The Future of Mobility

W i l l i a m N . D u c k I V

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Table of Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3

Demographic change, increased urbanization, and Social trends ................................. 4

Vehicle Technology, and Driverless Operation ............................................................ 7

Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain Technologies, and Composite Chassis Fabrication ...... 10

Infrastructure Improvements ................................................................................... 13

Changing Legal Definitions, and Insurance ................................................................ 15

Summary ................................................................................................................. 16

Works Cited ............................................................................................................. 17

Cover Photo: Mercedes-Benz AMG Vision Gran Turismo Concept (Daimler AG, 2014)

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2014 Mercedes-Benz S-Class (W222) (Daimler AG, 2014)

Introduction Imagine a person getting ready for work in the morning. This person prepares as if it were any ordinary morning. This person has breakfast, gather their papers, briefcase, and walks out to their car. It is ready to go by the time the driver pulls on the door handle. The car has already wirelessly read the settings stored on the smart key, and the seat is ready with all of the adjustments along with the radio and climate controls. The driver proceeds to the highway, and isn't paying full attention and attempts to merge on the highway when the car conducts an avoidance maneuver because another car was in the blind spot, and a warning is displayed on the instrument panel. The driver regains control of the vehicle, thinking nothing of it, and continues on to work. The driver then sets the vehicle's Adaptive Cruise Control to follow the car ahead, and maintain a reasonable 55 miles per hour. The car ahead slows down, and stops suddenly due to a traffic jam. The vehicle senses this before the driver, slows down, and stops thus avoiding a rear end collision, before continuing forward. The system will also follow the bend in the road. All the vehicle requires is that the driver keep two hands on the steering wheel, while it pampers the driver with a hot stone back massage, and a symphony of music from the Burmester sound system. Just before leaving the highway the driver checks the weather, news, and Twitter feed. The driver arrives at work refreshed, and ready for the day, after the vehicle automatically avoided two potentially major accidents. This might appear to be a story of fantasy, or something that will take place in the distant future. The reality is the car outlined in the story above is already available. The car is the 2014 Mercedes-Benz S-Class (W222). The technology showcased in this car is something called Intelligent Drive. It is something that within the span of 20-30 years will be commonplace in many, if not all, vehicles. The automotive industry has demonstrated a trend about technology showcased in the latest Mercedes-Benz S-Class and how it will eventually trickle-down to every car within a couple of decades. This was previously demonstrated with Mercedes-Benzs safety innovations such as airbags, ABS, and traction control in the S-Class (Generations: W116, W126, and W140 respectively) from the 1980s. (Daimler AG, 2014)

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The automotive industry is currently undergoing a major shift towards further integration of current technology while pursuing new powertrain, and safety technologies. It is my theory in the next 20-30 years the automotive industry will need to evolve due to changes in demographics, geography, and social trends. Increased automation of automobiles will improve safety, and provide further flexibility to the driver. New sustainable powertrain technologies will conserve limited resources, and decrease emissions while offering better performance to consumers. While this is happening infrastructure improvements will need to take place to handle changes in the demographic landscape, and automobile technology. Further vehicle automation will spur a debate about changing legal definitions, about liability of autonomous vehicles, and also how to insure them. All of this change will likely be gradual, but it is important to consider the necessary changes in the industry, along with the added benefits. All of this and more are outlined in the paper; The Future of Mobility.

