The future of EnglishImplications for BNCs

Ricardo RomeroOxford University Press

The plan for today

Demographic, political, economic and language trends in the world

Implications for Bi-national centers

The road ahead

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Talking about the future…

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David Crystal “World Englishes)”

David Graddol “The future of English”

David Graddol “English Next”

Analysis

Political changes in the world Demography World population Information technology Economy Education and mobility

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Age and needs

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Widening of student age and need

Over the next decade there will be a complex and changing mix of learner needs. More children will register to learn English

Changing number of learners

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The rise and fall of learners

A massive increase in the number of people learning English has already begun, and is likely to reach a peak of around 2 billion in the next 10-15 years. Numbers of learners will then decline.

People learning English 1960-2050

Non-native speakers

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Rising competition

Non-native speaker providers of ELT services will create major competition to the UK and the US (Reaction to certification and standardization)

Trends in international students

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Irreversible trend in international students The recent decline in international

students studying in the main English speaking countries is unlikely to reverse.

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/090

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

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Trends in international higher education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007)

International higher education, a $300 billion industryThe United States is attracting a declining share of foreign students. 1970 market share of 36.7% 1995 market share of 30% 2004 market share of 25%2007 market share of 22%.

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The net contribution to the U.S. economy by foreign students and their families for 2005-06 is almost 13.5 billion dollars.

Although the decline in international student enrollment in the United States was exacerbated by the events of September 11, 2001, the decline began before then.

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Monolingual and Native Speakers

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The doom of monolingualism

Monolingual English speakers face a bleak economic future and the barriers preventing them from learning other languages are rising rapidly.

Irrelevance of native speakers

Native-speaker norms are becoming less relevant as English becomes a component of basic education in many countries.

Growth of languages on the internet

The dominance of English on the internet is declining. Other languages, including lesser-used languages, are now proliferating.

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The economic advantage is ebbing away The competitive advantage

which English has historically provided its acquirers (personally, organizationally, and nationally) will ebb away as English becomes a near-universal basic skill. The need to maintain the advantage by moving beyond English will be felt more acutely.

Retraining needed for English specialists Specialist English teachers will

need to acquire additional skills as English is less often taught as a subject on its own.

CLIL Global issues Psychology other

The end of English as a Foreign Language

Implications for BNCs Certification and accreditation Re-directing student orientation for

studies abroad Diversification in exam administration

Young learners General English wider scope Special English exam

More resources for children’s programs Changing paradigms for adult programs

Implications for BNCs

Redefining teacher’s profiles Retraining teachers (CLIL) International certification for teachers A bigger competition for quality

teachers Strategic alliances with universities

for teacher training opportunities Diversification in our programs The need to be recognized as

binational institutions of technical assistance

Thank you!Ricardo.Romero@oup.com