The Future of the “New” Europe and its Population Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi in...
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Transcript of The Future of the “New” Europe and its Population Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi in...
The Future of the “New” The Future of the “New” Europe and its PopulationEurope and its Population
Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi
in collaboration with Carlo Altomonte
Università BocconiJune 23, 2005
Outline of the talk
• EU and its enlargements: how many Europeans?
• The Social Agenda 2005-2010
• Age structure and sustainability
• Why is the EU population ageing?
• Key references
1957
1973
1986
1981
1995The EU
enlargements
Luxembourg Group - 1998
Helsinki Group - 1999
May 2004
Turkey (?)
2007-2009
The New Europe: Schengen
Countries in the Schengen area, not EU Member States and not Candidate Countries
EU Member States not in the Schengen area
Candidate Countries
EU Member States in the Schengen area
Date of entry Countries Total EU population at
the date (000) Belgium France Germany Italy Luxembourg
1957
The Netherlands
166.648
Denmark Ireland 1973 United Kingdom
255.990
1981 Greece 271.201 Portugal
1986 Spain
321.658
(1991) Germany (territories of the former GDR)
344.077
Austria Finland 371.590 1995 Sweden Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovak Republic
2004
Slovenia
456.863
Bulgaria Croatia 2007-09 Romania
490.817 (2004)
? Turkey 559817 (2004)
The Lisbon Strategy and the Social Agenda
• Heads of State and Government met in Lisbon (2000). Aim is to make the EU “the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world”
• 2005 under the “revamped” Lisbon strategy for employment and growth: Social Agenda with two key priorities:– Employment– Fighting poverty and equal opportunities
The Social Agenda: employment
• Creating a European labour market, through enabling workers to take pension and social security entitlements with them when they work in a different Member States and by establishing an optional framework for collective bargaining across frontiers; the Commission will also examine transition periods for workers from new Member States;
• Getting more people into better jobs, particularly through the European Youth Initiative and supporting women in (re-)entering the labour market;
• Updating labour law to address needs created by new forms of work, i.e. particular short term contracts; a new health and safety strategy;
• Managing the process of restructuring through the social dialogue.
The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities
• Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography
• Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty;
• Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma;
• Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute;
• Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.
The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities
• Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography
• Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty;
• Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma;
• Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute;
• Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.
Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004).
COHESION
Indicators of total inequality in EU-15
9.212.413.820.134.9Poverty (20$ a day)
1.11.11.02.210.4Absolute poverty (10$/day)
0.0070.0080.0080.0090.0160.017- Across-countries
0.1520.1520.1420.1450.1300.152- Within-country
0.1590.1600.1500.1540.1460.169Theil Index
0.3080.3090.3030.3010.2990.32Gini Coefficient
1.861.861.731.771.732.01Top 5% / Bottom 20%
200019981995199019801970Tot. inequality indicator
0.8550.1900.2550.2200.160Total inequality
0.513-0.0850.0640.008“between-country” inequality
0.342-0.1700.1560.152“within-country” inequality
World (1995)
USA (1995)
EU27Turkey (1998)
EU27 (1998)
EU15 (1998)
Inequality Index(Theil index)
Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004).
COHESION
Inequalities in the enlarged EU vs. the USA and the world
Age structure and sustainability
• The age structure of a population at a given time t is the function of:– Fertility and mortality between about t-100 and t– Immigration and emigration between about t-100
and t
• Moreover, the age structure of a population carries what is defined as ‘population momentum’: those who will be aged 40 in 20 years are already born…