Demographic change, increased urbanization, and Social trends In the next fifteen to twenty years there will likely be massive demographic change in the United States, and the world. This change will transform the automotive industry. The questions are: who is going to purchase vehicles in the future, how are vehicles going to be sold, and what kind of vehicles will consumers want? Currently in developed countries automobiles are a status symbol particularly with older generations, and often reflect the owners personality. Vehicles are also relatively expensive to operate, and suffer high depreciation. In the future cars will become more expensive to operate, and they will likely continue to lose their image as a status symbol. (Parment, 2014) Younger people are realizing that having a drivers license is not as important, and are no longer associating status and freedom with car ownership. The US Department of Transportation cited in 2008 only 31% of 16-year-olds possessed a drivers license. Younger people will likely associate automobiles with high ownership costs, and less about freedom, status, and dreams. Current studies cite that younger buyers (20-23 years old) somewhat associate cars with status. Younger buyers will likely associate freedom with access to both public transportation, and urban areas. Status will be likely conveyed by other means such as the type of mobile device or the clothes one has. (Parment, 2014) Automobile ownership in the future will not totally stop, but it will evolve. The future buyers of automobiles will have different expectations, and requirements. For example, future buyers will have much higher expectations of customer service throughout the entire purchase, and ownership process. This means that dealerships will need to invest in their facilities to be more inviting, and deliver very high customer service to be even considered. Research suggests, that among

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younger buyers attractive dealership showrooms, along with total experience, price, and salesperson attitude are important. (Parment, 2014)Dealerships will also need to consider offering ancillary services to owners while their vehicle is being serviced such as loaner vehicles, car washes, and free Wi-Fi. (Parment, 2014) Research suggests that car ownership will change, moving towards more leasing, and sharing schemes. Increased urbanization will increase the cost of automobile ownership, and decrease the desirability of ownership. Future consumers will still desire automobiles for trips outside the limits of public transportation. Firms will have to adapt to this change and offer new services to cater to changing consumer tastes by offering short term flexible leases, and car sharing programs. Automotive leasing can be great for consumers because it removes the risk of depreciation to the consumer, maintenance cost, and being stuck in the same car for an extended period of time. Automakers/leasing companies can clearly and easily communicate terms to consumers, and offer other services to make the leasing process from start to finish very easy. Often the consumer feels misinformed about the expectations of the lease. Mercedes-Benz Deutschland AG has established clear criteria indicated in the lease contract for damages incurred during the lease, so the consumer does not feel pressured when it comes time to turn the vehicle in. (Parment, 2014) Another form of car use that will likely grow popular will be car sharing, where the consumer pays a monthly subscription to a company like Zipcar, where they will have on demand access. The consumer simply finds a Zipcar location, scans a membership card to unlock the car, and drives away. They only need to ensure the car is kept clean, and that the fuel level is kept above tank.1 Zipcar charges the user per hour based on the car, and location in which it is being rented.2 (Zipcar, 2014) Car sharing will likely become popular for many reasons. Firstly, it allows the consumer freedom to live in an urban area without a car, but possess the ability to use one on demand. Secondly, it removes much of the responsibility for vehicle ownership like parking, security, and maintenance. Lastly, it eliminates most of the cost of owning a vehicle such as insurance, gasoline, maintenance, and depreciation. Increased migration towards urban centers will increase the costs of vehicle ownership. Car sharing will offer both convenience and freedom to consumers for casual use. There will likely be other entrants into the car sharing industry as it increases in popularity, as recently seen by Daimler AGs Car2Go to compete with the industry leader Zipcar.

1 Zipcar pays for the gas, maintenance, and insurance costs. 2 Zipcar membership are from USD 6/month, and USD 8-10/hour (Zipcar, 2014)

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Society will likely transition into living in urban areas, and will desire closer proximity to public transportation. Urban areas provide more opportunities and are associated with a more glamorous, and desirable lifestyle. Higher populations in urban areas in the future will mean that space will likely be limited and expensive requiring car ownership to evolve. (Parment, 2014) There are also new trends in vehicle design, and model range development spurred by changing consumer tastes. In the future automakers will need to cater to a broader market by offering more models. This is currently being seen in the crossover market where BMW offers five different crossovers of various sizes, and shapes based on common platforms to satisfy consumer demand.3 Mercedes-Benz is countering by offering several different derivatives based on their new compact front wheel drive platform.4

