & Analysis

Cross-SBA/CoP Coordination Disaster/Health/Energy/Climate/Weather/Agriculture/Forest/Ecosystem/Biodiversity

Sustained Education Framework

Management System

Integration

Water Cycle Integrator

Integrated & Coordinated Approach

Work Bench

Capacity Building

Drought and Water Scarcity

Floods and Land Slides

Water Pollution

and Ecosystem Degradation

GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative

(AWCI)

Climate Change Impacts on Water Cycle


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Demonstration River Basins

Data Uploading Complete

Quality Controlling Complete Ongoing

Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia India Indonesia Japan Korea Lao PDR Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Uzbekistan Vietnam

Document Metadata Registration Complete Ongoing

Observation Metadata Registration Complete Ongoing

8

GCOM-W

GCOM-C

EarthCARE

GPM

ALOS-2 ALOS

Cryosat-2

SMOS

ADM-Aeolus

METEOSAT

MSG MTG

EPS Metop

Post EPS

SMAP

Satellite Observation Integration


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Models

In-situ Observation

Satellite

Data Integration

Integrated Water

Resources Management

(IWRM)

Hydrological Model (eg. WEB-DHM)

Models

Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP

River Flow

Numerical Weather Prediction

TRMM

AMSR-E

Rain Gauge River Discharge

SSM/I

Geostational Satellites

Optimization Scheme

validation

The Red River Basin: 160,000 km2

Hoa Binh Dam

ThacBa TuyenQuang

China

Hanoi

Flood disaster in Hanoi - Tropical cyclones - Historical flood events with damages - Death toll: around 100psn/year Economic loss: $1.2 billion (2006)

Increasing demand for hydropower generation - Increasing by 15%in each year (due to economic growth & urbanization) - Hydropower: 60% of total electricity - Unstable water supply (70% of annual rainfall accumulates in Jul-Sep)

Integrated Water


(IWRM)


Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP


TRMM

AMSR-E


SSM/I


Optimization Scheme

validation

Soil Moisture

Surface Flux LDAS

Land Use MODIS

Soil Moisture

validation

River Flow

Models

10days averaged hydrological parameters in the middle Indus

Latent heat Sensible heat

Surface soil moisture Root zone soil moisture

Integrated Water


(IWRM)


Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP


TRMM

AMSR-E


SSM/I


Optimization Scheme

validation

Soil Moisture

Surface Flux LDAS

Land Use MODIS

Soil Moisture

validation

River Flow

GRACE Ground Water

Models

Ground Water

validation

Monitoring

Drought Index

Seasonal Prediction

σµ−

=x

x dtransforme

)var(x=σ

dxxfxx )()()var( 2∫ −= µ

∫= dxxxf )(µ

dtransforme

dtransformedtransforme xxZSA

σ−

==

Drought Quantification: The Standard Anomaly Index

Agricultural drought

Meteorological drought

Hydrological drought

1) Transform the best-fit distribution pattern into a standardized distribution

2) Normalize by calculating SA

Jaranilla-Sanchez, P. A., et al. (2011), Water Resour. Res., in press.

0 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.0 -1.5 -2.0

Nea

r nor

mal

Ext

rem

ely

dry

seve

rely

dry

mod

erat

ely

dry

Ext

rem

ely

wet

seve

rely

wet

mod

erat

ely

wet

Standard deviations from the mean Source: [ Mckee et al., 1993]

Nea

r nor

mal

Spatial SA: Philippines

Integrated Water


(IWRM)


Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP


TRMM

AMSR-E


SSM/I


Optimization Scheme

validation

Soil Moisture

Surface Flux LDAS

Land Use MODIS

Soil Moisture

validation

River Flow

GRACE Ground Water

Models

Ground Water

validation

Monitoring

Drought Index

Seasonal Prediction

Seasonal Prediction

Seasonal Drought Prediction

Month

SA FROM OBSERVED DISCHARGE

SA FROM FORECAST DISCHARGE

June -0.954 -1.010455 July -1.30505 -1.61425

August -0.4937 -2.41276

Close enough, drought conditions can be forecasted

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

Jan-83 Apr-83 Jul-83

SA

From Observation From Forecast

May Jun. Jul. Aug.

