The Future of Automotive Technology...The Future of Automotive Technology Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE,...

The Future of Automotive Technology

Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE, FEC, P.Eng.Scientific Director & CEO AUTO21 NCE

Edmonton, AB Sept. 9 - 2015

Western Canada Automotive Service Providers Forum

Automotive Industries Association of Canada

Presentation Outline

Environmental scan of the auto sector

Key auto sector drivers

Major vehicle technology trends:

Materials and body structures

Powertrains

Electronics

Effect on Canada’s vehicle manufacturing sector

Effect on Canada’s automotive service sector

How can AIAC members respond?

Conclusions

The Auto Industry: - what drives it - present status- likely future trends

Go

ve

rnm

en

t

Dem

an

ds

Environmental

& Safety

Good Jobs

Better Value

= Performance / Price (quality, performance, fuel economy, safety,

durability, fun to drive, cool features,

styling, carrying capacity...)

Quality, Reduced Cost,

Speed, Production Flexibility,

Tight Capital & Infrastructure

Regulatory Compliance

Some Key Auto Sector Numbers

Total auto industry R&D in Canada ~ $ 500 M / annually (NOTE: that includes a lot of R&D done in assembly and parts plants that is

not documented nor does it have SR&ED credits applied to it)

HQP & Production Statistics:

Number of auto workers ~ 110,000 direct (2/3 in parts sector);

Number of employees in an assembly plant ~ 5-7000 people

Spin-off jobs in the economy ~ 7-8 per assembly plant job

Production Value ~ 1600 veh./day @ $30-35K each generates:

= $48-56M / day

= $290-336M / week

= $1.12-1.34B / month

= $12.9-15.4B / year

PLUS: The Focus has fuel injection, cam-phasing, airbags, ABS brakes, HID

headlights, air conditioning, PW/PS/PB, power seats, heated mirrors, satellite

radio, bluetooth™ phone, etc. AND it starts every time, and it drives better, it is

quieter, it does not rust and it costs less in 1983 dollars than the Escort cost in

1983 – and the 2015 Focus has even better statistics!

1983 Ford

Escort

2013 Ford

Focus

Curb Weight 1100 kg. 1400 kg.

0-60 Time 15.1 sec. 8.3 sec.

EPA Fuel Economy 23 mpg 31 mpg

BACKGROUND: 30 Years of Automotive Progress

But even those remarkable

improvements are not good

enough to meet the rapidly

evolving regulatory and

consumer market picture…

CAFE REGULATIONS – Complex but mandatory for future

light duty vehicles of all types & sizes

100% change in 15 years!

Understanding R&D in the auto industry:

Progress is evolutionary rather than revolutionary;

(so don’t bet too much on inventing a new light bulb)

Big changes are happening right now (CAFE & ZEV);

Speed, reliability, fiscal discipline and accountability are mandatory;

Global scale – research can be done anywhere;

R&D will be done where the business case is strongest, the skills and infrastructure exist and where program speed & reliability are the highest.

The auto industry follows a highly disciplined Product Development Process (PDP)….

Typical Automotive OEM

Program Manager

Typical Automotive OEM

Program Engineer

Technology & Business Trends in the Future Auto Industry

Sources: Automotive News, Harbour-Felax Group and CSM

Worldwide (courtesy of Magna-Cosma)

Global Production Trend > 100M vehicles

Product Mix

Business Complexity

Powertrains

Body Structures

Vehicle Safety & Comfort

Global OEM (Design Parent) Volume2010 and incremental changes in - 2012, 2015, 2020

Four OEMs at or near 10

million units

Japanese rebound from

2011 as focus shifts to

non-Japan OEMs

VW growth based on

expansion in BRIC

nations

Top 10 OEMs accounted

for 78% of 2010 output –

declining to 74% by

2020 due to the ‘China

Effect’

13

IHS Automotive Consulting

New Model Introductions: not all OEM’s are

introducing new products at the same pace…

Cars are getting more complicated!

