The Future of the Economic, Social and Business environments · The Future of the Economic, Social...
Transcript of The Future of the Economic, Social and Business environments · The Future of the Economic, Social...
WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Phil Ruthven AM, Chairman
The Future of the Economic, Social and Business environments
The Future of the Economic, Social and Business environments
2015 General Assembly
Shangri La, Sydney
Tuesday 19 May, 2015
Topics
1. Global Economic Direction
2. Population & Lifestyle Direction
3. Industries Direction
4. Endnote: GS1 into the future?
World GDP GrowthReal growth (PPP), 1950-2016 (F)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Pe
r c
en
t
1950-1969 growthin US$ market terms
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms
IMF/OECD/Economist//IBISWorld: 09/05/15
* The world decline in 2009 was -2.0% when
measured in $US market price terms
2012 3.0%
2013 3.1%
2014 3.1%
2015 3.0% (F)
2016 2.9% (F)
The World’s Economic Regions In 2015Share of World GDP (ppp basis)
2015 World GDP, $US 96.7 trillion
C&SAmerica
6.1%
North America
23.0%
W&C Europe19.0%
EasternEurope
3.6%
Asia Pacific
31.0%Africa
4.0%
ME6.0%
IndianS-C7.2%
IBISWorld 03/03/15
World Regions ImportanceChanging importance, % of World GDP (ppp terms)
Source: OECD 31/03/15
26.1%17.0% 16.3%
32.1% 36.0%4.2%
5.0%
10.5%
2.7%
3.6%
3.1%
4.5%
3.5%
5.0%
7.6%
8.6%9.6%
2.0%
4.5%
33.6%
35.5%
27.3%
23.5%
14.5%
2.0%
3.5%
6.7%
6.8%
7.0%
12.7%22.8%
30.5%24.0%
18.0%
1870 1913 1950 1998 20251.1 2.7 5.3 33.7 190.0 GDP (trillion)
1870 1913 1950 1998 2025 Year
Nth America
C & S America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Middle EastAfrica
Indian S-C
Asia Pacific
12.2%
7.6%
3.6%
World’s 30 Largest Economies2015 (E)
World’s 230 nations
US$ 97 trillion
Italy 2.1%S. Korea 1.9%Canada 1.7%Spain 1.6%Indonesia 1.5%Turkey 1.4%Australia 1.1% 17thIran 1.1%Saudi Arabia 1.1%Taiwan 1.1%
11th – 20th Nations 14.4%
19.0% USA
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms
Rest of World(200 nations)
15.0%
Japan
5.2%
2.1
%
IMF/IBISWorld 05/01/15
Poland 0.9%Argentina 0.9%Thailand 0.8%Thailands 0.8%Netherlands 0.8%S. Africa 0.7%Pakisthan 0.6%Egypt 0.6%Malaysia 0.6%Colombia 0.6%
-4.0
0.6
0.81.1
2.02.02.0
2.42.52.62.62.8
[VALUE]
3.13.23.3
3.95.1
6.97.6
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RussiaBrazil
ItalyJapan
FranceGermany
CanadaIran
AustraliaUK
SpainUSA
MexicoWorld
S. KoreaTurkeyPolandTaiwan
IndonesiaChinaIndia
Economic Growth: 2015(F)20 Largest Economies (ppp ranking)
Economist/IBISWorld 09/05/15
World Growth
2015 (F), 3.0%
-0.9
0.4
1.2
1.21.51.6
2.12.22.2
2.42.5
2.82.92.9[VALUE]
3.33.4
3.63.7
5.66.7
8.1
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RussiaItaly
BrazilJapan
FranceGermany
CanadaIran
SpainUK
USATaiwan
AustraliaWorld
S. KoreaMexicoPolandTurkey
IndonesiaChinaIndia
Economic Growth: 2016(F)20 Largest Economies (ppp ranking)
Economist/IBISWorld 09/05/15
World Growth
2016 (F), 2.9%
184152
112949393
8573
625958
4645
433939
352930
2316
1110
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
GreeceJapan
ItalyFrance
USAUK
SpainIndia
WorldPoland
GermanyTaiwan
MedxicoBrazil
CanadaNetherlands
TurkeyS Korea
ChinaIndonesiaAustralia
RussiaIran
Government Net Debt 2015(F)
Largest nations (+ Greece) % of GDP
IBISWorld 05/04/15
Trouble
Trouble
Trouble
Trouble
Serious trouble
Diabolical troubleDiabolical trouble
-4.4
-4.5
-4.4
-4.2
-4.1
-4.1
-3.5
-3.4
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.5
-2.3
-1.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7-1.5
[VALUE]
0.5
0.7
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
BrazilSpain
UKFrance
IranIndia
GreeceMexico
ItalyChina
AverageRussia
USAAustralia
NetherlandsIndonesia
CanadaTurkeyPolandTaiwan
S. KoreaGermany
Government Budget Balances: 2015(E)Largest Economies (+ Greece) (% of GDP basis)
The Economist/IBISWorld 09/05/15
Taxation In The Major Economies % of GDP basis 2014
61212
1718
262727
2828
293030
323233
343535
3739
4041
434344
4546
4749
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
IranIndonsia
TaiwanChinaIndia
AustraliaKorea S
USAAustralia
JapanSwitzerland
RussiaMexicoCanada
AVERAGETurkeyPoland
NZOECD Average
SpainUK
NetherlandsGermany
ItalyAustriaFinlandFrance
SwedenBelgium
Denmark
Source: IBISWorld 04/05/15
Total taxation & other revenue as a share of GDP
“Nanny state” risk?
