The Future of The Future of Election ReformElection Reform(in light of the 2012 elections)(in light of the 2012 elections)

Ned Foley & Steven HuefnerNed Foley & Steven Huefner

The Ohio State University The Ohio State University Moritz College of LawMoritz College of Law

Election Law @ MoritzElection Law @ Moritzwww.electionlaw.osu.edu

The Future of Election The Future of Election ReformReform

* Early and Absentee Voting in 2012* Early and Absentee Voting in 2012Trends and Trade-offsTrends and Trade-offs

* Long Lines at Polling Places in 2012* Long Lines at Polling Places in 2012Nature and Extent of ProblemNature and Extent of Problem

* Post-election Considerations* Post-election Considerations The “Blue Shift” and Its ImplicationsThe “Blue Shift” and Its Implications

* Reform Prospects and Obstacles* Reform Prospects and Obstacles

Early and Early and AbsenteeAbsentee

Voting in 2012Voting in 2012Trends and TradeoffsTrends and Tradeoffs

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

Absentee/mail ballots

[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

Early in-person voting

Absentee/mail ballots

[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

MENH

VT

MARICTNY

NJPA

OHINIL

MI

WIMN

IA

MO

ND

SDNE

KS

KEMD

DCVA

WV

NC

SCGAFL

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

LAOK

TX

MT

ID

WY

CO

NM

AZ

UT

NV

WA

OR

CA

AKHI

2000 (CPS)Modes of Voting – 2000[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

AK

AZ

ARCA

CO

CCT

DE

DC

FL

GA

HI

IDIL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN MSMO

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NM

NY

NCND

OH

OK

OR

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WVWI

WY

2012 (SPAE)Modes of Voting – 2012[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

Long Lines atLong Lines atPolling Places in Polling Places in

20122012Nature and Extent of ProblemNature and Extent of Problem

13 min = avg. Election Day wait

63% said most of this time was waiting to check in

[20 min = avg. early voting wait][courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

How Long Did People Wait?

Not at all 37%Less than 10 minutes 31%10-30 minutes 20%31-60 minutes 9%More than one hour 3%

[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

How Long Did People Wait?

Not at all 37%Less than 10 minutes 31%10-30 minutes 20%31-60 minutes 9%More than one hour 3%

Average waiting time for the 3% who waited more than an hour = 129 minutes

VTAK

SDWY

MENE

DEIA

NJMN

NMHI

CTCA

MAMS

NVKY

IDWI

COAZ

PAAL

NDOH

UTNH

RIKS

MOWV

MTTX

ILNY

INAR

NCTN

LAGA

OKMI

SCVA

MDDC

FL

order

0

10

20

30

40

Avg

. min

utes

wai

ting

to v

ote

[courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

Post-Election Post-Election ConsiderationsConsiderations

The “Blue Shift” and Its The “Blue Shift” and Its ImplicationsImplications

Year Colorado Florida Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia

1960 3,238 (0.44) 18,455 (1.20) 1,481 (0.04) 14,927 (0.30) 1,696 (0.22)

1976 4,656 (0.45) 19,618 (0.63) 3,530 (0.09) 5,383 (0.12) 1,248 (0.08)

1980 1,471 (0.14) 52,607 (1.52) 3,904 (0.10) 4,408 (0.10) 2,762 (0.16)

1984 32,691 (2.56) 95,651 (2.29) 3,570 (0.08) 2,851 (0.06) 750 (0.04)

1988 184 (0.01) 55,276 (1.29) 123 (0.003) 2,226 (0.05) 4,999 (0.23)

1992 1,570 (0.13) 14,705 (0.35) 1,873 (0.05) 647 (0.02) 578 (0.03)

1996 259 (0.02) 5,051 (0.11) 11,508 (0.29) 1,977 (0.05) 1,694 (0.08)

2000 166 (0.01) 1,247 (0.02) 6,039 (0.13) 4,489 (0.09) 11,380 (0.43)

2004 32,704 (1.56) 4,060 (0.05) 17,994 (0.32) 22,790 (0.40) 9,556 (0.30)

2008 72,791 (3.08) 42,277 (0.51) 52,627 (0.94) 23,863 (0.40) 79,363 (2.15)

2012 26,794 (1.07) 27,281 (0.32) 65,522 (1.19) 26,146 (0.46) 40,659 (0.88)

Swing State Gains

Year California Maryland New Jersey New York Oregon Washington

1976 12,573(0.16)

