The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases:

Nitrous Oxide

Wilfried Winiwarter

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 2 of 22

Outline

• The RAINS model

• Emission sources

• Emission abatement(N2O related vs. for other reasons)

• Costs

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 3 of 22

The RAINS model

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 4 of 22

Multi-pollutant multi-effectEconomicactivities

Emission controlpolicies

Agriculture

NOx emissions

SO2 emissions

Solvents, fuels,industry

Energy use

NH3 dispersion

S dispersion

VOC emissions

NH3 emissions

Transport

Critical loadsf. acidification

Critical loads f.eutrophication

NOx dispersion

O3 formation

NH3 control& costs

NOx/VOC control&costs

VOC control& costs

Emission control costs

Critical levelsfor ozone

Environmentaltargets

Primary PM dispersionOther activities PM control

& costs

Primary PM emissions

Secondary aerosols

PM Population exposure

SO2 control& costs

NOx control& costs

O3 Populationexposure

Economicactivities

Emission controlpolicies

Agriculture

NOx emissions

SO2 emissions

Solvents, fuels,industry

Energy use

NH3 dispersion

S dispersion

VOC emissions

NH3 emissions

Transport

Critical loadsf. acidification

Critical loads f.eutrophication

NOx dispersion

O3 formation

NH3 control& costs

NOx/VOC control&costs

VOC control& costs

Emission control costs

Critical levelsfor ozone

Environmentaltargets

Primary PM dispersionOther activities PM control

& costs

Primary PM emissions

Secondary aerosols

PM Population exposure

SO2 control& costs

NOx control& costs

O3 Populationexposure

GHG control & costs GHG emissions GHG dispersion Global warming

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 5 of 22

Processes

• Nitric acid production– Fertilizer industry– Abatement by NSCR

• Adipic acid production– Only a handful of installations– High flue gas concentrations facilitate abatement– Voluntary agreement by industry lead to a

decrease before 2000 (process optimization)– Catalytic reduction or oxidation

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 6 of 22

Combustion

• Stationary sources, NOx abatement

– SNCR (urea as reducing agent)– Fluidized bed

• Mobile sources, NOx abatement

– Catalytic converters (IPCC factor too high)– EURO-IV diesel engines

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 7 of 22

Direct use

• Anesthetic

• Foaming agent in food industry

• Emissions by population– From German/Dutch/Austrian UNFCCC

submission– From hospitals‘ environmental declarations

N2

O

N2

O

N2

O

Atmospheric deposition

Mineral fertilizer

leaching

spreading

Nitrification, denitrification ...SOIL

WATER

NH

3, N

Ox

Microbial production

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 9 of 22

Non – soil

• Sewage treatment– 40% reduction potential at no costs

(Hendriks et al.)

• Manure storage– Following IPCC emission factors– Using RAINS classifications of storage

types

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 10 of 22

RAINS structure

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 11 of 22

Model parameterization

IPCC emission factor

Regression model

Deterministic model EEF

EF

Regression model

Deterministic model

IPCC emission factor

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 12 of 22

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

kt N

2O

/yr

UNFCCC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

kt N

2O/y

r

UNFCCC

Boeckx and Van Cleemput

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

kt N

2O/y

r

UNFCCC

Boeckx and Van Cleemput

GAINS "IPCC"

Soil N2O

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

kt N

2O/y

r

UNFCCC

Boeckx and Van Cleemput

GAINS "IPCC"

GAINS "Freibauer"

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 13 of 22

Options to reduce N2O emissions

• Reduction of nitrogen loss

• Reduction of N-input (mineral fertilizer)

• 4 categories– Simple (“good management”)

– Sophisticated (complex farming patterns)

– Agrochemical (nitrification inhibitor)

– Hi-tech (satellite data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 14 of 22

Negative costs

• Cost savings due to savings on fertilizer costs:up to 17,000 €/t N2O

• Assumes that fertilizer reduction does not affect crop yield or require additional costs

