The Future of Electricity in the Energy System of the Future
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Transcript of The Future of Electricity in the Energy System of the Future
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Hans De Keulenaer, European Copper Institute
The future of electricity in the energy system of the future- A big picture view
Wind-to-Wheel SymposiumMay 26, 2011Barcelona
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Content
About Leonardo ENERGY Energy sustainability – an elusive concept 4 integrated visions on energy
– What do they have in common? Implications for electricity
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About Leonardo ENERGY
Global Community for Sustainable Energy Professionals
Advocacy for good practice in regulation & standards
Resources for continuous professional development of energy professionals– Application notes & white papers– Webinars– E-learning courses
www.leonardo-energy.org
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What is energy sustainability?
Sustainable energy is the provision of energy that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. (Wikipedia)
Mark Jaccard: 2 conditions
1. Good prospects for enduring indefinitely the type & level of energy services it provides
2. Extraction, transformation, transport & consumption must be benign to people and ecosystems
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How much energy do we need?
2,400 kgoe/pp/year = 100 GJ/pp/year = 76 kWh/pp/day
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Integrated vision on energy #1
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The 70 kWh plan for the UK
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Integrated vision on energy #2
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How much EROEI is enough?
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Integrated vision on energy #3
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The Challenge of Finance
Technology GW B$/GW B$
3.8 M wind turbines of 5 MW 19,000 2.0 38,000
49,000 CSP plants of 300 MW 14,700 3.0 44,100
40,000 PV power stations of 300 MW 12,000 1.0 12,000
1.7 billion solar roofs of 3 kW 5,100 2.5 12,750
270 hydro power stations of 1.3 GW 351 3.0 1,051
5,350 geothermal plants of 100 MW 535 2.5 1,338
720,000 wave devices of 0.75 MW 540
490,000 tidal devices of 1 MW 490
Capacity numbers from the Jacobson reportCost figures from L D Harvey – Energy & the New Reality
Total investment needed more than 100,000 B$(world GDP ~ 60,000 B$)
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How much do we spend on energy?
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Cost of delivered energyTaxes
EU-27 cost of energy ~ 1,250 Billion Euro(GDP 12,396 Billion Euro)
Spanish cost of energy ~ 100 Billion Euro(GDP 1,081 Billion Euro)
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Energy taxes
% energy tax revenue
Electricity to industryElectricity to consumersGas to industryGas to consumersTransport fuelOther oil
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Integrated vision on energy #4
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How much energy do we really need?
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The dream
1. Physical and technical availability, on a large scale
2. Cost-effective3. Low environmental impact4. Socially acceptable & safe
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The Hydrogen Economy
Pros Flexible system
– Can be produced in many ways
– Versatile in use Storage
Cons Significant losses
through many conversions in production, storage & use
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The Bio-Energy Economy
Pros 100% renewable
energy source & carrier in one
Easy storage Rural development
Cons Land use:
– Low EROEI– Competition with food
Water use Low value-added jobs
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The problem with biomass
Mc Kay: complete agricultural surface in UK can yield a maximum of 36 kWh/person/day• 7 kWh/p/d (1/5th of agro-land) is the maximum
we can realistically hope for• But we need a total of at least 80 kWh/p/d• Biomass “does not add up”
Heinberg: bioenergy sources have EROEIs of around 5:1 too low to be of good use
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The electrical society
Pros Many ways to produce
electricity Single infrastructure
to cover all needs (and already largely existing)
High efficiency in use
Cons Storage is difficult Impact of the
electricity system on landscape
Change in end-use systems:– Electric vehicles– Heat pumps for homes
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On what can we (probably) agree?
Time is pressing Energy efficiency is vital A diversified, cost-effective solution Rapid growth for renewables Increased interconnection capacity New way to operate energy systems Need for flexibility Increasing role of electricity The promise of wind, PV and CSP
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Wildcards – geothermal power
Geothermal energy can provide up to 10 times current global energy production.
World Energy Assessment:– 600,000 EJ ‘useful
accessible resource’– 5,000 EJ resource– 500 EJ reserve
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Wildcards – ocean energy
If we could harness 0.1% of the power of the oceans, we could support the energy needs of 15 billion people.
Mackay: 45 kW/m power in wave-front
World Energy Assessment:– 7,400 EJ potential (7,200
from OTEC)
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Wildcards - hydropower
Canada, home to about 475 hydroelectric plants with a
current capacity of 70,000 MW, producing about 355 TWh/yr
According to a study commissioned by the Canadian Hydropower Association, Canada has
163,000 MW of untapped hydropower potential
http://goo.gl/yzvhO
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End-uses for energy
Electricity
HeatTransport
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How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?
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How much energy will we need for a kWh?
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
France Germany Netherlands Poland Spain Sweden UnitedKingdom
bld performancecalc 2009 RE=1calc 2020 RE=1calc 2050 RE=1 REFcalc 2050 RE=1 [r]evolution
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Environmental performance for heating solutions for the passive house
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Standard (1) LEH (1) PH (1) with heat pump
PH (1) with NSH today
PH (1) with NSH 2030
Em
issi
on
of
CO
2-eq
uiv
alen
ts
(to
n)
Carbon dioxide (ton) Global Warming Potential (CO2e) [ton CO2-Equiv.]
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Heating homes tomorrow
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Renewables-powered industrial processes
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Renewables-powered industrial processes
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Electricity
Heating & CoolingTransport
Electricity & other energy uses
Reduction through low
energy & passive buildings
Heat pumps, reversible
airconditioning
EV, HEVPublic transport
Electric process heat
New services (teleworking, web conferencing, building automation, …)
Reduction through
increased fuel efficiency & fuel
switching
?