313(0.02)

7,845(0.27)

12,797(0.20)

1,501(0.15)

24,111(1.61)

1980 34,531 (0.45)

4,517 (0.32)

12,332 (0.46)

126 (0.002)

2,494 (0.34)

34,254 (2.26)

1984 55,048 (0.59)

14,793 (0.89)

12,480 (0.39)

11,058 (0.16)

15,993 (1.31) 35,526 (1.91)

1988 44,587 (0.46)

9,600 (0.56)

1,731 (0.06)

12,683 (0.20)

1,260 (0.11)

14,691 (0.80)

1992 17,572 (0.20)

11,107 (0.66)

22,456 (0.80)

92,297 (1.59)

14,446 (1.32) 16,005 (0.93)

1996 64,083 (0.72)

12,075 (0.73)

29,360 (1.07)

170,002 (2.99)

41,490 (3.49) 22,709 (1.16)

2000 94,168 (0.90)

4,545 (0.23)

92,023 (2.99)

178,412 (2.76)

32,624 (2.28) 50,104 (2.13)

2004 215,820 (1.76)

36,468 (1.55)

29,601 (0.83)

169,787 (2.33)

5,618 (0.31)

85,899 (3.05)

2008 820,883 (6.18)

133,753 (5.17)

69,188 (1.81)

417,740 (5.95)

116,366 (6.55)

210,565 (7.07)

2012 1,076,448 (8.48)

85,500 (3.23)

81,523 (2.26)

452,635 (6.90)

62,532 (3.63) 224,776 (7.38)

Year All States Swing Big Shift All States Swing Big Shift

1976 1,353(0.26)

4,976(0.21)

5,487(0.33)

4,571(0.46)

6,887(0.27)

9,857(0.40)

1980 4,135(0.41)

11,469 (0.37)

14,834(0.64)

6,616 (0.51)

13,030 (0.40)

14,876(0.64)

1984 7,724 (0.53)

25,962 (0.98)

24,150 (0.87)

9,130 (0.63)

27,103 (1.00)

24,150 (0.87)

1988 3,558 (0.24)

11,671 (0.30)

9,287 (0.28)

5,405 (0.29)

12,562 (0.32)

14,092 (0.36)

1992 4,497 (0.12)

2,635 (0.08)

28,981(0.92)

8,256 (0.48)

3,875 (0.11)

28,981 (0.92)

1996 8,670 (0.25)

1,974 (0.06)

56,620(1.69)

9,945 (0.49)

4,098 (0.11)

56,620 (1.69)

2000 8,230 (0.02)

46 (0.04)

75,479 (1.88)

13,225(0.66)

4,664 (0.66)

75,479 (1.88)

2004 10,035(0.07)

11,952 (0.38)

90,532(1.64)

18,313 (0.82)

17,399 (0.53)

90,532 (1.64)

2008 43,911 (1.04)

54,184 (1.42)

294,749(5.45)

47,287(1.41)

54,184 (1.42)

294,749 (5.45)

2012 45,237 (0.65)

37,280 (0.82)

330,569 (5.31)

49,586 (1.17)

37,280 (0.82)

330,569 (5.31)

Blue Gain States v. Red Gain StatesDemocratic Gain Republican Gain Dem.

StatesRep.