The logic behind offering more vehicles might seem counterintuitive, but it makes a lot of sense to diversify. Almost every automaker has scalable vehicle platforms suited for several different types of vehicles. General Motors for example, has developed the Gamma II platform in which the Chevrolet Cruze, and Opel Astra are based. General Motors also based the Chevrolet Trax sub-compact crossover off

Gamma II. From an engineering perspective it is relatively easy to design, develop, and manufacture new vehicles

that share a common powertrain, and electrical architecture. By offering several different model derivatives on a platform a manufacturer can diversify their model range, and spread sales over other vehicles in their product portfolio. Common platforms can empower manufacturers to efficiently, and quickly design vehicles for market without a lot of added cost or development time. It can also enable manufacturers to easily discontinue a particular model if it is not popular. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010) In conclusion, the future will likely be home to a totally new automotive marketplace due to changing demographics, buying/usage patterns, urbanization, and consumer trends. Firstly, vehicle dealerships should look for solutions to improve customer service, and offer ancillary services. Secondly, leasing and car sharing will likely continue to grow as more people live in urban areas. Lastly, automakers should look forward to increased growth and diversification of their model range.

3 BMW currently offers the X1, X3, X4, X5, and X6. 4 Mercedes-Benz will be offering the GLA, which is based on the A/B-Class compact car.

Chevrolet Trax sub-compact crossover (General Motors, 2014)

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Vehicle Technology, and Driverless Operation

Currently the automotive industry is indicating trends in three major areas: vehicle infotainment/communication systems, and vehicle safety. These three areas seem to conflict with each other, however more often than not the future automobile will be safer as a result of improvements in all of these areas. Integrating consumer technology in the automobile will not only be value added, but it will also likely be a competitive advantage for automakers. It is important to consumers to have seamless integration with their smartphone while driving, to listen to music, or access contacts for their Bluetooth telephone. Apple just recently announced partnerships with several automakers to launch CarPlay.5 Not only is this a competitive advantage for Apple, but also the automakers associated in the partnership, because consumers will be more motivated to remain loyal to Apple, and the automaker. The premise of CarPlay is to safely, and seamlessly offer the iPhone experience in supported vehicles. The user would connect their device to the vehicles infotainment system, and could use the system just like their iPhone. They could listen to their music from their iPhone, but also see all of the metadata associated with the song.6 It would also enable the user to use the navigation system on their iPhone, and other associated applications like Pandora, or Spotify.7 Lastly, CarPlay offers a very attractive user experience, continuing Apples tradition to exquisite interface design. (Apple, 2014) Partnerships between Silicon Valley and automakers are likely to increase due to their respective competitive advantages. Traditionally automakers are really good (most of the time) at designing, engineering, and manufacturing engines, chassis, interiors, basically the entire vehicle except sophisticated infotainment systems. Blunders like BMWs first generation iDrive lacked a logical user interface, or a simple controller to input commands. Automakers should focus on their core competencies, and look to Silicon Valley to design and engineer their infotainment systems. Apples foray into vehicle infotainment could be the beginning of a new trend signaling automakers to outsource their infotainment software engineering to Silicon Valley. (Costlow, 2014) In addition to improving vehicle infotainment systems, automakers can invest in making their cars communicate wirelessly with one another. This kind of technology is called vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communication. V2V enabled vehicles can offer a host of benefits including improved safety, and reductions in traffic congestion something that the US Department of Transportation has indicated interest in.

5 Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, Hyundai, Volvo, Honda, BMW Group, Chevrolet, Ford, Jaguar, KIA, Land Rover, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan, Opel, PSA Peugeot Citron, Subaru, Suzuki, and Toyota 6 Such as album art, artist, album. 7 These are streaming music services.