• Cost savings are considered equal to “transaction costs” occurring when implementing measures (otherwise measures would have been introduced autonomously already)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 15 of 22

Forest soils

• Anthropogenic NOx emissions / deposition:

N2O emissions from forest soils

• We apply IPCC default emission factors and the parametrization of a deterministic (DNDC) model

• Deposition according to EMEP, year 2000 (fixed).N2O emissions attributed to recipient country of

deposition (in contrast to the IPCC concept)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 16 of 22

Abatement costs sector technology Abatement costs

(€ / t N2O) (€ / t CO2-eq)

Adipic acid Catalytic reduction 44 0.15

Nitric acid Catalytic reduction 130 0.44

Sewage treatment plants

Process optimization 0 0

Use of N2O

(anesthetics)Replacement 200,000 676

Agriculture Fertilizer reduction 1500 5

Agriculture Fertilizer timing 10,000 34

Agriculture Nitrification inhibitors 20,000 68

Agriculture Precision farming 60,000 203

Agriculture – organic soils

Stop agricultural use 42,000 142

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 17 of 22

Interactions Sector Important interactions with

other pollutants in GAINS

Power plants and Industry

SCR and NCSR technologies NOx

Fluidised bed combustion NOx

Power plants / Agriculture

Increased fertilizer consumption due to energy

crop plantation

CO2

Transport Catalytic converter NOx

Agriculture Manure spreading (deep injection)

NH3 (CH4)

Anaerobic digestion of manure CH4

Fertilizer production CO2

Nitrogen input Nitrate in groundwater

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 18 of 22

Assumptions CLE

• CAP reforms reduce fertilizer input at a level of the simple option „fertilizer reduction“ for EU25

• Adipic acid plants are fully controlled

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 19 of 22

Timeline CLE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

7_indirect

6B_Waste

4D_soils

4B_manure

3D_solvents

2B_processes

1A4_other

1A3_transp

1A2_industry

1A1_energy

region (Alle)

Sum of N2O <kt/yr>

year

IPCC

(Europe, 39 countriesprovisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 20 of 22

Timeline MFR

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

7_indirect

6B_Waste

4D_soils

4B_manure

3D_solvents

2B_processes

1A4_other

1A3_transp

1A2_industry

1A1_energy

region (Alle)

Sum of N2O <kt/yr>

year

IPCC

(Europe, 39 countriesprovisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 21 of 22

Cost curvesector technology

Spec. costs[€/t N2O]

Emissions abat.[kt N2O] Cost [mio €]

Increm.abat [kt N2O]

Increment Cost [M €]

Adipic acid Catalytic reduction 44 233 10 233 10

Grassland Fertilizer reduction 1500 26 39 259 49

Arable land Fertilizer reduction 1500 19 29 278 79

Sewage treatment pl. Process optimization 0 15 0 294 79

Nitric acid Catalytic reduction 130 107 14 400 93

Grassland Fertilizer reduction 1500 35 53 435 145

Arable land Fertilizer reduction 1500 29 43 464 188

Grassland Fertilizer timing 10000 113 512 515 700

Arable land Fertilizer timing 10000 88 402 555 1102

Grassland Nitrification inhib. 20000 235 2456 678 3558

Arable land Nitrification inhib. 20000 185 1929 775 5487

Agriculture – org. soils Stop agricultural use 42000 33 1376 807 6863

Grassland Precision farming 60000 338 6140 910 13003

Arable land Precision farming 60000 265 4823 990 17826

Use of N2O . Replacement 200000 58 11530 1048 29355

(Europe, 39 countriesprovisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4DIspra, October 21-22, 2004 22 of 22

Conclusions

• Soil is the dominant source of anthropogenic N2O

emissions in Europe

• N2O emissions and emission reductions strongly

characterized by interferences

• Options to reduce additional to CLE at moderate costs are available

• Controls – independent of costs – will be applied due to reasons other than GHG abatement