The Future of Mobility - National Association of Insurance ......The Future of Mobility: Automated...
Transcript of The Future of Mobility - National Association of Insurance ......The Future of Mobility: Automated...
The Future of Mobility: Automated Driving, Connected Cars, and Shared Mobility National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) – October 9, 2018
Carla Bailo
President & CEO, Center for Automotive Research
2CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR)
Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public
policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums.
Consortia that bring together industry stakeholders in working groups and offer networking opportunities and access to CAR staff.
RESEARCH EVENTS CONNECTIONSIndustry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections.
Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry.
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
Mobility: The movement of people and goods from
place to place, job to job, or one social level to another (across bridges – physical or
assumed).
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Smart Mobility: The movement of people and goods with…
TRIPLE ZERO
0
0
0
Carbon Footprint
Stress
Accidents & Fatalities
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Driver AssistanceAvailable Today
TESLA AUTOPILOT
V2X (Cadillac 2018 models)Source: Texas Instruments
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Deployment Timeline Automated Driving Systems (SAE J3016 Levels 3-5)
Audi L4 – “Highway Pilot” –
Commercial Deployment
BoschL3 – Platform – Commercial
Deployment
comma.aiL4 – Commercial Deployment
HondaL3? – “Automated HW Driving” –
Commercial Deployment
Lyft (with GM) L4 –Taxi – Commercial
Deployment
Nissan L4 – “Autonomous Drive” –
Commercial Deployment
2getthereL4 – Fixed Route Shuttle –Commercial Deployment
BMW (with Mobileye)L4/5 – “Highly/Fully –
Commercial Deployment
Continental (with Nvidia)L2-5 – Platform – Commercial
Deployment
Daimler (with Bosch and Nvidia)
L4 – Taxi – Commercial Deployment
Ford (with Argo.AI)L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle –
Production Ready
UberL4 – Taxi – Commercial
Deployment
VolvoL4 – Commercial Deployment
Aptiv (with Mobileye)L4/5 – “Turnkey Solution”
Daimler (with Bosch and Nvidia)
L4 – Taxi – Pilot
GM (with Cruise)L4 – Taxi – “Commercial
Launch at Scale”
TeslaL4 – Personal Vehicle/Taxi –
Commercial Deployment
Nissan – 2022 – L4/5 – Taxi – Commercial Deployment
Honda – 2025 – L4 – Commercial Deployment
Toyota – L4 – “Chauffeur” – Commercial Deployment
Volkswagen – L4 – Commercial Deployment
AptivL4 – Taxi – Pilot
EasymileL4 – Fixed Route Shuttle – Pilot
GM (with Cruise)L4 – Taxi – Pilot
Voyage L4 – Taxi – Pilot
Waymo L4 – Taxi – Pilot
Aptiv (with Lyft)L4 – Taxi – Pilot
drive.aiL4 - Taxi – Pilot
Ford (with Argo.AI)L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle –
Pilot
May Mobility L4 – Fixed Route Shuttle –
Pilot
NuroL4 – Delivery Vehicle – Pilot
nuTonomy (with Lyft)L4 – Taxi – Pilot
2getthere – 2006 – L4 – Shuttle on Dedicated Lane – Commercial
Deployment
Navya – 2016 – L4 – Shuttle on Dedicated Lane – Pilot
Uber – 2016 – L4 –Taxi – Pilot (suspended)
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And Coming Soon (Very Soon in Some Cases)!Prototypes, Test Vehicles, Early Deployment Vehicles
Waymo
Drive.ai
Robo-Taxis
Navya Arma
May Mobility
Low-Speed Shuttles Urban Delivery
Nuro
Ford
Long-Haul Freight
Daimler
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WaymoPhoenix area, AZ (since Apr 2017)
AptivLas Vegas, NV (since May 2018) – with Lyft Singapore, SG (since 2017)
Drive.aiFrisco, TX (Jul – Dec 2018)
nuTonomyBoston, MA (since Dec 2017) – with LyftSingapore, SG (since 2018)
UberPittsburgh, PA (Sept 2016 – March 2018)Tempe area, AZ (Feb 2017 – Mar 2018)
GM/CruiseSan Francisco, CA (since Sept 2017)
VoyageSan Jose, CA (since Sept 2017)
Robo-taxi
NavyaSion, CH (Jun 2016)Lyon, FR (since Sept 2016)Paris (since Jul 2017)Las Vegas, NV (since Nov 2017)Neuhausen Rheinfall, CH (since Mar 2018)Ann Arbor, MI (since Jun 2018)
EasyMileArlington, TX (since Aug 2017)Berlin, DE (since Dec 2017)San Ramon, CA (since Apr 2018)Forus, NW (since Jun 2018)
2getthereCapelle aan den IJssel, NL (since Dec 2006)Masdar City, UAE (since Nov 2010)
May MobilityDetroit, MI (since Jul 2018)