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2nd Ed. -1986

3rd. Ed. 1993 4th Ed. 1996 7th Ed. 2007

Bosch Automotive Engineering Handbook Pages

Bosch Handbook Pages

76%

increase

in page

count over

21 years!!

Platforms and Other Business Trends…- simplify and add lightness

wherever possible

Platform Strategies

Automotive News – April 9-2012

OEMs use a common

platform for many

different vehicles by

substituting body styles

or “top hats” (from high-

end sports models to

family vans and SUVs).

Fewer variations provides

economies of scale;

Faster product

development (lower cost);

Better response to the

marketplace;

Big savings in production

tooling and assembly line

hardware.

Materials and Body Structures

- if you look after the grams, the kilograms will look after themselves!

Material use in vehicles – 1985, 1998, 2010

Bio-fibre is separated, refined &

shipped to nonwoven producer

Finished Molded Bio-Fibre

Part is installed into vehicle

Bio-fibre blended with plastic

and formed into nonwoven

Nonwoven mat is molded into the

shape of the interior trim part

Baled Stems available for

year round processing

Bio-Fibre Composite Production Automotive Parts

New Materials in Future Cars

New ultra-high tensile

strength steels are much

stronger than previous

alloys – but they are:

• difficult to drill;

• difficult to bend;

• difficult to weld;

It is easy to reduce these

strength properties by

incorrect repair methods

and this will affect vehicle

safety and durability.

Automotive News – May 6-2013

Weight reduction – forming & joining methods

Everything is optimised for weight reduction…(even the windows and the carpets!)

…and if you think that all that fancy stuff is only for high-end European sports cars…check out what Ford is doing to their highest volume vehicle…

The 2015 Ford F-150 pick-up…

Optimised Steel

Shell Construction

“Body in Black“Steel

Spaceframe

CFRP

Aluminium

Spaceframe

Advanced Light

Metal Spaceframe

Present-day

Steel Shell Body

Construction

Fully Optimized

Advanced Multi-Material

Space Frame-Shell Hybrid

Body Structure Design

Options in lightweight design for

vehicle bodies

New Materials in Vehicle Interiors


New noise damping materials

in pastes and tapes are being

used to reduce squeaks and

rattles in vehicle interiors.

This is important because the

move to lighter structures

makes everything less stiff

and more prone to vibration.

• Repairers must be able to

renew these materials and

assemble them correctly so

that customers get their cars

back in as-new condition.

New Materials in Future Cars

New materials in

brake pads and new

alloys of iron in brake

rotors are being

developed to improve

damping, enhance

stopping performance

and reduce vibration

and noise.


Powertrains- variety is the spice of life!

Powertrain Evolution

Internal Combustion EngineOtto (gasoline) or Diesel ICE

with automatic or manual transmission

Technology Disruption

HEV PHV EV PowertrainsICE + Energy Storage & Electric

Drive & Control

Novel Powertrains+ Energy Storage & Electric Drive

and Control

TODAY

NOW /

SOON

FUTURE?

Key Issues:

• System & total cost

• Battery weight & durability along with warranty issues

• Recharging & fuelling infrastructure (H2, CNG…)

• PEEM efficiency & cost

• Vehicle safety & dynamics

• Lightweight Materials

• Vehicle Packaging

• ICE efficiency continues to improve!

Technology Disruption

Engines, engines, engines…engines galore!

• The Ward’s Automotive Engine listing shows that there will be more than 300 different enginesproduced for light vehicles in 2014…

• …and every one of them will need to be serviced someday by somebody.

Global Engine Cylinder Count - All OEMs

32

Major changes have

occurred in the NA market

with vehicle downsizing

and a move to fewer

cylinders.

Growth of 3 and 2 cylinder

variations as well as

electrification.

Luxury German and

Japanese brands are

downsizing as well mainly

from 6 to 4 cylinders with

mechanical supercharging

or turbosupercharging.

IHS Automotive Consulting

Three cylinder engines…no longer just for odd-ball motorcycles (3 is the new 4)

• 3 cylinder engines with high power and smooth performance are here and more are coming!

