The Future of Big History

Fred Spier

How big would the Earth look like  in historyif we factored in human population growth?

Full Earth,as photographedby the crew ofApollo 17,December 1972

Our shrinking Earth

2014: 7 billion1990: 5 billion1960: 3.5 billion1900: 1.8 billion

1800: 1 billion1500: 500 million

0 CE: 250 million

2014: 7 billion1990: 5 billion1960: 3.5 billion1900: 1.8 billion

1800: 1 billion1500: 500 million

0 CE: 250 million

0 CE: 250 million

0 CE: 250 million

0 CE: 250 million5000 BCE: 50 million10,000 BCE: 10 million

200,000 BCE:  10,000 ? 

0 CE: 250 million5000 BCE: 50 million10,000 BCE: 10 million

200,000 BCE:  10,000 ? 

How big would the Earth look like if we also factored in decreasing natural resources?

1500: 500 million

2014: 7 billion1990: 5 billion1960: 3.5 billion1900: 1.8 billion

1800: 1 billion

0 CE: 250 million

What can we expect for the future?

2014: 7 billion2050 9 billion ?2100:  ??2200:  ???

or

Oudemanhuispoort, Amsterdam, NLWhere we started our first big history course, December 1994 CE

SociologistJ. Goudsblom

and myself,Spring 1995 CE

Oudemanhuispoort, Amsterdam

VossiusBarlaeus

Gerardus Vossius1577-1649 CE

De historiae utilitate

Caspar Barlaeus1584-1648 CE

Mercator sapiens

ATHENEUM ILLUSTREFounded in the Agnietenkapel, January 1632 CE

Today,virtually unknown

The Mariners MirroyrLucas Jansz. WaghenaerLeyden, 1584 CE Amsterdam Town Hall

(now Royal Palace), completed 1648 CE

Connecting the heaven and the Earth

Gerardus Mercator1512 – 1594 CE

Jodocus Hondius1563 – 1612 CE

From the Blaeu Atlas,1635 CE

1968 CE

Willem Jansz. Blaeu,1571-1638 CE

1994 CE: Our first big history course

“Virtually unnoticed a self-organizing and anti-hierarchical network is growing, with computer users as nerve nodes within a nerve system.”

John de Vos,Spring 1995 CE

Jona Oberski, Spring 1995 CE

2014 CE: Informatization in full swing

• Information instantly available on all aspects of big history, including YouTube movies and documentaries

• Easy contacts with scholars worldwide

• The Big History Project

• Other online courses, including the new crash course big history.

Today:

What can we do in this situation?

• What is our strength, now trans-disciplinary cooperationhas become so very common ?

• What can big history add to that?

Our IBHA Mission Statement(Articles of Incorporation)

• All knowledge on one single time linetelling us how everything has become the way it is.

• Integrated theoretical approach.

• Zooming in and out throughout history(for instance with Chronozoom as a tool).

• Cherry picking in history according to the needs.

• Combining the harvest of ideas into a new and hopefully useful intellectual frame.

Strength of big history:

On May 7,1959 CE, Charles Percy Snow (1905-1980 CE)delivered an influential Rede Lecture at the Senate House, Cambridge,called The Two Cultures.

Required: Intercultural Communication

Foster worldwide discussions about big history

Big historymay be the first type of history that stands a chance of becoming globally accepted by people living in urban areas.

Of course, discussions will remain about many aspects.

But we may be witnessing the emergence of a Globally-Accepted View of History

much like today there are, for instance,one single geography, physics, chemistry, geology, biology,

all with their discussions and regional emphasis.

Russia:Great initiatives over the past 20 years,especially publications:

Akop Nazaretyan, Andrey Korotayev Leonid Grinin

(various affiliations)

with their pioneering

‘Uchitel’ Publishing HouseIncluding Proceedings of 2012 IBHA Conference

China:Sun Yue, Capital Normal University, Beijing,with the pioneering Global History Review

+ Interview in:

Guangming Daily2012 CE

2014 CE

Primus Books, New Delhi, India,Major big history publication edited by: Barry Rodrigue, Andrey KorotayevLeonid Grinin

A lot more is happening in many other places, many initiatives, many players, much of it on the Internet.

What else can IBHA do to stimulate these discussions?

I think we should let most of it develop spontaneously,

• IBHA conferences as major venue for these discussions.

• Further encourage discussions on our web site.

All suggestions are welcome !

• Support the Big History Project as part of an open discussion.

• Learn more from what they are doing here at Dominican.

• Promote university big history courses worldwide, including MOOCs, for instance in local and regional languages.

• Develop advanced big history courses:• Develop a wider range of course models,• Introduce a wider range of teaching tools,• Develop more advanced big history theories.

Teaching

Develop in-class activities that cannot be done online, related to all phases of big history

• Experiments, preferably with unknown outcome.

- Highlight themes with larger significance, such as observing sun spots, measuring power densities, experimenting with ocean navigation and map making, world fairs,……….

- This is only the beginning of an almost endless range of exciting in-class activities.

1889 CE

1893 CE

In class:• Major themes in big history,

– Energy flows, – Goldilocks circumstances

perhaps in cooperation with other courses, thus building up data bases and networks.

Form of crowd sourcing

• Any themes students come up with that look reasonable.

Big History Research

Ph.D.’s at universities, in cooperation with supervisors from various disciplines

Possible temes:

• General themes in big history

• Little big histories,including zooming in and out while cherry picking

• History of big history

• Pedagogy of big history

Big History Research

Not only of academic value,also useful for:

• Businesses

• Governments

• Independent Institutions

Many goals,But one general goal:

Better understanding of how we got ourselves into the situation we find ourselves in,

So that we can formulate better strategies for the future.

To do all these things, we need financing:

We need ** Wise Merchants **

We can hopefully deliver the knowledge,But we need some money to do so.

In sum:

• I think there is a bright future for big history

• But we will need to work hard to make it happen, and be willing to openly discuss all aspects to achieve the best possible understanding of big history.

• We have come a long way already,

• So, I think, with your energy, intelligence, and perseverance we will make it happen.