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A connected vehicle can provide data to other vehicles about safety hazards, such as icy roads, or low visibility. In addition connected vehicles can provide data to each other on their location to avoid an accident. If an accident were to occur, a connected vehicle could communicate its location using GPS, and accident data to emergency responders. Connected vehicles have the potential of preventing around 82% of crash scenarios. (Poorsartep, 2013) Mitigating the severity of traffic is also important, so much so, The World Health Organizations Global Status Report Road on Safety estimates that worldwide 80 million hours of productive time per annum are lost due to traffic congestion. (World Health Organization, 2013) Industry expert Mohammed Poorsartep says, We are isolated and stuck in traffic jams in costly, over-engineered, and under-utilized cars that spend a lot of time sitting parked. (Poorsartep, 2013)Connected vehicles in the future can likely help mitigate traffic congestion by optimizing available traffic information from other vehicles, and using automated vehicle technology to maximize road usage. (Poorsartep, 2013) Audi has demonstrated the potential of this technology with a system called Traffic Light Assist. The system monitors traffic lights in an urban area, and uses adaptive cruise control to avoid stopping for red lights. (Audi AG, 2014) Another goal in the automotive industry is to fully develop autonomous driving systems. Currently these systems are being prototyped by automakers, and parts suppliers, with planned introduction into consumer markets. These systems will revolutionize driving, and also improve safety. A brief history of these driving systems in the consumer market was first introduced by Mercedes-Benz, and offered on the W220 S-Class8. This system was called Distronic, and was referred to as adaptive cruise control. In general, adaptive

cruise control utilizes radar, or laser sensors to determine the distance and speed of vehicle ahead. The system will vary speed accordingly to maintain a safe distance. Currently

Mercedes-Benz offers a second generation of

this system called Distronic Plus, which can bring the vehicle to a complete stop, and continue driving along in stop and go traffic. (Mahoney, 2006)

8 W220 was launched in 1999.

Diagram illustrating the range of Distronic Plus (Daimler AG, 2014)

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A successful adaptive cruise control system is the first step in developing a truly autonomous vehicle. However, a truly autonomous vehicle is reliant upon other systems to ensure the vehicle is under control. These systems include lane keep assist, blind spot assist, very accurate GPS, and vision systems. An automaker that can master the development of all these technologies can have a successful foundation for an automated vehicle to prototype. Mercedes-Benzs W222 S-Class is pioneering automated driving, and offers a system called Intelligent Drive. It is capable of autonomous driving up to 40 miles per hour. The system is more of lite version of autonomous driving, because the driver is still required to have both hands on the steering wheel while paying full attention to the road. This innovation is the beginning of automated driving, and as the cost of developing these systems decreases it will start to trickle down through the automotive industry. (Daimler AG, 2014) Autonomous vehicles will be pivotal in improving safety for drivers, passengers, and the community. For instance, an autonomous vehicle is optimized when it can travel in a convoy within a dedicated lane on a roadway, separate from manually operated cars. The fact that an autonomous vehicle eliminates the human variable actually makes the vehicle become safer not only for the driver but also the community. According to the World Health Organizations Global Status Report on Road Safety there are eight million accidents worldwide, causing one million deaths, and 25 million injuries per annum. (World Health Organization, 2013) Further investment into autonomous vehicles could certainly help decrease the incidence of fatalities and injuries caused by vehicle accidents. The possibilities of these systems in the future are endless. One can imagine the commute to work could be a time to read news, or simply relax while the car is driving itself. Another hidden benefit could be that an autonomous vehicle could drop off a driver at work, return home (or another location), and come back to work to pick up the driver at the end of shift. This kind of transportation could lower the need for parking infrastructure in urban areas. Audi has already demonstrated this kind of technology where the driver exits the car, and activates the system on their smartphone to park the car. (Stoklosa, 2013) Both examples could also maximize driver comfort and convenience. However, there are some obstacles hindering further implementation of fully autonomous vehicles. First and foremost is the cost to the automaker for developing these systems. The cost of these systems is also quite expensive to the consumer.. Secondly, proper autonomous vehicle infrastructure such as dedicated highway lanes do not exist. Lastly, changing definitions about legal liability with automated vehicles will further hinder implementation. In closing, advancements in both vehicle infotainment and automation will be beneficial in the coming decades. Innovations in vehicle infotainment systems can make vehicles safer and easier to use while safely integrating consumer electronics

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like CarPlay has demonstrated. Connected, and autonomous vehicles will also likely increase vehicle safety, and offer drivers more comfort and convenience.

Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain Technologies, and Composite Chassis

Fabrication

Concerns about environmental preservation have increasingly been gaining momentum in the automotive industry. Automakers currently face legislation on mitigating CO2 emissions9, increasing corporate average fuel economy, and maximizing vehicle lifecycle sustainability. This trend will likely continue, and CO2 emissions, and corporate fuel economy standards are likely to become more stringent. This can create a difficult situation for automakers to continue remaining compliant with more stringent standards. Automakers must think outside the box and develop innovative solutions in fuel, powertrain, and composite technology to remain both competitive and compliant. At the same time consumer tastes are changing, and will likely favor a market where frequent changes to vehicle styling will be desired. The question posed is: In the next couple of decades what kind of vehicles will be most popular to consumers? Fuel technology innovations will be instrumental in reducing CO2 emissions, and improving fuel economy in the future. Currently there are three trends in the industry for fuel technology; these include hydrogen, electric, and compressed natural gas (CNG). Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Hydrogen fuel technology is favored by several automakers, so much so that several have ventured to develop fully functional vehicles for limited release in test markets. Hydrogen fuel cells offer efficiency, and only emit water emissions. The downside is safety of the highly flammable fuel cell when there is an accident, and also efficiently deriving hydrogen from the environment. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010) Electric vehicles are currently in vogue, and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. Many manufacturers, and even startups have developed working, salable vehicles for mass consumption. The greatest success story thus far is Tesla, not only because of its vehicles, but its charging infrastructure and sales network. However, there are several disadvantages to electric vehicles, but Tesla has seemed to overcome most them. Most consumers are quite apprehensive about range anxiety or running out of battery power. Tesla has overcome this objection by

9 26% of CO2 emissions derived from vehicular transportation. (Mazor, 2013)

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investing in superchargers along highways for owners to refuel their vehicles in about thirty minutes. Secondly, battery technology is still being refined in terms of weight and size, which is something Tesla is tirelessly working on. Electric vehicles will likely be popular in the future as fears of range anxiety subside, and battery technology is improved. (Mazor, 2013) There is also a third category of vehicle fueling technology: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). A few manufacturers have developed, and are currently selling CNG powered vehicles.10 CNG powered vehicles can offer lower CO2 emissions than both gasoline, and diesel vehicles. These types of vehicles offer more range than electric vehicles, and overcome consumer range anxiety. CNG is often cheaper than gasoline and diesel, and since most homes have natural gas piped in for heating, consumers could refuel their vehicles at home. This fuel type could see foreseeable growth in the future. (Mazor, 2013) The vehicle of the future will likely utilize different powertrain technologies to maximize power, efficiency, and driving enjoyment. Changing fuel types, and legislation will likely prompt change in powertrain design. It is likely that there will be several variants in the marketplace of powertrain technology such as hybrid, electric vehicles, and internal combustion designs. Hybrid technologies will likely remain popular into the future. This type of vehicle is similar to the Toyota Prius which has a small displacement gasoline motor with an electric motor to supplement the power the of the gasoline motor. These types of vehicles offer efficiency at a low cost, and several automakers have started offering a hybrid variant to complement each of their existing models.11 Porsche is even recognizing the performance benefits of hybrid technology, and has developed the record setting Porsche 918 hybrid sports car. By 2035 it is forecasted that these types of vehicles will be very common in the market. (Mazor, 2013) Plug-In electric vehicles (PHEV) will likely increase in popularity if automakers can overcome the fundamental objections, and concerns of consumers. Until batteries are refined, and range can be extended, vehicles will likely be equipped with a range-extender. A range-extender is a small internal combustion motor12 used as a generator when the battery is depleted. This type of system is used on the Chevrolet Volt, and BMW i3 reducing the fear of range anxiety. Internal combustion engines in the future will likely remain popular in powering vehicles or serving as a range extender on PHEVs. This type of propulsion is forecasted to remain about 60% of the market by 2035. (Mazor, 2013) This means even PHEVs will have some sort of internal combustion engine as a range extender. Gas turbine motors could also offer great efficiency, and performance using