StatesTotal: Winner Loser Total: Winner Loser

1960* 18 13 5 31 21 10 23 26

1976 25 17 8 24 19 5 23 27

1980 13 3 10 36 34 2 6 44

1984 11 0 11 39 38 1 1 49

1988 12 4 8 37 32 5 10 40

1992 29 25 4 20 13 7 32 18

1996 30 32 8 19 11 8 31 19

2000 23 14 9 27 21 6 20 30

2004 27 19 8 23 22 1 19 31

2008 36 28 8 14 14 0 28 22

2012 31 25 6 19 18 1 26 24

State/Year Initial Lead Final Margin

Gain % of initial lead overcome

Missouri/2008 5868 3903 1965 33.49%

New Mexico/2004 12,256 5988 6268 51.14%

Iowa/2004 13,250 10,059 3191 24.08%

Wisconsin/2004 11,813 11,384 429 3.64%

New Mexico/2000 5013 366 4647 92.70%

Iowa/2000 4954 4144 810 16.35%

Wisconsin/2000 6099 5708 391 6.41%

Florida/2000* 1784 537 1247 69.90%

New Hampshire/2000 7282 7211 71 0.98%

Nevada/1996 5253 4730 523 9.96%

Kentucky/1996 13,465 13,331 134 1.0%

New Hampshire/1992 7641 6556 1085 14.20%

Wyoming/1992 11,655 11,187 468 4.02%

Nevada/1992 14,023 13,320 703 5.01%

Ohio/2004 136,483 118,599 17,884 13.10%

Colorado/2004 132,227 99,523 32,704 24.73%

State Initial Lead

Final Margin Gain % of initial lead overcome

Hawaii 117 115 232 198.29%

California 36,551 35,623 72,174 197.46%

Alaska 467 1,144 1,611 344.97%

Missouri 34,081 9,980 24,101 70.72%

Minnesota 27,280 22,018 5,262 19.29%

Texas 50,148 46,257 3,891 7.76%

Pennsylvania 131,253 116,326 14,927 11.37%

Illinois 5,005 8,858 3,853

New Mexico 1,633 3,394 661

Nevada 2,379 2,493 114

National Avg: 4,123

National Abs Val Avg: 7,472

1960 Election Gains

Uncounted ballots: Ohio, 2008 & 2012Type 2008 2012

Provisional (total CAST) 206,859 208,087

Provisional (total UNCOUNTED) 39,989 34,322

Provisional (unregistered) 18,860 20,119

Provisional (wrong precinct) 14,335* 9,482**

Provisional (flawed or no ID) 1,990 363

Provisional (envelope flaw***) 2,201 2,973

Absentee (total CAST) 1,744,753 1,876,174

Absentee (total UNCOUNTED) 23,653 13,211

Absentee (% UNCOUNTED) 1.35% 0.7%

*2008 includes both wrong location and right location**2012 is only wrong location, because of court order on right location ballots*** envelope unsigned, or lacking printed name, or both

Uncounted (& Disputable) BallotsOhio Florida

08 provisional cast 206,859 35,635

08 provisional rejected 39,989 18,323

12 provisional cast 208,087 32,065

12 provisional rejected 34,322 8,666

08 absentee cast 1,744,753 1,850,502

08 absentee rejected 23,653 18,456

12 absentee cast 1,876,174 2,379,478

12 absentee rejected 13,211 23,206

All Ohio numbers from Secretary of State website; 12 Florida from new Smith/Herron data;08 Florida is domestic only, as reported in EAC Election Day Survey

2008Total

BallotsPB Cast PBC

/TBPB

RejectedPB Rej/PB Cast

PBR/TB

PB Counted

Count/PBCast

Count/TB

AZ 2,320,851 151,799 6.54 44,473 29.30 1.92 107,326 70.70 4.62CA 13,798,557 798,332 5.79 136,286 17.07 0.99 518,170 64.91 3.76NY 7,722,019 279,319 3.62 111,843 40.04 1.44 167,514 59.98 2.17OH 5,671,438 204,651 3.61 39,390 19.25 0.69 159,491 77.93 2.81CO 2,426,253 51,824 2.14 8,234 15.89 0.34 36,896 71.19 1.52MD 2,661,905 51,163 1.92 17,151 35.52 0.64 33,311 65.10 1.25NJ 3,910,220 71,536 1.83 5,162 7.22 0.13 53,504 74.79 1.37NC 4,338,197 53,976 1.24 27,469 50.90 0.63 22,188

41.11 0.51PA 6,071,357 32,898 0.54 14,527 44.16 0.24 10,968

33.34 0.18FL 8,514,809 35,635 0.42 18,321 51.41 0.22 17,312

48.58 0.20VA 3,750,065 9,354 0.25 6,738 72.03 0.18 2,578 27.56 0.07MO 2,992,023 6,934 0.23 5,162 74.44 0.17 1,737 25.05 0.06

2008 provisional ballots

X(PB cast rate), Y(PBs rejected/all ballots)

Y(PBs counted/PBs cast)

X(PB cast/all ballots)

Y(PBs counted/all ballots)

X(PBs cast/all ballots)

Y(“gain during canvass”)

X(PBs cast/all ballots)

X(absentee cast rate)/Y(“gain”)

X(ABR+PBR)/Y(“gain”)

X(ABR*PBR)/Y(“gain”)

Evaluating Evaluating DemocracyDemocracy

Pew Election Performance Index

Reform Reform Prospects Prospects

and Obstaclesand Obstacles