• Power = 120+ HP per litre with strong torque at low speeds

• Direct injection / dual cam + variable valve timing

• High compression ratios (11:1 and even more)

• Supercharged and turbocharged

New transmissions – very complex and often hard to get right…but required to achieve high fuel economy

New Powertrain Technologies – ECUs, Turbos

New generation engines (like the

GM Ecotec at right) use VVT,

turbochargers, multiple sensors

and powerful ECU’s to control

engine functions.

This increases power, improves

drivability and reduces noise,

vibration and fuel consumption

– but it adds a lot of complexity.


diagnose and repair these

new technologies in future

generation vehicles.


New Powertrain Technologies - Diesels

The excellent

fuel economy

and on-road

performance of

diesels will

bring new

models to the

market – at a

price.


+25%

New Powertrain Technologies - Batteries

EVs have very sophisticated

batteries:

- heating and cooling systems;

- this flow is critical to protecting the

delicate chemistry of the battery and

ensuring that it functions at top

efficiency.

The figure shows a computer

simulation of the fluid flow through

the passages of one of these

batteries.


diagnose and repair these new

technologies in future generation

vehicles.


Courtesy of Ricardo Inc.

The energy content / kg of different fuels varies over a wide range

– with batteries being the lowest efficiency energy storage media

presently available (about 5-8% of gasoline or diesel fuel)

The biggest problems faced by electric

vehicles in the marketplace are:

• battery cost (which strongly affects total vehicle cost)

• battery performance (range / durability / temperature

performance)

• charging system availability

Until these issues are addressed and vehicles with

performance comparable to conventional vehicles

are available to consumers at an affordable price –

without major government subsidies – EVs will

continue to struggle in the marketplace.

EV`s….unloved

by their own creators…but they are coming to the market anyway as a result of the CAFEregulations.

Electronics

- holy cow – my head hurts!

New Switch Technology in Future Cars

New technology switches

and controls to improve

function and reliability and

reduce packaging space in

vehicle interiors – and

reduce assembly cost.


diagnose and repair these

new technologies in

future generation

vehicles.


Heads-up displays to help keep the driver’s eyes outside the vehicles – just like in jet fighter cockpits

Connected & Automated Cars – Potential Issues?

Security & Safety:

Is the system reliable?

Can the system deal with every on-road situation?

Can a hacker break in and harm the occupants, pedestrians, other motorists or the car itself?

Is the system resistant to tampering or improper modification – even by the vehicle owner or an authorized service person?

How fail-safe is the system (i.e. if something goes wrong, does the system shut down in a safe mode)?


Security & Safety:

How could a hacker access a car (without physical access to the vehicle)?

Bluetooth™ phone systems;

Built-in wifi systems;

Keyless entry systems;

Remote car starters;

Navigation systems;

Anti-theft systems;

Cellular telematics;

Tire pressure monitoring systems (good grief!!)


Compatibility:

How will different automakers ensure compatibility?

How will vehicles of different ages and levels of system capability interact on the road?

What if different national or sub-national governments impose different requirements – can the system operate across borders safely and what about one-off imported vehicles?

Privacy:

Can the system prevent unauthorized use of personal data?

Can the system prevent unauthorized insertion of data?


Monetization – the Business Model:

How much will the system cost initially?

How are operating costs paid and administered: monthly subscription, or is it built into the cost of the vehicle or perhaps into the annual license fee?

What about used cars – is a subsequent owner compelled to continue with all of the subscription fees or can they opt-out?

How are upgrades/updates handled – is there a cost and who collects it, plus what if an owner simply doesn’t want the update or doesn’t want to pay for it?

Warranty – what would the warranty terms be for these systems?


Servicing & Repairs:

These systems have many new technologies:

Cameras, ultrasonic, infrared, radar, sonar, GPS and possibly other types of sensors + servomechanisms for steering etc.;

A great deal of wiring that must be secure and uses new connection technologies such as fibre optics and EM shielding, etc.;

Sophisticated programming including computers and sensor integration packages which must be updated, upgraded and possibly modified in cases where trailers are being towed or the driver uses hand controls or for some other special purpose.