10 Honda Civic CNG 11 Toyota Camry Hybrid, BMW Activehybrid 3, 5, 7 12 Usually

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compressed natural gas. These motors can supplement hybrids, or used as a range extender on PHEVs, and have also been prototyped by a few automakers. Another interesting trend is automakers forming partnerships with motorcycle companies, such as Volkswagen Groups recent acquisition of Ducati. Motorcycle companies are great at developing small displacement motors that are light, and efficient. Volkswagens new XL1 PHEV is being powered by a 1.2 liter V-twin from a Ducati 1199 Panigale motorcycle. The motor only weighs around 367 pounds, and is perfect for powering the ultralight XL1 hybrid. (Wolfcale, 2014) The evolution of the automobile depends on innovations in fuel, and powertrain technology. However higher efficiency is also highly dependent on lighter vehicles utilizing composite technology. Not only do composite vehicles offer higher efficiency, they are also more cost effective from a development and manufacturing standpoint. Current vehicle construction uses steel for most of the chassis, and body making up around 60 percent of the vehicles weight. The Department of Energy estimates a 10 percent reduction in a vehicles weight can improve fuel economy between 6 - 8 percent. Thus there is incentive for automakers to invest in lighter materials like aluminum, high strength steel, and carbon fiber. Carbon fiber is great because it is ultra-light and durable offering around a 50 percent weight savings versus steel. It is likely that the increased utilization of carbon fiber, and other composites will drive down the manufacturing cost. (Pyper, 2012) From a manufacturing perspective utilizing composite materials makes sense. Currently vehicle development and manufacturing is a very expensive, and money-losing operation due to the high capital investment in tooling. Each vehicle model requires over 600 unique stamping dies to make parts out of metal costing around USD 1.5 million.13 The actual fabrication tooling also requires a USD 8 million investment per vehicle program. There is also high costs in terms of labor and materials to assemble the vehicle bodies, and chassis. Thus the entire cost per vehicle program can quickly climb to be over USD 1 billion! (Noble & Surber, 2013) The massive capital expenditure involved in developing and manufacturing vehicles is the reason why a typical product lifecycle is seven years. It is likely in the future consumers will demand more models, and more frequent styling updates, making the traditional lifecycle inadequate. Composite technology can create a 25-35 percent savings in vehicle panel unit cost. Automakers will likely use a tubular steel frame where the composite panels are draped over the steel skeleton using loose-

13 This is only for one vehicle model program, such as the Toyota Camry program.

Volkswagen XL1 PHEV (Autoblog, 2013)

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panel composite construction A tubular steel frame can reduce investment in new model programs by 70-80 percent, thus enabling automakers to create more styling updates to satisfy consumer tastes. (Noble & Surber, 2013) In conclusion, this means that consumers will be able to purchase cleaner, lighter, and more efficient automobiles. However, the question remains what will be the most popular vehicle for consumers. Research suggests that the most popular type of vehicle will probably be something in the middle. Hybrids, and PHEVs with CNG/diesel/gasoline range extenders will likely be the most common types of vehicle sold in the coming decades. Hydrogen vehicles will likely require extensive infrastructure investments, and will not likely become mainstream in the near future. Turbine engines have great potential, but the industry seems to be moving towards smaller displacement piston engines like Volkswagens new XL1. (Mazor, 2013)