Months 1st 2nd 3rd

Year Observed SFC Observed SCF Observed SCF

1983

1991

1997

1999-2000

ARROW Legends: red= drought; green=normal; blue=wet

e.g. increase towards drought conditions

Seasonal Drought Prediction

Integrated Water


(IWRM)


Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP


TRMM

AMSR-E


SSM/I


Optimization Scheme

validation

Soil Moisture

Surface Flux LDAS

Land Use MODIS

Soil Moisture

validation

GRACE Ground Water

Models

Ground Water

validation

Monitoring

River Flow

Drought Index

Seasonal Prediction

Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction

Evaluation Bias Correction

Climate Change

Assessment Adaptation

Obs.

Evaluation for relative distribution： Correlation coefficient(CC)

Evaluation of absolute value:

RMSE

Scoring CC and RMES are more than all GCM averaged value ：1 CC or RMES are more than all GCM averaged value ：0

CC and RMES are less than all GCM averaged value ：‐1

Climate Change Impact Assessment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

cgcm3_t47 miroc_h cgcm3_t63 ingv mpi giss_aom miroc_m

200年確率流量の将来予測結果Change in 200-year probability flood peak

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Control Plan in Indonesia

10year Probable flood Current Climate

10year Probable flood 50 years later

Integrated Water


(IWRM)


Satellite

In-situ Observation

GSMaP


TRMM

AMSR-E


SSM/I


Optimization Scheme

validation

Soil Moisture

Surface Flux LDAS

Land Use MODIS

Soil Moisture

validation

GRACE Ground Water

Models

Ground Water

validation

Monitoring

River Flow

Drought Index

Seasonal Prediction

Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction

Evaluation Bias Correction

Climate Change

Assessment Adaptation

Water Cycle Data Integration


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator (WA01-C1, 2012-2015 WP)

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Urban Water Model

Loading Unit

Agricultural Info.

Famer’s Needs

Channel Form

Sedimentation

Biodiversity Data

In-situ Data

Ground Elevation

Sewage

Water Cycle

Model

River Flow

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Agriculture Support

Material Cycle

Model

Crop Model

Channel Analysis

Index Organism

Val. Val.

Urban Environment Conservation

River Basin Management


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Workbench

issues stake- holder

stake-holder

stake- holder

stake- holder

stake- holder

Sharing data & information, and working together


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Drought A

ssessment

Agricultural data (Member Country)

Drought Index (UT)

Distributed Hydrological Model (UT)

Sentinel Asia (AIT/JAXA)

In-situ data Quality Control (UT)

Rainfall Down Scaling (UNU)

Flood Loss Estimation (UNU)

Training Modules Training Course

Flood Inundations model (UNU)

Integrated Flood Analyses System

(ICHARM)

Flood alert & E

vacuation

Support for decision making

Country- A, B, -, -

Support for decision making

Country-a, b, -, - Data Integration

Hydrological M

odel

Drought Indices

Data Integration

Hydrological M

odel

Flood Inundation

Interactions between climate change, biodiversity and desertification

Climate Change

Biodiversity Desertification

Impact of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change could alter distribution of species and their habitats and lead to

migration of plants and animals if there are corridors

Role of biodiversity in climate change mitigation and

adaptation Forest and biodiversity sequester carbon and

affect local climate Biodiversity ensures ecosystem resilience to

climate change

Impact of Climate change on desertification

Rising temperature increases evaportranstation and causes drought

Decreasing precipitation leads to drought Impact of desertification on

climate Desertification causes loss of vegetation an

soil carbon and changes drylands from carbon sink into carbon source

Dust storms increase aerosols with cooling effect

Impact of desertification on biodiversity Desertification degrades habitats for biodiversity and leads to loss of

biodiversity Role of biodiversity in combating desertification Loss of drought- resistant biodiversity reduces resilience of ecosystem

to droughts. Vegetation protects soil from erosion and stabilizes slopes from

landslides.

UNCECAR Climate and Ecosystems

Change Adaptation Research


Model Integration




Management System

Integration



Work Bench

Capacity Building

Extremes Flood/Drought

mitigation adaptation

Climate System

Water Resources

Management System

Water Cycle

Agriculture/Food Biodiversity/Ecosystem

Health Energy

Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working Together

MDGs Climate Change Biodiversity

Regime Shift

Sustainable Development

Thank You.

Actions are now required.

DATA AND INFORMATION, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, COOPERATION FRAMEWORK, AND PEOPLE ARE NOW READY.

The GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator

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Transcript of The GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator