The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET...
Transcript of The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET...
The Future Just Happened
WORKSHOP
Geoffrey WongUBS ASSET MANAGEMENT
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The world is underinvested in China
Not to scale, for illustrative purposes onlySources: GDP: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018. MSCI data as at 31 December 2018.
China
United States
Share of global GDP (2019 estimate)
24.5%
16.1%
54.4%
3.6%
MSCI ACWI benchmark weight
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
UnitedStates
China Japan HongKong
UK France Germany India Canada SouthKorea
USD bn
Source: UBS IB, as of 3 April 2018China market includes stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
Domestic China market is the 2nd Largest stock market by mkt. cap
The second–largest stock market in the world, yet hugely under-represented in global portfolios
China Hong Kong
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Index inclusion: Opening up the domestic/China A marketGradual inclusion of China A shares into MSCI Emerging Market index
China26.0%
China A14.6%
100% inclusion(Potential full inclusion)
5% inclusion factor(2018)
20% inclusion factor + 20% China A MidCap
(To be completed Nov 2019)
China30.2%
China A0.7%
China29.4%
China A3.3%
4
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, as of February 2019
Inclusion of China A shares into MSCI indices will see sizeable flows and greater global investor interest
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Differences between China onshore and offshore equities
Onshore market
USD8.2trillion
>3,500 companies
Offshore market
USD4.5trillion
~1300 companies
China HChina A
23% 77%86% 14%
Turnover as % of market totalRetail Institutional
Turnover as % of market totalRetail Institutional
Source: FactSet, UBS IB. As of 3 May 2019Note for turnover charts : (1) HK institutional and retail turnover data is for 2016, (2) HK institutional turnover includes both institutional investor and principal trading conducted by brokers, (3) HK and A share mkt cap data as of 1H 2017. Source: HKEx, SSE, Wind, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Updated end February 2018
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The opportunity set can be very different too
onshore
offshore
Traditional Chinese medicines
Home appliances
Gaming & media Education services
Domestic liquor
E-Commerce
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China offshore: A large opportunity for active investors
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China Opp MSCI China MSCI World
MSCI World: 9.9% ann
MSCI China: 4.4% ann
China Opp: 11.7% ann
Actively managed China Opportunity strategy has performed much better than the MSCI China index
Note: 30 July 2010 to end May 2019, gross of feesSource: Bloomberg, Global Composite System
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China onshore: A larger opportunity for active investors
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Mar
-07
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China A Opp MSCI China A MSCI World
MSCI World from BBG. China A Opp and MSCI China A – for our GCS Wealth index.
Actively managed China A strategy has performed much better than not only the MSCI China A index, but also the S&P 500
China A Opp: 14.0% p.a.
MSCI World: 5.3% p.a.
MSCI China A: 3.5% p.a.
Note: 30th Mar 2007 to end May 2019, gross of feesSource: Bloomberg, Global Composite System
Change means opportunities for active returns
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Long-term structural trends intact
China is...
Sources:1 https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-07-20/chart-chinas-aging-population-101306922.html 2 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/may/05/megaregions-endless-china-urbanisation-sprawl-xiongan-jingjinji3 International Federation of Robotics, September 20174 WTO, 2018
…consumingspender on global tourism4#1
...innovating & automating
most robots installed3#1
…urbanizing
cities1>600
…agingof population over 60 by 205021/3
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Services sector now dominant share of economy...and rising
Note: Primary industry involves the extraction and collection of natural resources. Secondary industry refers to Industry and Construction.Tertiary industry refers to Transport, Storage and Post; Wholesale and Retail Trade; Hotels & Catering Services; Financial Intermediation; Real Estate and OthersGCF: gross capital formation; GFCF: gross fixed capital formationThis information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any securitySource: FactSet, UBS Asset Management. Data as of December 2018
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Total Consumption Total Investment (GCF)
% of GDP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry
% of GDP
Rebalancing towards a more service…. …more consumption driven economy
As consumer incomes rise, consumption tends to gravitate towards services from goods
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Consumption: Premiumization is a key themeChinese consumers are favoring premium brands over lower end products
3.6%
15.1%
25.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Total car sales BMW Mercedes Benz
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of end December 2017. Source: Bernstein Research, updated April 2018
-0.40%
2.40%
5%
10.60%
14.80% 15.00%
1%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Low Price Value Standard Premium SuperPremium
UltraPremium
TotalBaiju
China: auto sales growth, 2017 (YoY %) China: Baijiu volume CAGR (2016-2020E)
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China's 65+ population is expected to grow extensively
0.2 0.20.5 1.5
3.0
5.91.9%
0.7%
2.4%
3.1%
4.0%
4.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UK Japan Russia US India China
Annual Increase in 65+ Population (m)CAGR (%) in 65+ Population
(m)Annual increase in population above 65 between 2015 – 2030
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, 2017
Can this challenge also offer investment opportunities….?
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China 4.2%US 7.3%
UK 10.2%
Taiwan 20.0%
An ageing population creates investment opportunities
780
2,500
0
1000
2000
3000
2017 2030 (f)
UK 1%
Japan 5%
US 10%
China45%
Rest of World17%
Rest of APAC22%
Healthcare market size in China (USD billions)
Insurance penetrationGross written premiums as % of GDP
Asset Management ServicesForecasted growth in AUM* between 2017-2021e (%)
Source: China Daily, December 2017Source: Ernst & Young: Global Insurance Trends Analysis, July 2018 Source: Casey Quirk, 2017; * AUM = Asset under Management
An ageing population creates rising demand for healthcare, insurance and asset management services
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Growth spurred by increasing R&D and innovation
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0 20,000 40,000 60,000
R&D
Spen
ding
, % o
f GDP
China (2007):US$49bn
China (2017):US$265bn
US:US$506bn
Japan:US$144bn
Germany:US$97bn
Korea:US$58bn
Taiwan:US$16bn
GDP Per Capita, USD
UK:US$49bn
India (2015):US$13bn
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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Inte
rnat
iona
l Pat
ent A
pplic
atio
ns ('
000)
China Japan US UK GermanyNote: Bubble size shows R&D spending amountSource: OECD, WIPS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Data as of 2016 unless otherwise specified
Source: OECD, WIPS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, as of end December 2017
Strong growth in China’s R&D spending …and international patent applicationsLeading to paradigm shift in quality and consumption of products and services
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China is poised to play in an automated future
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397
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748
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0 200 400 600 800 1,000
2020 (f)
2019 (f)
2018 (f)
2017
2016
2015China Japan US
(units in '000)
China is ramping up robotics installations and automating its manufacturing sector
Total installed robots by country, 2016 – z2020 (f)
Source: International Federation of Robotics, September 2017
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Private sector has better growth, profits and health than SOEs
Debt to Asset Ratio for Industrial Enterprises Return on Asset for Industrial Enterprises
Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of September 2018
51%
56%
61%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Jul-2018Total SOEs Private
0%
5%
10%
15%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Jul-2018Total SOEs Private
5% 21%47% 57% 70%
95%79%
53% 43% 30%
0%
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40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2010 2016 Current 2020ENon-SOE SOE
Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 2018 Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 2018
Private companies have healthier corporate balance sheet ROA has recovered from the previous lows
Private new econ vs old econ vs SOE – Earnings CAGR 2012-17 Composition of SOE and non-SOE in MSCI China
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, as of December 2018Note: This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security
5%
19%
30%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
SOE Private - old economy Private - new economy
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TAL Education: a leader in after-school tutoring (ADR/offshore)
124 150 190 229 274 324 382 447 537 644 760 897
1,031
0
500
1,000
1,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
(RMBbn)
TAL Education− Focuses on high-end segment− Largest online teaching platform; potential future growth driver
in online platform− Exploring overseas expansion
in Hong Kong and US− Looking into artificial intelligence
to improve online teaching services
A leader in K12 (kindergarten to 12th grade)K-12 tutoring market is consolidating even as it continues to grow rapidly
#1
Strong demand due to intense competition for places in local universities
Source: UBS Asset Management. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security.
China's after-school tutoring market still growing rapidly
Source: CLSA, iResearch, as of May 2017
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China 4.2%US 7.3%
UK 10.2%
Taiwan 20.0%
Ping An Insurance: leading life insurer (dual-listed)China’s insurance market penetration is low by international standards…
Source: Company data, JP Morgan, data up to December 2016. Updated July 2017
Ping An Insurance
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16
RMB mn
China Life Ping An CPIC New China Life
High agent productivity (Average First Year Premium per agent per month)
Source: Ernst & Young: Global Insurance Trends Analysis, July 2018
Insurance penetrationGross written premiums as % of GDP
…but that is set to grow
Beneficiary of structural growth in China
Insurance penetration rate is low and insurance affordability increases
More than just an insurance company – innovative company that has suite of digital financial businesses
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Kweichow Moutai: premium liquor provider (A share/onshore)
#1
Double digit growth for premium segment
Strong brand name, distribution and pricing power
High barriers to entry
-0.40%
2.40%5%
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14.80% 15.00%
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4%
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12%
16%
Low Price Value Standard Premium SuperPremium
UltraPremium
Total Baiju
Why we like Kweichow Moutai
Baijiu segments in ChinaEstimated volume growth CAGR over 2016-2020
White liquor brand in China
Complex flavourgrain and water used from Moutai town
Buried for 4 years
The elephant in the room
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• The path of trade negotiations between the US and China, and other countries, remains hard to predict. We take a number of perspectives to triangulate on possible outcomes.