Infrastructure Improvements Automobiles in the future will likely require different infrastructure than what is currently available. This includes new fueling stations, dedicated lanes for automated vehicles, and redesigning urban areas for new types of mobility. A delay in developing new infrastructure will reduce the benefits of automated and green vehicles. These include changes in services, and roadway infrastructure to support new types of transportation. Vehicles utilizing new types of fuel technology will likely require different fueling infrastructure than what is currently available. Electric vehicles will require charging stations every 100-200 miles, or at least at a consistent interval to ensure the vehicle doesnt run out of charge. Each charging center could be an opportunity for entrepreneurs to have rest areas, food, or shopping for occupants to relax while their car is charging. Parking areas will also likely need to consider the increase demand for electric vehicles and offer built in charging stations. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010) Current roadway infrastructure is inadequate for traffic likely to be encountered in the future. Part of the problem is the type of roads we have from a design standpoint, but also how the US Federal Government classifies vehicles. If automated vehicles, and new types of mobility are to succeed, governments will need to rethink their infrastructure designs. Some roadways, specifically mixed flow roadways utilize High Occupancy Vehicle lanes (HOV), the point of these lanes is to carry more people than more cars. The problem is physically these lanes are the same (except for some lane markings), and drivers take advantage of these lanes when they shouldnt. These lanes should be

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transformed into a separate lane, where entry is controlled to make the lane more efficient. (Grey, 2013) In the future it is likely that there will be more autonomous vehicles. Currently any type of vehicle can accommodate any lane makes it very user friendly for drivers, but at the same time very inefficient. Automated vehicles perform best in convoys travelling faster and separate from normal traffic. It is likely in the future that the concept pioneered by the HOV lane, might spawn the creation of an autonomous vehicle lane. Nevertheless highway planners should investigate ways to incorporate dedicated lanes for autonomous vehicles in the future. (Grey, 2013) The US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) currently has a classification system of thirteen vehicle types.14 (Federal Highway Administration, 2011) The list of classifications is dominated by at least nine different variants of truck. However it is likely in the future that there will be several different types of personal mobility like a Segway. The increase in urbanization will likely prompt consumers to purchase personal mobility vehicles to commute short distances. However Segways do not fit into the current transportation system, being too slow for roads, and conflict with pedestrians on sidewalks. Roadway planners and policymakers need to consider the evolution of vehicle types, and their specific requirements for roadways in the future. (Grey, 2013) There are solutions available to roadway planners on how to best design roads that separate various mobility types and optimize use. One specific example calls for creating separate lanes for pedestrians, bikes/city cars/segways, public transportation, and normal traffic (cars). Each lane would seperated with sidewalks, and greenery to improve the ecological footprint. This example would be a major road in an urban area. Smaller side streets would not need to be as sophtiscated, but would still require dedicated lanes for segways, and bikes. Separate lanes for each various mobility types can also improve safety for pedestrians, and slower traffic. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010) In conclusion, roadway planners, and policy makers have a challenge in the future to try and maximize space, and transportation types. Firstly, new fueling technologies mainly electiric vehicles will require different types of infrastructure. Secondly, it is important to optimize autonomous vehicles with dedicated highway lanes. Lastly, government planning agencies should look into vehicle classification, and roadway design to optimize use of various mobility types.