Low-speed shuttle
FordAnn Arbor, MI (Sept 2017) – with Domino’sMiami, FL (Feb – Apr 2018) – with Domino’s Miami, FR (since Mar 2018) – with Postmates
NuroScottsdale, AZ (since Aug 2018) – with Kroger
Urban delivery
Daimler Nevada (since May 2015)Oregon (since Sept 2017)
Uber Arizona (Nov 2017 –Mar 2018)
WaymoAtlanta, GA (since May 2018)
Long-haul freight
Automated Vehicle Deployment ModelsPilots and Early Deployments
Note: For robo-taxis, low-speed shuttles, and urban delivery, only pilots and early deployments open to the general public or to a select user group are included.
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Market Share: Segment BreakdownU.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2018 YTD Through September
1.3%
3.6%
4.7%
5.5%
8.4%
9.8%
13.1%
16.3%
37.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Large Car
Electrified
Luxury Car
Van
SUV
Middle Car
Small Car
Pickup
CUV
Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research
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Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change2018 YTD vs. 2017 YTD Through September
Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research
-15.9%
-15.4%
-13.4%
-13.4%
-1.8%
4.3%
5.5%
11.9%
12.3%
0.3%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Middle Car
Small Car
Luxury Car
Large Car
Van
Pickup
SUV
Electrified
CUV
Total
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Automated Vehicle Interior Concepts
Adient concept: rotating seats Office on wheels
Enhanced accessibility
Mercedes concept: rear-facing seats
GM concept: no steering wheel or pedals
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Convergence of Automated, Connected, Electrified, and Shared Vehicle TechnologyImpact on Vehicle Design
• Largest structural impact will come due to change of powertrain
• Exterior design might not be an important differentiator for consumers anymore (especially for shared, automated)
• Integration of sensors will be a priority for designers
• New challenges and innovations (e.g., biometrics, flexible seating, scratch and bacteria resistance) will emerge
• The end of driver-centric design?
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Driving Automation Impact on Insurance
Impact of driving automation:
• Fewer claims and lower premiums (?)
• Significant shifts in coverage only at L4-L5
• Less focus on: driver’s motor vehicle record and characteristics
• More focus on: vehicle physical attributes, where and how the vehicle is used
Paradigm shifts:
• Apportioning blame to driver andmanufacturer/suppliers
• Greater reliance on product liability
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Driving Automation Levels and Challenges in Apportioning Liability
• Assigning liability for SAE L1 to L3
• Lengthy litigation between manufacturers, suppliers, and vehicle operator/driver
• Shifting from driver-focused insurance laws to vehicle-focused laws
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Guidelines for the Insurance Industry
• Strengthen technical underwriting capabilities and AV knowledge
• Prepare for incremental changes to cost structures
• Prepare to navigate with insufficient or incomplete data, and exploit emerging sources
• Explore new categories of risks
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Connected Vehicle Applications
• V2V & V2I Communication
• Autonomous Navigation & Collision
Avoidance
• Location Based Services
• Smart & Resilient Infrastructure
Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU
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Internet of Things and Transportation
• Multimodal Integrated Payment & Trip Planning
• Shared pick-up and drop-off vehicles
• Seamless integration of travel data
• Better Modeling
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Internet of Things Applications in Cities
• New and Improved Infrastructure
• Decreased Carbon Footprint
• Ensured Safety by Location
• Infrastructure Monitoring
Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU
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Digital Twin Technology for Smart Cities
Digital twin is the best way for cities to manage growth and becoming “smart”…
• Digitization of physical assets and systems -transportation, communications, infrastructure etc.
