The Future of Global Financial Services - Vision 2020 Mumbai September 2008
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Transcript of The Future of Global Financial Services - Vision 2020 Mumbai September 2008
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Creating the Future ofGlobal Financial Services
Ross DawsonChairman, Future Exploration NetworkAuthor, Living Networks andDeveloping Knowledge-Based Client Relationships
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Risk
Relationships
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Finite players play within boundariesInfinite players play with boundaries
- James Carse
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Scenario thinking
Source: Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
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Forecasting and scenarios
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Thinking about the future of drilling
Source: Global Business Network & Peter Schwartz
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Life is full of surprises
Source: Global Business Network & Peter Schwartz
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Networks are based on standardsSenior executive
interviews
Financial servicesDisruptions-trends
-uncertainties
Develop preliminarystrategic
frameworks
Explore past, present and future
Workshoppreparation
Scenario Project - Process Map
Catalysts for strategic
conversation
Developscenario agenda
Drivers of alternative futures
Preliminaryscenario frameworks
Scenario teamdevelops scenarios
Application indivisional strategy
process
Group strategyimplications
Scenario Book
Future VisionWorkshop
Ongoing annualgroup and divisional
scenario-basedstrategy process
Growth and success
Scenario thinking
Strategic capabilities
Responsiveness
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Driving forces
1. Economic shift2. Demographic shift3. Greater expectations4. Commoditization5. Connectivity6. Integration 7. Modularization8. New payment mechanisms9. New capital markets10.Value of relationships
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BRICs are overtaking
Source: Goldman Sachs
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Demographics is destiny
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We expect more
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Prices are being driven down
Source: UK Office of National Statistics
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Connected to financial advice
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Integrated information flows
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The modular economy
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New payment mechanisms
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New layers for capital markets
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Relationships matter
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Driving forces
1. Economic shift2. Demographic shift3. Greater expectations4. Commoditization5. Connectivity6. Integration 7. Modularization8. New payment mechanisms9. New capital markets10.Value of relationships
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Critical uncertainties
1. Globalization2. National stability3. Regulation4. Privacy5. Volatility 6. Industry structure7. New entrants8. Currencies9. IT Security 10.Climate change
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Is globalization inevitable?
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The integrity of nations
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Regulation drives industries and economies
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Privacy, service, and pricing
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Will complexity drive volatility?
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Industry consolidation
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Banks get new competitors
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How many currencies?
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Will IT systems be secure?
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The impact of climate change
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Critical uncertainties
1. Globalization2. National stability3. Regulation4. Privacy5. Volatility 6. Industry structure7. New entrants8. Currencies9. IT Security 10.Climate change
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Key dimensions
Aggregation: Fragmentation to Consolidation
Technology uptake: Traditional to Transformational
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Scenario Framework: Global Financial Services in 2020
ConsolidationFragmentation
Transformational
Traditional
New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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New Frontier
Strong global growth and availability of capital Deregulation and international cooperation India flourishes Google, eBay, and telecoms firms become major
financial players Margin pressure across industry Rise of mobile payments and e-cash Shift away from branches Intensely customized service to all tiers of clients
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New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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Barriers Rising
Rise of protectionism China splinters Euro breaks up Wealth disparities rise Investors demand focus Banks specialize/ global monolines Proliferation of intermediaries High margins for successful players Terrorism impacts financial markets and insurance
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New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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Agent Economy
Fluid global economy Highly modular outsourcing across borders Governments lose control/ consumers gain control Consumers and business shift wholesale to online Agents seek best price for everything/ customer
loyalty nil Constant product innovation Markets are volatile Customer service and call centers are automated
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New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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Mega Services
Rise of BRIC results in multiple superpowers Trade liberalization wins Global financial services consolidation Integration across financial services sectors Profitability high but cyclical High customer expectations Banks diversify into other personal services, partly
through alliances Niche service providers emerge to support the market
leaders
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Scenario Framework: Global Financial Services in 2020
ConsolidationFragmentation
Transformational
Traditional
New frontier
MegaServices
Agent economy
BarriersRising
AGGREGATION
TEC
HN
OLO
GY
UP
TAK
E
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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Key capabilities for success in 2020
Specialization
Integration
Scalable relationship management
Cross-selling
Responsive strategic re-positioning
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Two layers of technology in organizations
Ad-hoc networks
Standardized processes
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Shifting relationship channels
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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The flow economy
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Opportunities for Indian FS Industry
1. Best-of-breed modular services
2. Adapting microfinance expertise
3. Financial Services Virtual Operator support
4. Global mobile payments
5. Branded global Joint Ventures
6. Support India’s success
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Critical uncertainties
Driving forces
Implications
Scenarios for financial services
Opportunities
Scenario thinking
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We have a choice
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Online resources
“Dawson has pulled off the nigh-impossible: improved on what was already a terrific book. Even more than before, this is essential reading for professional service firms.” - David Maister, author, Managing the Professional Service Firm
www.rossdawsonblog.comCommentary, free chapters, and downloads at:
“I’m not sure that even Ross Dawson realizes how radical – and how likely – his vision of the future is.” - Seth Godin, author, Purple Cows
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Create the future of financial services!