The Future of Transatlantic Relations

Dr Fraser Cameron

Director of Studies

European Policy Centre, Brussels

EU and US- Friends or Rivals?

• What Common Values and Interests?

• Venus v Mars

• US foreign policy (emphasis on terrorism, pre-emptive strikes, military, unilateral – “the international anarchist”)

• Systemic or temporary change ? Would Gore have been different? Dean?

1949-1989

• Cold War glue held alliance together

• Suez, France/NATO, Ostpolitik, Pershings, ‘chicken wars’

• German – European unification

• 9 Nov 1989 : 11 September 2001

1990s

• Bush Sr respected in Europe – Clinton unknown (but later loved in Europe)

• Balkans – Land mines – UN finances

• Role of Congress after 1994 (Gingrich) – impeachment

• Somalia - Kosovo

EU-US Structures

• 1990 Transatlantic Declaration

• 1995 New Transatlantic Agenda (global and regional cooperation)

• Annual summits, ministerials, Senior officials (SLG), Task Force, CFSP, JHA

George W Bush

• Little support in Europe ‘The toxic Texan’

• Disputes over Kyoto, ICC, arms control, Middle East, UN, rogue states

• Key advisers (Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Powell) little experience of today’s Europe

• Congressional ignorance

Impact of 9/11

• Initially much sympathy in Europe “We are all Americans now” Le Monde

• Measured response – overthrow of Taliban welcomed (but no NATO role)

• And no return to multilateralism – “you are with us or against us”

• Axis of evil ; doctrine of pre-emptive strikes

Impact of Iraq

• Unfinished business after first Gulf War

• Top of ‘neocons’ agenda (Wolfowitz), seized opportunity after 9/11 : Saddam-Osama bin Laden -WMD-terrorism

• Rumsfeld ‘old v new Europe’

• Consequences – shift back to UN?

Trade relations

• $ one billion a day in goods and services• More EU investment in Texas than US

investment in Japan• US investment in Netherlands double US

investment in Mexico• The two giants of the WTO• But disputes on GMOs, tax regimes, steel,

agriculture, competition policy, etc

Common Values

• Democracy, rule of law, free markets, but

• Different social and economic models

• Religion – huge differences ; plus death penalty, violence, health care, abortion

• Growing public perceptions of these differences

Common Interests

• Promoting democracy and free trade

• Combating terrorism and WMD

• Regional stability (Balkans, Middle East, North Korea, Africa, etc)

• But UN? Multilateral approach? Arms control? Role of military?

Public Opinion

• Latest polls (GMF) show rapidly declining support throughout Europe for US foreign policy

• Public agreement on main threats but disagree on use of military (84-50) in general and on Iran in particular (73-44)

• Most Americans support active overseas role – only 15% favour isolationism

• Most Europeans (and Americans) favour stronger EU foreign and security policy role – but support drops from 70% to 50% if this would mean more spending on defence

The Future

• Pax Americana? Balance of Power? Benevolent hegemon?

• Impact of Iraq on US attitudes towards UN, nation building, role of military, allies

• US and Europe : support united Europe or divide and rule?

• Balkans – much agreement but ICC, SFOR, unfinished business (Kosovo), Stability Pact, Turkey

A New Partnership

• Need to talk to and not past each other. ‘More Powell and less Rumsfeld’. Better summits. Involve EP and Congress more.

• Shared threat assessments ; joint action eg Iran, N Korea, Middle East

• WTO/Cancun – shared responsibility• New economic agenda – Open Skies, financial services,

regulatory frameworks• EU has to get its act together on CFSP and improve

military capabilities (Solana paper)• US has to recognise EU as best partner