This year, as nations fight to remain resilient in the face of the unprecedented coronavirus pandemic, infrastructure investment as a potent economic stimulus tool is generating renewed interest as policy makers begin to consider the path to recovery.

Much as we are doing now to support government’s response to the pandemic worldwide, our industry will play an important role in shaping what’s next once the acute phase of the crisis subsides. The time to start rebuilding the post-coronavirus society is now.

Over the next weeks and months, AECOM professionals will share lessons learned from past recovery efforts and other insights to help decision-makers make the most impactful decisions about what to build. We’ll also be talking about other topics driving the future of infrastructure, from innovation, to securing resources and tackling the climate emergency, among other global challenges.

The Future of Infrastructure … is Now.

Thank you for being part of this important dialogue. As we navigate this crisis together, we wish each of you, and your families, well.

FOREWORD

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AECOM’s annual Future of Infrastructure report sets out our vision of where the industry is heading.

Of course, the scale of what’s required is immense. The U.S. administration has responded with a $2.2 trillion package, the largest federal relief effort in U.S. history. 1 Underscoring the magnitude of the challenge a further stimulus package — possibly even larger — is already in the works, 2 including major infrastructure investment plans. 3 In Asia, where the outbreak began, record stimulus packages have been announced in Japan, 4 Singapore and South Korea, while Australia’s efforts to date amount to one tenth of its economy 5. China has signaled a bigger stimulus could be on the way.  6 Meanwhile, European Union leaders are working on a collective response. 7 Italy,  8 France 9 and

NOWTHE FUTURE IS

INFRASTRUCTURE’S ROLE IN ECONOMIC RECOVERY

$2.2T The $2.2 trillion coronavirus package is the largest federal relief effort in U.S. history.

As the coronavirus outbreak deepens and inflicts a tragic toll, economies around the world are being flattened with unprecedented force

and speed. Governments are advancing emergency aid and stimulus packages to respond to the immediate health crisis and prevent economies from stuttering to a halt. The global community has been badly shaken, but already, there is a determination to emerge from this stronger: to rethink how we do things and reboot. For the infrastructure industry that means asking questions such as: can we approach what we build better? How can we make populations more resilient to global shocks ahead?

Germany 10 have laid out their own relief efforts ranging from €25–50 billion, and Spain is planning the biggest financial mobilization in its democratic history. 11 The UK has already promised to pump more into its economy than during the decade-old financial crisis. 12

Despite these Herculean efforts, financial markets remain skittish, fearful of how much this will cost. It is impossible to predict the full economic impact of the coronavirus because we still don’t know how long we will have to fight it, and how much resources the effort will consume. The IMF expects the GDP growth for 2020 to be negative, with “a recession at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse.”  13

For the infrastructure industry, AECOM CEO Michael S. Burke says that means asking questions such as: can we approach what we build better? How can we make populations more resilient to global shocks ahead?

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Los Angeles Metro, U.S.

It is likely that additional stimulus packages will be required, beyond those already announced. Underneath the headline figures will come important choices about how to spend that money. Those decisions will impact the speed and depth of recovery, influence the longer-term health of our economies, and begin to define what our new normal is likely to be once the coronavirus is abated — hopefully for good. A time-honored way of providing an immediate lift to economies is to fund infrastructure. The injection of income leads to more spending, which creates more income and so on — the so-called ‘multiplier’ effect. A study for Business Roundtable, an association of chief executive officers of America’s leading companies, found modernizing our highways, bridges, airports, and waterways will produce big returns. Every $1 invested in infrastructure returns roughly $3.70 in additional economic growth over 20 years, the modeling study by University of Maryland showed 14. That’s nearly a 4:1 ratio of return on investment. During a recession, infrastructure investment is often deficit financed meaning it can have an even greater effect. At the same time, spending on infrastructure boosts economic prospects in the medium and long-term through much-needed improvements to facilities and connectivity. In the U.S. current infrastructure spending

at federal, state and local level is at an all-time low and is already insufficient to meet both maintenance and expansion needs. The $4.6 trillion backlog of deferred projects is estimated to be limiting economic growth by $3.9 trillion over the next five years. After the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. economy bounced back faster than Europe, in part because its financial stimulus was larger  15 — with 14 percent of funds earmarked for infrastructure. However, despite its relative success, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) had its weaknesses, the most cited being its failure to limit unemployment. With the unemployment rate forecast to skyrocket to 32% in the U.S. alone, policy makers should consider increasing spending on infrastructure projects, particularly those that will add the most jobs. On average, $100 billion of infrastructure investment adds one million jobs 16 — more if the projects are transport-related because of the knock-on effects of a more efficient economy 17. Another criticism of ARRA was that the infrastructure it funded was supposed to be “shovel ready.” The New York Times in 2010, noted that it wasn’t possible to get started immediately due to the pipeline process of approvals, the design to ensure environmental requirements, and the need to ensure that fair contracting practices took place. Most took at least six months to get off the ground.

SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE BOOSTS ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM THROUGH MUCH-NEEDED IMPROVEMENTS TO FACILITIES AND CONNECTIVITY.—

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Policy makers have an opportunity to learn from ARRA. To ensure the money is well spent, we have three recommendations:

1/ ACT NOW: to avoid delays in awarding construction projects, agencies should start preparing now. Much of the planning work, from accelerating permitting to tender documentation, can be done virtually.

2/ REMOVE HURDLES:administrations should begin fast track planning and environmental approvals now and engage the industry to help clients prepare projects for procurement.

3/ FLEXIBLE PROCUREMENT: projects can be delivered faster thanks to design-build, which allows projects to start sooner, and digital delivery, which improves efficiency. These methods should be embraced, as should the encouragement of unsolicited proposals and the engagement of the private sector in financing of projects. When stimulus funding becomes available, it will be most impactful if spending bodies have a comprehensive infrastructure stimulus program to guide priorities — a program that channels the same ingenuity driving today’s healthcare response into

Runcorn, one of 20 New Towns to be created in the U.K.

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Investment in infrastructure has the power to alleviate today’s economic distress and create opportunities for tomorrow.

Interstate, Florida, U.S.

new thinking to address our nation’s disrepair and build infrastructure for the future. While immediate payouts are needed to keep households and businesses afloat, infrastructure spending provides one of the greatest returns on investments. Incorporating a full asset lifecycle approach that balances shovel ready projects with more strategic priorities, we can help make our urban centers more resilient to global shocks such as climate change and urbanization. With the right choices we can create a more sustainable future for a global population that has been burdened by weeks of keeping physically distant, to help us come together to rise above this tragic period. AECOM can help advise on this. After the devastation of World War II, the world enjoyed an economic boom financed, in part, by the massive need to rebuild large swathes of Europe and to support suffering economies elsewhere. Despite unprecedented hardships, some of the greatest public works projects in history were began in this period — from the UK’s New Towns program, that saw the construction of over 20 entirely new settlements, to President Eisenhower’s new Interstate Highway System. The legacy of such projects should serve as an inspiration to today’s policy makers of what they can achieve.

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WHEN STIMULUS FUNDING BECOMES AVAILABLE, IT WILL BE MOST IMPACTFUL IF SPENDING BODIES HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE STIMULUS PROGRAM TO GUIDE PRIORITIES. —

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TO TRYING TIMESStimulus spending is a traditional economic remedy for economies in difficulty. It’s also an opportunity to fix aging or inadequate infrastructure, transforming communities for decades to come. AECOM’s Steve Morriss reflects on some of the world’s greatest monuments to trying times, and what that means for post-coronavirus infrastructure.

STIMULUS INVESTMENTS THAT ARE STILL PAYING DIVIDENDS

In the aftermath of World War I, a young Lieutenant Colonel Eisenhower was sent by the U.S. War Department on an epic military motor convoy across the country. Sixty-two days and

3,251 miles after it left Washington, DC, the convoy reached San Francisco — an average speed of 6 miles an hour. The official report recorded 230 motor accidents including getting stuck in dust, quicksand, and mud, and sinking when roads and bridges collapsed under them. It concluded existing roads were “absolutely incapable of meeting the present-day traffic requirements. ” 1

That was in 1919. It took another 37 years to fund what is now the U.S. Interstate Highway System. In

1953, the newly elected President Eisenhower — who’d been impressed by German autobahns he’d experienced as Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe during World War II — was convinced a highway system was necessary both as an investment in the nation's long-term economic prosperity and its national security needs. 2 He appointed General Lucius Clay to investigate who concluded: “It was evident we needed better highways. We needed them for safety, to accommodate more automobiles. We needed them for defense purposes, if that should ever be necessary. And we needed them for the economy. Not just as a public works measure but for future growth.” 3

Interstate Highway SystemMore than 60 years later, the highway system remains an essential part of American life, easing the flow of commerce and connecting millions of Americans with their workplaces, families and friends. It also features prominently in resiliency plans to evacuate metropolitan and coastal areas during natural or human-caused disasters. The clarity of purpose that defined Eisenhower's highway investment can also be found in other post-war infrastructure programs in Europe and Asia. These examples confirm what history tells us: that infrastructure investment is always the answer to creating economic recovery because of the jobs it creates. The Economic Policy Institute estimates $100 billion of infrastructure investment adds one million jobs. 4 Duke University’s Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness says that figure is double if the projects are transport-related 5 because of the boost transport infrastructure brings to other businesses.

