The Future of the Travel Industry - Scenarios for 2020_Rohit Talwar_WTFL 2011
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Transcript of The Future of the Travel Industry - Scenarios for 2020_Rohit Talwar_WTFL 2011
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World Tourism
Forum Lucerne
April 15th 2011
Rohit Talwar
CEO Fast Future
Research
The Future of the Travel Industry
– Scenarios for 2020
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Hotels 2020 – Objectives
• Identify key drivers of change
for the globally branded hotel
sector over the next decade
• Examine the implications for:
Hotel strategy
Brand portfolio
Business models
Customer targeting
Innovation
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Transformational Change?
It’s Only Just Begun
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What I Want – When I Want
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Augmented Reality /
Interactive Data Eyeglasses
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Holographic Laptops
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Personalization
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Real Time / Predictive Analytics
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Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
448 691
729
5231
4157
739
1030
344
585
Source : United Nations 2010 2050
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Traveller Behaviours
• Too Busy To Care
• Complex Lives,
Pressurised Finances
• Craving Simplicity
• Wealthy and Hard to
Please
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Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse
and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings
604 Respondents
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Customers will increasingly use social media and
collective intelligence travel services (like Dopplr) to
define the desired ‘product’ for a temporary self-
forming group.
601 Respondents
45 45
9
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
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The Asian middle classes will make up the largest
share of international travel
21
54
25
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree600 Respondents
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Reorientation of Global Markets
Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1
Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)
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Industry Scenarios
Passenger Price Sensitivity
Low
Low
High
High
Business Model Innovation
Uncharted
Territory
Paranoid
Survive
Back to the
Future
Crash and
Burn
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Virtual Airlines
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Aviation Profit Pools
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Swoopo - The $17,739 iPad
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Heavy investment in emerging tourism markets will widen traveller
choice, increase competition and potentially drive down prices and
profit margins across the spectrum of hotels
21
58
20
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree593 Respondents
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Sustainability
Environmental considerations will play an increasing role in
the choice of business and leisure hotels. 606 Respondents
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By 2020 global hotel groups will increasingly seek to
cover the full spectrum from budget through to
luxury and heritage properties
606 Respondents
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590 Respondents
By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed ‘signature’
properties will emerge within hotel chain portfolios, providing
differentiation and opening up ancillary revenue stream options
By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed
‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chain
portfolios, providing differentiation and opening up ancillary
revenue stream options
22
57
19
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree590 Respondents
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By 2020 we will see the emergence of a new breed of unbranded hotel
group, offering 'white label solutions'- including sophisticated marketing,
very high standards of service and advanced technology support while
allowing owners to develop their own brands
595 Respondents
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610 Respondents
Hotels will use discount offers to capture a share of pre- and
post-trip travel spend e.g. purchase of luggage, clothing, transportation, insurance, duty free etc.
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610 Respondents
Hotels will increasingly provide additional business services
e.g. translation, access to legal and accounting advice,
secretarial support, company formation, organization of small meetings, etc
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Hotel guests will expect their stay to be personalized
around a set of choices they make at the time of
booking or prior to arrival
42
50
7
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree602 Respondents
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Pricing In a highly automated world, there will be a range of customers at
every price point who are willing to pay for personal service
610 Respondents
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Hotel Categorization may Need to Evolve to Focus
More on Service Than Facilities
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Mapping a Path to 2020
Strategic Management Imperatives
Horizon scanning Scenario based planning Anticipation
Open processes Rapid implementation Tomorrow’s workforce
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An organisation capable of surviving and thriving in turbulence and
uncertainty
An Organisation Capable of Surviving and
Thriving in Turbulence and Uncertainty
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Deep Understanding of an Increasingly Geographically,
Financially, Generationally and Attitudinally Diverse and
Rapidly Evolving Customer Base
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Deliver Personalised Service Choices
Through Immersive, Tactile and Multi-
Dimensional Technology Interfaces
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Connected, Adaptive and Predictive
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Multiple Revenue Streams, Asset Light,
Insight Rich
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Continuous and Open Evolution –
the System as a Living Laboratory
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• All to play for
• Stay on top of key trends and drivers
• Curiosity and Magnetism are key
• Experiment
Conclusion
Designing Your Future
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Hotels 2020 Report: http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit
Web / Newsletter: www.fastfuture.com
Convention 2020 Study: www.convention-2020.com
Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture
Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com
LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar
Thank you
Rohit Talwar - [email protected]