The Future of Tax Credit Rental Housing in Indiana
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Transcript of The Future of Tax Credit Rental Housing in Indiana
The Future of Tax Credit Rental Housing in Indiana
Robert VogtSeptember 14, 2005
Where Are We Headed in Indiana?
• Interest rates are rising discouraging the flood of first time homebuyers
• Job opportunities are increasing• Rentals are becoming an
acceptable permanent housing alternative
• Occupancies are on the way up
Where Are the Opportunities?
• Where do we stand now?
• Where is the growth?
• Where is the supply?
• Where is the future
opportunity?
Penetration Rate Calculation
• Comparison of existing Tax Credit units with the number of income-qualified renter households
• Provides macro view of Tax Credit market
• Higher the penetration rate, less likely area can support additional Tax Credit product (saturation)
Penetration Rate Calculation
• Analysis ignores Tax Credit
government subsidized projects
(preservation deals)
• Analysis ignores family versus senior
units
• Project to 2010 to identify
opportunities
Estimating Future Demand• Estimate change in income-qualified
renter households• Source of data: HISTA (Household Income Size
Tenure Age)– Cross tabulation of multiple variables– Current year estimates and 5-year projections
• 2005 - 2010– Finer income bands designed for use in low-income projects
• $10,000 ranges up to $60,000– More reliable demand estimates than traditional techniques
• Evident in analysis of elderly where most households are less than 3-person
Estimating Current Supply• State lists (IHCDA web site)
– Units in existing LIHTC properties– Government subsidized Tax Credit
properties are lumped in with conventional Tax Credit
• Thorough field analysis needed to obtain exact supply numbers and verify LIHTC program participation
Qualified Income Range for Renter Households
Methodology• Qualified Income Range
– 2005 Income Limits– Max Income (60% 4-person max allowable
income)– Min Income (50% 1-bedroom maximum rent)– 35% Rent-to-Income Ratio
• For 2010, income range projections were adjusted to reflect increase in household income
Approximate Current Penetration Rates
• Higher estimated rates clustered in eastern/central Indiana
• Lower estimated rates in northwestern and southwestern Indiana
• Currently an estimated 10 Counties (10.9%) below 8.0% penetration
Approximate Current
Penetration Rates
Highest/Lowest Penetration Rates
Highest• Franklin (49.1%)• Blackford (47.2%)• Ohio (47.2%)• Rush (44.2%)• Dekalb (42.3%)
Lowest• White (0.0%)• Brown (0.0%)• Spencer (0.0%)• Daviess (2.3%)• LaPorte (2.8%)
Renter Occupied
Households Estimated
Change (2005-2010)
Renter Occupied Households Estimated Change (2005-2010)
Top 5 Counties• Hamilton (20.1%)• Hendricks (17.6%)• Johnson (10.4%)• Boone (10.3%) • Hancock (10.2%)
Bottom 5 Counties• Fayette (-5.5%)• Martin (-3.7%)• Wabash (-3.6%)• Perry (-3.4%)• Rush (-3.1%)
Renter Income Qualified
Households Estimated
Change (2005-2010)
Renter Income Qualified Households Estimated Change
(2005-2010)
Top 5• Hamilton (20.8%)• Hendricks (14.8%)• Boone (10.9%)• Whitley (8.8%)• Johnson (8.0%)
Bottom 5• Vermillion (-
13.5%)• Warren (-11.2%)• Fountain (-
10.6%)• Perry (-10.0%)• Fayette (-8.1%)
3+ Person Renter
Households Estimated
Change (2005-2010)
3+ Person Renter Households Estimated Change (2005-2010)
Top 5 Counties• Hendricks (21.1%)• Hamilton (17.8%)• Boone (12.0%)• Johnson (10.1%) • Hancock (10.1%)
Bottom 5 Counties• Martin (-8.7%)• Union (-6.5%)• Floyd (-6.4%)• Fayette (-6.3%)• Newton (-6.2%)
Renter Households Age 55+ Estimated Change (2005-
2010)
Renter Households Age 55+ Estimated Change (2005-2010)
Top 5 Counties• Hamilton (39.5%)• Hendricks (32.4%)• Brown (24.8%)• Porter (24.0%) • Crawford (23.9%)
Bottom 5 Counties• Perry (-2.8%)• Fayette (0.8%)• Benton (3.0%)• Jay (4.0%)• Martin (4.5%)
Approximate Future Penetration Rates (2010)
• Assumes no additional supply• Assesses effect of income qualified
household growth on current product supply levels
• Indicates potential for additional product
Approximate Future
Penetration Rates (2010)
Approximate Future Penetration Rates (2010)
Highest Penetration• Franklin (51.6%)• Blackford (50.1%)• Ohio (49.1%)• Rush (47.4%)• Dekalb (42.9%)
Lowest Penetration• Brown (0.0%)• White (0.0%)• Spencer (0.0%)• Daviess (2.3%)• LaPorte (2.8%)
Issues• Does not differentiate between
senior and family projects• Does not evaluate quality of
existing rental housing• Does not consider affordability of
other housing choices (including rental)
Issues• Does not analyze site specific
market areas• Does not consider current
occupancy rates• Does not account for government
subsidized Tax Credit units• Does not evaluate impact of HCVs
For Additional Information
Robert VogtVogt Williams & Bowen, LLC
869 W. Goodale Blvd.Columbus, OH 43212
www.vwbresearch.com
614.225.9500