$100B The Economic Policy Institute estimates that $100 billion of infrastructure investment adds one million jobs.

MONUMENTS

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Japan’s Shinkansen high‑speed train network underpinned its rise as an economic powerhouse

Although this current crisis does not come with the devastation of physical infrastructure that follows a war, every country in the world has infrastructure that is crumbling or that fails to meet current needs. Stimulus spending is an opportunity to fix that, boosting future prosperity.

Japan’s Shinkansen high‑speed train networkIn Japan, the economy was transformed by the beloved Shinkansen high-speed train network. Fundamental to the country’s recovery from the devastation of WWII, it also underpinned its subsequent rise as an economic powerhouse. Hundreds of people waited overnight in Tokyo and Osaka for the arrival of the first two bullet trains in 1964, delivered less than a week and a half before the start of the Tokyo Olympic Games, precisely on time. The trains reduced the train journey time between Japan’s two biggest cities from seven hours to four. 6

Since then, the network has expanded across the country, with trains now reaching up to 320 km/h (199 mp/h) 7. As well as powering the domestic economy through fast, reliable connections, Japan has become a world leader in rail technology exporting trains and equipment all over the world. 8

Britain’s new townsMeanwhile, in the UK, public finances had been utterly depleted by the war effort. Nonetheless, aerial

1980s by AECOM’s Stephen J. Rutkey. Built in the 1930s under President Roosevelt’s New Deal program to recover from the Great Depression, it was initially a high school. As the community grew and a new high school was built, it became a middle school, then an elementary school, which it is now, when a new middle school was built. “Schools like this were built in the thousands around our country, and built so well that they have influenced thousands of lives over several generations and are local landmarks, all of them,” said Stephen, who is Associate Vice President for Transportation in New York. “Hopefully what we do in 2020 and beyond for stimulus projects will include things as impactful and enduring as these schools.” To get the most out of the stimulus spending linked to the current crisis, timing is crucial. If a gap opens up between pre-coronavirus work and stimulus-funded infrastructure, the very industry needed to implement the monuments of the future will be damaged and the additional stop start costs will add to the bill.

bombardment had destroyed critical infrastructure and huge swathes of the country, particularly in London, needed to be rebuilt. Before WWII ended, preparations for reconstruction had already begun with the 1944 Greater London Plan. In 1946, the government went still further with the New Towns Act, an ambitious programme for building entirely new towns. 9 Seventy years on, those towns are thriving communities, each with their own strengths and challenges. The short-term investment also paid off: by 1951, the Festival of Britain was heralding a national recovery — the symbol of which is still the Royal Festival Hall, a brutalist and much-loved exhibition and arts space on the south bank of the Thames — itself the result of stimulus spending. More recently, governments from Australia to Korea, Canada to Mexico and Germany responded to the global financial crisis that had flattened their economies with stimulus packages. These resulted in new roads, railroads, public transport, airports, schools and universities, hospitals, energy networks, as well as investment in digital infrastructure. 10 In the U.S., millions of Americans worked on Recovery Act projects from wind turbine production in Muncie, Indiana, to tunnel expansion in Oakland, California. 11

Influencing lives for generationsMany of these smaller projects will be like the Chancellor Livingston School in Hudson, New York, attended in the

IN 1946, THE UK GOVERNMENT WENT STILL FURTHER WITH THE NEW TOWNS ACT, AN AMBITIOUS PROGRAMME FOR BUILDING ENTIRELY NEW TOWNS. SEVENTY YEARS ON, THOSE TOWNS ARE THRIVING COMMUNITIES, EACH WITH THEIR OWN STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES. —

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Cwmbran, a new town in Wales, UK

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AS PRESSURE BUILDS TO EASE THE LOCKDOWN

HOW SHOULD BUSINESSES PREPARE FOR GOING BACK TO WORK?