• Observed data: weakness in capex, especially in EM, as companies defer capex. Trade volumes have tapered but not collapsed. Perhaps some pre-ordering. Trade has been shifting away from China even before Trump.
• Economic modelling suggests a worst case scenario of recession from late 2019 to late 2020. Thereafter growth resumes. • Corporate survey data and on the ground research: Shifts to SE Asia, Mexico. Some Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese
company will re-shore from China to the home country. Majority of Asian companies to change supply chain significantly. Behavior varies by industry.
• Conclusion: the risks are concentrated over the next 12-24 months, as the suspension of capex is already having a dampening effect on the economy. The slowdown risks becoming a moderate sized recession in event of tariff escalation. Beyond the 24 month horizon, investment should resume in a modified geographic pattern. In event of no escalation, a full blown recession may be avoided; capex resumes as supply chains are rebuilt to adjust to tariffs, helping a gradual recovery along with government stimulus measures.
Triangulating on the trade issue
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Without US-China deal, global tariffs may revert to 2003 levels
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30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
% Average applied weighted tariff across all products – US and globally
Weighted avg tariff US current level (June '19) After full China escalationIncluding car tariffs Including hypothetical Mexico tariffs with car tariffsWeighted avg tariff global
US tariffs: If 25% tariff applied on all Chinese + Mexico imports + car tariffs imposed we are back at 1941 level
US tariffs: We are back at 1974 levels with May's China escalation
US tariffs: after full China escalation back at '47 level
The US accounts for75% of the increase inthe global weighted avgtariff the last 2 years,(the other 25% is RoWretaliation to thosetariffs) pushing us backto 2003) levels
Source: UBS, USITC, as of June 2019.
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US tariffs could make it more restrictive than China
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Sin
Bot
Mau Alb
Swaz NZ
Om
aC
an US
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Cyp Ger
Spa
EU Fra
Gre
Hun Ita Lu
xM
al Pol
Rom Slov Nic
Arm
Tim
Kaz
Tur
UAE Ku
wBa
hQ
atN
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olR
usM
ac Par
Sey
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alFr
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ruC
hile
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uy Ecu
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a CI
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kTo
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gria
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ep Sol
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Gab Be
r
%Applied tariff rate, weighted mean, all products
ChinaMexico
Canada
EUUS
If the US were to fully escalate and apply a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods as well as impose car tariffs, its weighted avg tariff (8.87%) would be between that of Algeria & Senegal. A drop from rank 19 (in 2016) to 116 (in 2019)
Source: UBS IB as of July 2019. Note: Source: World Bank (2016 data), UBS [Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.]
US tariffs have moved it from one of the most open economies in the world to one of the more restrictive
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Trade already affected, capex in EM particularly affected
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in Millions
Quarterly capex (USD mn)World exports
Source: UBS Asset Management, Bloomberg, IMF, as of Jun 2019IMF Direction of Trade World (DOT) Exports to World, reported on Free On Board (FOB) basis. Time series data includes estimates derived from reports of partner countries for non-reporting and slow-reporting countries.Source: UBS Asset Management, Bloomberg, IMF, as of 30 April 2019
0.00
5.00
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15.00
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25.00
30.00
35.00
Q22019
Q22018
Q22017
Q22016
Q22015
Q22014
Q22013
Q22012
Q22011
Q22010
EM Capex DM Capex
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How much share has each region gained/lost in the world export market (change as % of world exports)
How much share has each region gained/lost in the US imports market (change as 5 of total US imports)
Investment Approvals (Secondary Industries)
Who has gained and lost so far?