Developing economies
Average
OECD average
Developed economies
Source: Wikipedia 30/04/14
1719
2020
2122
25252525252525
29.83030303030
3131.4
33.334
3845
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
TaiwanPolandTurkeyRussia
UKS Korea
NetherlandsIndonesia
ChinaSwitzerland
ChinaIreland
IranGermanyAustraliaAverage
NZSpain
MexicoCanada
ItalyFrance
BrazilJapan
USA
Tax Rate (%)
Corporate Income Taxes2014
Maximums Federal 35% State 10%
13.0
10.3
9.5
7.9
7.9
6.1
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
0.80.6
0.6
0.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brazil
Russia
Turkey
India
Indonesia
Mexico
AVERAGE
China
Australia
Poland
S Korea
USA
UK
Italy
Canada
Spain
France
Netherlands
German7
Japan
Interest Rates10-year Bond Rate May 2015
The Economist 09/05/15
25.4
23.0
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.3
10.6
8.9
8.6
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.2
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.5
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
GreeceSpain
ItalyPoland
IranTurkeyFrance
NetherlandsIndia
CanadaAVERAGE
GermanyAustralia
BrazilRussia
IndonesiaUSA
MexicoChina
S KoreaTaiwanJapan
Unemployment 2015Significant Economies Mainly March-April
The Economist/IBISWorld 09/05/15
Full employment <5% of labour force
58.4
57.3
39.7
29.7
27.2
23.7
21.6
20.4
20.1
15.8
14.5
13.8
13.6
12.3
12.2
11.0
10.5
10.1
9.9
9.4
7.8
6.8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
GreeceSpain
ItalyIran
PolandFrance
IndonesiaTurkey
AverageUSA
RussiaCanada
BrazilTaiwan
AustraliaNetherlands
IndiaChina
S. KoreaMexico
GermanyJapan
Youth Unemployment 2013Significant Economies
The Economist/IBISWorld 16/04/15
Importance of World Regions GDP (ppp terms) 2015
$US ppp 96.7 trillion
IBISWorld: 08/05/15
Asia Pacific
31.0%
North America
23.0%
AfricaMiddle East %
WesternEurope
19.1%
Economy Population
7.2 billion
E.
Eu
rop
e 3
.6%
Africa11.5%
IndianS/C23.1%
Asia Pacific
33.6%
6.0%4.0%
World’s 25 Largest Populations2015
World’s 230 nations
7.3 billion
Mexico 1.7%Philippines 1.4%Ethiopia 1.3%Vietnam 1.3%Germany 1.2%
Indonesia
3.5%
19.3% China
Rest of World(180 Nations)
13.1%
IBISWorld 22/08/13
2.4
%
2.2
%
Egypt 1.1%Iran 1.1%Turkey 1.0%Congo 0.9%Thailand 0.9%
16th - 205h Nations 5.0%
World’s Languages1
2014 (E)
Population
7.2 billion(230 nations/sovereign states)
English2
8.5%
20.0% Chinese(several dialects)
Other2
15.4%
Russian 3.1%
IBISWorld 25/09/14
Vietnamese 1.2%Turkish 1.2%
Wu (Tibet) 1.3%Korean 1.3%
German 2.1%
1 Spoken as 1st or 2nd language
2 English is the most widely spoken language (105 nations) or the official language (a further
83 nations); around a quarter of world population
World Religious Affiliation2013
23.8%
Islam
31.0% Christianity
7.2 billion
Source: Wikipedia
Catholic, Protestant, AICs
Eastern Orthodox, Pentecostal,
Latter-Day Saints,
Jehovah’s Witness, Nominal etc
Religious Extremism
Al Qaeda, Taliban
Messianic ZionismGush Emunim
Mediaeval Crusades,Spanish Inquisituion,
Klu Klux KlanMoral Majority
Hindu Nationalism
* Voodoo (Vodun) is the world’s oldest religion,
around 6000BC
Buddhism 7.3%
World Political Systems2013
72.5%
Democracy
7.2 billion
Source: CIA Factbook
Republic, parliamentary
democracy, federations
* Theocratic, monarchial,
military, dictatorship etcIran Iraq Syria
Afghanistan EgyptUzbekistan Cambodia
Others
Democracy In Practice?