Is your business ready to sell and service these technologies – where will you get training for your folks and do you need new people?

Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass) surveyed automakers about connected and automated cars and recently issued his report with key findings:

Most OEM vehicle manufacturers said they were unaware of, or unable to report on past hacking incidents.

Each OEM is handling the introduction of new technology in different ways, and for the most part, their plans are insufficient to ensure security.

Hackers can get around most security protections cited by manufacturers, according to the security experts consulted by Markey (and a recent TV report showing how two guys with a laptop hacked into a 2014 Jeep Cherokee remotely over the web).

Only one manufacturer appeared able to detect a hacking attempt while it was happening and only two described credible means of responding to such intrusions in real time.

Information from most automakers indicated they wouldn't know about a hacking attempt unless data from the vehicle's computers was downloaded by a dealer or at a service center.

The Markey Report – Washington DC – Feb. 9-2015

Washington DC, AP – Feb. 8, 2015

So – where has all

of this left the auto

industry in 2015…?

Overall Auto Industry Trends:

Reduced vehicle weight / Advanced materials & design;

More diversity and complexity of powertrains with smaller engines and on-board wiring with web access info tech

Turbocharging, supercharging, CVTs, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and even 10-speed transmissions, dual clutch manumatics;

Electrification of the future vehicle with huge efforts on batteries, traction motors, wheel motors, electronic controls & chargers;

Improving the driving experience (safety & comfort)through advanced infotainment and HVAC systems;

????.

Even the ownership pattern of vehicles is changing around the world!

• Ride-sharing – Über™

• Car-sharing – ZipCar™

Who will be your clients?

• Individual owners?

• Fleet owners?

• Clubs and co-ops?

Automotive News – Mar-23-2015

Implications for the Vehicle Service Industry…

Effect on Canada’s vehicle service sector:

More diverse & complex vehicles with many new technologies;

Some technologies are entirely new to the repair industry and some do not lend themselves to “repairs” in the traditional sense:

Aluminium and magnesium are very difficult to weld and nearly impossible to bend back into shape (and carbon fibre is worse) – all of which will have a major affect on body repair;

Electrical problems will be impossible to troubleshoot without specialized diagnostic tools and advanced technician knowledge (thus, working on body electronics and infotainment systems will be much more difficult);

Hybrid and electric vehicle powertrains will be even more complex and managing customer expectations about performance will fall to OEM dealers and to the service and repair segment.

Example: Repair costs for pick-up trucks

Automotive News – Mar-23-2015

US Ford dealerships with body shops (out of 3000 total): 1500

Dealerships with body shops that can repair aluminium: 757

Independent body shops trained to repair aluminium F150: 750

Future powertrains will be much more complex and varied

making parts procurement and repairs & service more difficult;

Servicing, repairing & modifying future vehicles will require

more technology than in the past;

Personnel will need new skills to work on future vehicles

requiring extensive training in whole new areas of technology;

Repair businesses will need to make significant investments to

meet these technology and training requirements;

Those investments coupled with the increasing pace of

modern life will affect all businesses including the vehicle

repair segment.

How does this impact vehicle servicers?

What can AIA members do in response?

People have less spare time and so repair businesses

may need to do more to attract customers and

encourage them to spend time at the shop.

Automotive News – Aug. 8, 2011


Repair businesses may need to offer additional services

to encourage people to spend time at the shop.

Automotive News – Sept. 11, 2011


As vehicle become more complex, repair costs will go up which reduces the affordability of keeping an older car on the road – especially compared with simply buying a used car.

To compete with alternatives (such as car-sharing and used cars), repairers may need to offer financing to help customers complete major work without breaking the family budget.

Reach out to car-sharing co-ops to become their repairer-of-choice.

Automotive News – Dec. 5, 2011

Developing the best people and the best technology for the future of

the automotive industry

www.auto21.ca

www.nce.gc.ca

The Future of Automotive Technology...The Future of Automotive Technology Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE,...

Documents

Transcript of The Future of Automotive Technology...The Future of Automotive Technology Dr. Peter Frise, FCAE,...