14 Motorcycles, passenger cars, pickup trucks/vans, buses, single unit 2 axle trucks, single unit 3 axle trucks, single unit 4 (or more) axle trucks, single trailer 3-or 4-axle trucks, single trailer 5-axle trucks, single trailer 6 (or more) axle trucks, multi-trailer 5 (or less) axle trucks, multi-trailer 6-axle trucks, multi trailer 7 (or more) axle trucks

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Changing Legal Definitions, and Insurance It is likely in the future that automated driving systems will be offered by more automakers making vehicles much safer. However that means there should also be changes to the legal, and insurance fee structure. There are already technologies being introduced by automakers that are changing the costs of insurance. Societys increasing willingness to release data will also change how insurance works. Autonomous vehicles pose a problem of liability in an accident because it is not the driver who was driving, it was the car. In todays current legal structure liability would place blame on the driver for not paying attention. However further automation will likely place potential liability on the automakers, or the company developing/manufacturing/souring the automation system. This change in liability will encourage automakers to make the systems more redundant, and foolproof. Nevertheless automakers will not like facing the brunt of responsibility for their systems in the event of an accident. (Kalra, Anderson, & Wachs, 2009) One solution posed by experts is having tort reform, and implementing a no-fault liability structure. A no-fault system prohibits drivers from suing other drivers or automakers unless a certain severity threshold is exceeded. This type of system focuses on compensating victims for their injuries instead of tying money up in litigation suits. No-fault insurance structures might become very attractive to automakers when developing automated vehicle technology. (Kalra, Anderson, & Wachs, 2009) Along with tort reform, the following is also important to consider. Educating consumers about the limitations of vehicle automation technology, so that there are not unrealistic expectations made about system capabilities. It is also important to have regulatory bodies mandate standardization of these systems, so that they all operate in the same manner. This can reduce the risk of crashes due to consumer confusion. (Kalra, Anderson, & Wachs, 2009) Already several automakers have developed, and sold vehicle active collision avoidance technology to mitigate the risk of an accident.15 Such technology can prevent 48 percent of rear-end, and lane change accidents. Some European insurers acknowledge the benefits of these systems and have offered discounts of around 20 percent off insurance premiums to equipped vehicles. (Kalra, Anderson, & Wachs, 2009) US auto insurers have started offering small modules to plug into the on board diagnostic (OBD) system to monitor vehicle speed, braking, and location. The

15 Volvo, BMW, Subaru, Mercedes-Benz, GM, Ford to name a few.

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insurance company could then offer discounts to customers for safe driving.16 (Dobbins, 2013) It is likely that in the future most every insurance company will recognize the value of systems like active collision avoidance and OBD modules to offer discounts to consumers. Increasingly modern society is comfortable with releasing personal data to companies, in turn for discounts, or additional services. It is likely in the future that automotive insurance might evolve into a pay as you drive scheme, which also could potentially monitor over 750,000 data points to determine a premium.17 Monitoring this vast number of parameters using connected vehicles indicates a move from pricing premiums based on proxy data, to actual data on each driver. This means a more accurate cost could be assigned to each driver, and offer potential savings to many. (Dobbins, 2013) There is no doubt that automated driving systems can make vehicles safer, and that already active collision avoidance systems are preventing many accidents. However there needs to be tort-reform, and a framework to keep pace with this rapidly progressing technology. Additional changes to insurance are also required to offer consumers appropriate pricing of premiums.

Summary

The concepts expressed in this paper are likely the best estimates of what to expect from the global automotive industry in the next 20-30 years. The change will likely be gradual, but steady as vehicle automation technology diffuses through the industry. This technology will help improve the safety of automobiles for occupants and also the community. However automakers, and retailers must be cognizant of impending demographic change, and ensure to adapt their product portfolio to evolving consumer needs, and tastes. Increased urbanization will also prompt firms to rethink car ownership and use, along with environmental awareness. Regulatory bodies will need to adapt vehicle classification criteria, and roadway planning to be ready for autonomous vehicles, and derivatives of personal mobility. Autonomous vehicles, and active safety systems will likely prompt legal entities, and insurers to rethink liability, and insurance pricing. The successful evolution of the automotive industry requires the progression of multiple facets of society, government, and other associated companies. The future of mobility will transform the global marketplace, and offer consumers great products, while ensuring higher levels of efficiency and safety.

16 Progressive Snapshot 17 Real-time data like braking, acceleration, time, weather, speed.

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