�Democracy, in practice, is nowhere near 70% of the world population. A true and fair democracy is expensive. It requires a SOL of over $25,000/capita to ensure fair elections, an adequate and honest judiciary, and reasonably corrupt-free military and police forces via taxation. And within that level, it requires the tax capability to provide also a measure of egalitarianism via support to the unemployed, aged, sick and illiterate members of society: somewhere between $5-10,000 in taxes
�So, there is a long long way to go before democracy actually can work in developing economies.
NZ Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to March 2015
50556065707580859095
100105110115120125130135140145
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year commencing June
Happy 68% of last 35 years
87% of last 20 years
Recession Level
Source: Roy Morgan Research IBIS estimates 23/04/15
China Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to October 2014
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Source: Trading Economics/IBISWorld 12/12/14
USA Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year commencing June
Recession Level
Source: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index April 2015
Happy 46% of last 33 years
Canadian Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2015
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year commencing June
Recession Level
Source: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. April 2015
Happy 23% of last 31 years
Germany Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Happy % of last 40 years% of last 20 years
Source: OECD / IBISWorld 14/05/15
UK Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to March 2015
4550556065707580859095
100105110115120125130135140145
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Happy 12.4% of last 41 years13.3% of last 20 years
Recession Level
OECD EC Indicator 23/4/15
France Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source: OECD / IBISWorld 14/05/15
Our Changing Society in the New AgeThe developed nations
� Living longer
� More generations co-existing
� Living with more leisure
� Smaller/different households
� Moving to coast and equator
� Changing ethnic mix
� New tribalism (less local)
� A stabilising divorce rate
� Rising incomes & wealth
� Apartment living rising
� Home leasing on the rise
� More spending on services
� Outsourcing tasks and chores
� Rise of virtual shopping
� Living with ICT
� The Internet/Information age
� Increasing knowledge
� Increasing financial literacy
� New entertainment & sports
� Electronic “guardian angels”
� Working differently
� New industries/ occupations
� Changing spirituality
� Outlawing discrimination
� Changing politics (ideologies)
� Ecological sensitivity
Living Longer And Working LongerAustralian Life Expectancy And The Retirement Age of Male Australians
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
18
00
18
10
18
20
18
30
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics, IBISWorld
Who would want to be retired for 30+ yearsin 2100; and could the nation afford it?
Female life expectancy
Our many Generations In 2015
Australia24 million persons (F2015)
Older Civics(91+ years)
0.8%
Gen Zers(<14 years)
Net Generation (Y)
14-33 years
Silents73-90 years
Baby Boomers50-72 years
17.8%
IBISWorld 08/05/15
Generational Types
Civics
Adaptives
Idealists
Reactives
Changing Household Expenditure% of total basis
6.913.2
7.4 7.9 10.06.6
1.26.8
9.3
10.3
14.7 13.9 10.9 15.4
11.9
12.3
1.0
2.0 3.9 5.1 5.96.5
6.8
8.18.0
7.0 6.07.9 10.1
11.2
12.6
13.7
3.0
3.8 2.82.6
2.5
2.4
3.4
3.6
1.5
3.3 7.16.5
6.3
6.6
8.5
6.3
2.5
3.0
6.75.9
5.14.4
5.3
4.2
3.5
3.0
3.03.4
3.6
3.54.5
6.9
2.0
6.8
7.310.7
13.815.0 16.3
13.9
7.8
10.6
9.7
8.5
7.2
6.5 6.3
4.7
54.0
36.230.3
26.4 23.320.0 20.7
16.9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.3 4.8 14 30 118 360 543 1352 $ billions
1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
Non-durables
Durables1
Taxes (direct)
Health & Education
Hospitality
Entertainment/Recn
Communications/fares
Other services
Rent
Finance & Ins Serv
Capital Related
Savings
Note: 1 Durables includes cars, furniture, electricals, electronics etc
Industry Mix in 2014Australian shares of GDP, in F2013 price terms
ABS 5206-26 IBISWorld 08/03/15
Agriculture
2.3% Utilities2.7%
GDP $1.6 trillion
Finance & Insurance
Mining
8.5%
Govt. Adm. 5.3%7.9% Construction
8.5%
Info Media & Communications
Cult & Rec. Serv.0.8%
Pers. & Other Serv.