As the U.S. unemployment rate climbs to over 20 percent, states are under increasing pressure to lift restrictions on businesses which were put in place

to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Governors face a tremendous burden deciding when, how, and which businesses to open given that a vaccine is still many months away and the U.S. continues to lead the world in coronavirus cases. The result is a patchwork of state-wide policies and

three multistate coalitions in the Northeast, West, and Midwest that hope to coordinate reopening measures. Governors and state policymakers are not alone in this battle. The infrastructure industry also has an important role to play in softening the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Not only is infrastructure a historically solid jobs creator, the industry can also engineer solutions to social distancing and virus detection, help policymakers plan for the future, and design more resilient communities.

The economic shutdown cannot last indefinitely, but without a vaccine, any easing of restrictions must be accompanied by precautions to protect lives. Eventually, the health crisis will be brought under control, but even then a return to pre‑pandemic norms will take time. AECOM’s Chief Growth Officer for the Americas, Michael Renshaw, discusses a phased return to operations and preparing for the new normal.

GOVERNORS FACE A TREMENDOUS BURDEN DECIDING WHEN, HOW, AND WHICH BUSINESSES TO OPEN GIVEN THAT A VACCINE IS STILL MANY MONTHS AWAY.—

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We’ve identified three steps to help guide reopening efforts across market sectors, and the infrastructure industry is instrumental to all three.

/ Ensuring a safe return to operations / Planning a phased return-to-service / Preparing for the ‘new normal’

Safe return to operationsWhile the search for a vaccine continues, any reopening will have to take place under new safety protocols. First and foremost, states and companies must ensure employees and clients are protected to the fullest extent possible. This will require a comprehensive system of controls, beginning with proper personal protective equipment (PPE) for those who require it. It will also necessitate changes to the way people work. Can floor markings or dividers direct the flow of traffic? What cleaning protocols should be adopted? What about new ways of scheduling work? Accommodations must be made for vulnerable individuals and new protocols adopted for visitors. While this pandemic and its impact are unprecedented, many engineered solutions have already been put to the test — in pandemics, weather events, and public gatherings and can be quickly repurposed. Floor plan layouts can be adjusted to maintain proper distancing, for example, and crowd

IF MORE PEOPLE CONTINUE TO WORK FROM HOME, WHAT WILL BE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OFFICE SPACES, AND FOR ROADS THAT NOW HAVE LESS COMMUTERS?—

control solutions can be adapted from theme parks and other entertainment venues. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) flow rates can be adjusted, and contactless entry adopted. In the event of a coronavirus resurgence, measures will be needed to detect the virus,using multiple data points to quickly pinpoint hotspots and prevent further spread. The virus can be detected through wastewater at the point of origin or at wastewater treatment plants. Instruments used to test air quality can be fitted to test for air-borne viruses. Thermal imaging and medical testing also have an important role to play. By enabling holistic virus detection at the waste, air, thermal, and medical testing levels, a safer return is possible.

Phased return to serviceIt will take time for people to feel safe enough to return to regular activities. Moving from a partial to a full return to service will require a phased approach, as the experience of our global colleagues where this has begun demonstrates. Scenario modelling and multi-channel communications can help ease this process. Planing for a phased return to service requires consideration of multiple, interrelated factors. Transit agencies, for example, will need to determine which routes are likely to be

most in demand, the number of users, optimal capacity, the number of trains, busses, or subways to put into service and on what timetables. AECOM has been helping transit agencies plan a return to service with scenario modelling based on proprietary algorithms and partnerships with big data providers. These tools enable us to evaluate multiple factors through customized ‘what-if’ scenarios to companies plan a return to service as well as investments for the future.

Preparing for the ‘new’ normalFinally, we must ask ourselves — what are we returning to? Changes to the way people experience the world may last far beyond the pandemic. If more people continue to work from home, what will be the implications for office spaces, and for roads that now have less commuters? How can transit investment adapt to changing rider preferences, and lower ridership? Will education be forever altered now that distance learning is a reality? What about healthcare? Will smaller hospitals take the place of large centralized locations where viruses can spread more easily? What about the impacts of telemedicine on the medical campus? These questions and more require careful consideration as companies begin to reopen during the coronavirus pandemic.

WHILE THIS PANDEMIC AND ITS IMPACT ARE UNPRECEDENTED, MANY ENGINEERED SOLUTIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN PUT TO THE TEST — IN PANDEMICS, WEATHER EVENTS, AND PUBLIC GATHERINGS AND CAN BE QUICKLY REPURPOSED. —

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Investment in infrastructure has the power to alleviate today’s economic distress and create opportunities for tomorrow.

CREATING OPPORTUNITYFOR EVERYONE

THE FUTURE OF INFRASTRUCTURE