• While initial investment may seem high, over time robustness will increase and costs will come down
• Enables modeling of physical assets, systems and potential strategies
• To optimize operations, processes and solutions
Image Source: http://www.atdi.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/coverage_lte_ics_designer2.jpg
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Leveraging Ubiquitous Connectivity for the Insurance Sector
Impact of vehicle connectivity:
• Abundance of real-world data
• More predictability, less fraud
Paradigm shifts:
• New risks: cyber threats at the individual, vehicle, fleet, infrastructure level
Guidelines:
• Establish advanced analytics capabilities
• Plan for product and business-line shifts
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Shared Mobility Services
Shared mobility services are transportation solutions enabled by emerging technologies and wireless connectivity that allow for more convenient, efficient, and flexible travel.
RIDESOURCING CARSHARING
RIDESHARING BIKESHARING
MICROTRANSIT
MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE
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E n h a n ce d Human Ser v i ces ( E H S )
M u l t i - M o d a l T r i p P l a n n i n g
A p p l i c a t i o n
I n t e g r a t e d C o m m o n P a y m e n t
S y s t e m
I n c l u s i v e
M o b i l i t y
Common Payment Systems
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New services
New vehicle concepts
New functionalities
New ownership
models
New business
partnerships
Shared Mobility Services Opportunities for the Auto Industry
The rise of shared mobility services is part of a mobility evolution that brings many opportunities for the auto industry.
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Major Automakers’ Partnerships Related to Mobility, Connectivity, and Driving Automation
Acquisition
Investment
Subsidiary / Brand
Partnership
TRI-AD
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RidesourcingAdoption
Adoption and Utilization of Ridesourcing in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Source: Clewlow, Regina R. and Gouri Shankar Mishra (2017). Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States, UC Davis
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Growth of North American Carsharing Programs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Jan)
Members North America 211,170 318,898 377,597 516,100 639,428 908,584 1,146,374 1,625,652 1,526,532 1,837,854 1,927,228
Vehicles North America 6,492 7,507 9,768 10,405 10,381 15,795 20,784 24,210 25,224 26,691 24,629
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Yearly data represents July numbers, unless otherwise specified. Totals include one-way and round-trip carsharing and exclude P2P programs. Proxies were used for five of the 32 round-trip operators.
Source: Shaheen, S., Cohen, A., Jaffee, M (2018). Innovative Mobility: Carsharing Outlook, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley.
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Source: Shared Use Mobility Center
Shared Mobility Services in North America
600+ cities with ridesourcing
20+ cities with pooled rides
10+ cities with microtransit
400+ cities with carshare (round trip, free floating, P2P)
400+ cities with bikeshare (stationed, dockless) & scooters
28CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCHSource: Shared Use Mobility Center, CAR research
Shared Mobility Services in North America Pooled rides and ridesharing
Bikesharing (stationed)
Carsharing (P2P)Carsharing (round trip)
Microtransit
Carsharing (free floating)
Ridesourcing
Bikesharing (dockless) Scooter sharing
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Insuring Manually Operated Mobility Services
Paradigm shifts:
• Vandalism and theft will become more prevalent risk categories
Challenges:
• Adoption of mobility services will vary by geography and demographics
• How to insure a vehicle used for personal use and ridesourcing and carsharing?
• Will we need ‘safety profiles’ for every mobility user and operator?
Guidelines:
• Retrain claims adjusters to interpret intricacies of shared mobility services
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Insuring Automated Mobility Services
Paradigm shifts:
• From driver-centric insurance to mobility operator-centric
Challenges:
• Threat from non-traditional competitors (manufacturers, mapping companies, startups)
Guidelines:
• Develop new insurance products (e.g., coverage against sensor or communication failure, recall risk, risks related to infrastructure)
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