Hospitality
SectorsPrimary
Secondary
Tertiary
Quaternary
Quinary
Admin. & Support Services
Note 1: includes stat. discrepancy (0.2%)
Rental, Hiring &
Real Estate
2.8%
1 Less subsidies, + stat discrep
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Note: At market prices to 1940, at factor cost thereafter Source: N.G Butlin, ABS & IBISWorld 8.01.15
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2050
Changing Importance of Industries Australia Shares of GDP by Industry Division, 1800-2050
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2050
AgricultureMining
Manufacturing
UtilitiesConstruction
W’Sale Trade
Retail Trade Transport, Postal
Media & Telecom
Finance & Insurance
Rental, Hiring. R Estate
Dwelling O’Ship
Prof & Tech Services
Admin Services
Public Admin/Safety
Ind taxes less subsidies
Education
Hospitality
Health & Social Assist
Arts & Recreation Personal & Other Serv
PrimarySector
SecondarySector
TertiarySector
QuaternarySector
QuinarySector
Fastest Growing Industries in the New AgeNew Age 1965-2040s
� ICT & Fast Broadband - the New Age all-pervasive utility.
� Knowledge Industries - databases & multi-media services.
� Business Services - outsourcing non-core functions.
� Financial Services - outsourcing of transactions/investment.
� Property Services - outsourcing ownership, facilities mgt.
� Health - outsourcing home doctoring.
� Education - outsourcing pre-school, plus universities.
� Personal & Household Services - outsourcing chores.
� Hospitality & Tourism - outsourcing the kitchen and travel
� Recreation & Cultural Services - outsourcing leisure.
� Mining - energy minerals (oil, gas, coal, uranium)
� Construction - cyclical, but growing importance of civil work
� Transport – cyclical, but growth in road, air and pipeline and F/F
� Biotechnology & Nanotechnology - New Age technologies
� Environmental Services - testing, assessment, amelioration
The Industry Input-output Chain For Goods
Agriculture
MiningConsumers
Imports
WholesalingRetailing
&
Other FinalResellers
Exports
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
CapitalExpenditure
Most PowerLeast Power
Households
Government
The New Post-industrial Age, after the mid-1960s
Barcoding is playing a vital role in the logistics and efficiency of domestic and international input-put chains
Power Points In The Input-Output Chain
AgricultureMining Consumer
Imports
WholesalingRetailing
&Other FinalResellers
Exports
Manufactg.Crude
ModerateElaborate
CapitalExpenditure
Industrial Age (1865-1964)
Most Power
Least PowerMost Power
Least Power New Infotronics Age (1965-2040s)
Vertical Integration/alliances Vertical Integration/alliances
In the Industrial Age, each link in the chain usually operated independently
Most Power
The Retail Revolutions
1820s Specialty stores emerge to challenge General Stores.
1890s Chain stores emerge to challenge sole operators.
1960s Self-service stores emerge to replace service stores. Supermarkets led the way. Prices fell.
2010s Online shopping emerged as part of the digital age. eBay, Amazon become the new department stores as well as there being specialty online retailers. Prices plummeting in many cases. Employment falls
The Future
� The past has seen GS1 revolutionise the world of commerce with the introduction of globally unique identification, scanning, barcodes RFID.
� While GS1 may not revolutionise the future at large it has a critical role to play as the keeper and provider of product data. The future is filled with endless opportunities!
� Among the continuing challenges are: assisting stock minimization; the reduction of waste; faster response to changing consumer preferences; forward planning; and cashflows.
� With more and more retail going on line, data is vital. Indeed accurate data is becoming more and more critical.
� Information about goods and services purchased on line must be made available to consumers who are looking for more information about what they purchase and where it comes from.
� Consumers are wanting to make choices based on a whole range of things:
� sustainability of the product, � where it was produced, � who produced it, � where did the raw material come from, � how was the transportation handled.
� Consumers want the products they purchase to be safe, whether it’s food or otherwise, they want total visibility, transparency and information that they can trust and rely on