0 100 200 300 400
ID
MY
PH
SG
TH
VN
KR
TW
Mar-19 Dec-18 Sep-18 1H18 15 - 17 (avg)
4Q Rolling Sum(2015=100)
Source: 1st and 2nd charts from left: Haver, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 20193rd chart: CEIC, Citi Research, as of July 2019
-3.8%
-0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
1.2%
1.2%
-4.5%
0.1%
0.2%
0.9%
1.1%
1.4%
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0%
China
CEEMEA
Japan
LATAM
AxJ ex-China
Euro Area
Since Dec-17 Since Dec-18
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
AXJ ex-China
China
Euro Area
Japan
Latam
US
CEEMEA
Since Dec-18 Since Dec-17
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• Majority (60%) of large/mid size Asia-Pac corporates say they are making major changes to their supply chain, though they still rank tariffs below regulation, disruption, and cost-pressures as a risk. Favored relocation destinations are in SE Asia. Cross-border investment spend on average is expected to increase [Baker & Mckenzie survey of 600 large and mid size Asian corporates, 2019]
• Response varies by Industry: Apparel is very mobile and shifts quickly to low cost countries due to short supply chain. Autos will have regional centers (Mexico/US/Canada, and Thailand/China/Indonesia/Japan/Korea). Tech Hardware may remain in China/Taiwan due to specialist component innovation in Shenzhen and Taiwan. Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese companies lean to partial re-shoring to the home base.
On the ground feedback
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China economy has limited direct exposure to the US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Investment36%
China 2018 GDP Export by countryvs
Consumption62% Others
EU
BRI (BR + RU + IN)Japan
ASEAN
HTK (HK + TW + KR)
USA19%
Source: UBS AM, Factset, as of 28 May 2019
Net Exports 2%
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MSCI China too has limited direct exposure to US revenues
Asia / Pacific, 95.9%
US, 1.8%
Europe, 1.3%Americas ex-US, 0.6%
Africa and Middle East, 0.4%Unspecified, 0.0%
Sources of revenue for companies listed on MSCI China
Source: UBS AM, Factset, as of 28 May 2019
Revenues from China
>90%
Revenues from US
~2%
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Growth impact of US/China tariffs by region (Q219-Q420)Global growth – baseline vs trade disruption (QoQ annualized rates)
Estimating impact of potential tariffs, "worst case"
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20
% QoQ, saar
Baseline China/US tariffs China/US/Mexico tariffs
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
US China Europe RoW World
bps
RoW growth elasticity China growth elasticity US growth elasticity
Huawei 2nd order effect 1st order effect
Source:.UBS IB, Haver, projections as of July 2019Note for RHS chart: this compares the index level of GDP at end 2020 with and without tariffs
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Policy measures to partly offset risks from trade conflict
Monetary policy easing to provide adequate liquidity
Relaxed regulations
1 2
3 4
Source: UBS Asset Management, Wind
Fiscal stimulus to cushion economic slowdown
Encouraged foreign investment and trade ex-US
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• Investing in China equities is more about the active return than the beta.• Long term trends are present in a changing China. This should continue to provide the
opportunity for active returns..• Trade war: the risks are concentrated over the next 12-24 months, as the suspension of capex
is already having a dampening effect on the economy. The slowdown risks becoming a moderate sized recession in event of tariff escalation. Beyond the 24 month horizon, investment should resume in a modified geographic pattern. In event of no escalation, a full blown recession may be avoided; capex resumes as supply chains are rebuilt to adjust to tariffs, helping a gradual recovery along with government stimulus measures.
Summary
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Years of investment industry experience: 32
Education: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), SM, SB, MBA
Geoffrey Wong, CFA
Geoffrey Wong is Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities with overall responsibility for all Emerging Markets, Asian, Japanese and Australian equity teams, strategies and research. Geoffrey is also responsible for research, portfolio management and construction for Emerging Market Strategies.He chairs the Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee and is based in Singapore.Geoffrey joined UBS in 1997. His prior experience includes co-founding an Asian investment management firm, where he served as Director of Investment Management responsible for asset allocation and stock selection for global and regional institutional portfolios.Geoffrey served on the board of directors of Singapore Exchange, the combined stock and futures exchange of Singapore between 2003 and 2006. He is a member of the Singapore Society of Financial Analysts and a Fellow of the Institute of Banking and Finance.
Note: As at March 2019
Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific EquitiesManaging Director
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Offers will be made only to qualified investors by means of a prospectus or confidential private placement memorandum providing information as to the specifics of the offering. No offer of any interest in any product will be made in any jurisdiction in which the offer, solicitation or sale is not permitted, or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer, solicitation or sale.The achievement of a targeted ex-ante tracking error does not imply the achievement of an equal ex-post tracking error or actual specified return. According to independent studies, ex-ante tracking error can underestimate realized risk (ex-post tracking error), particularly in times of above-average market volatility and increased momentum. Different models for the calculation of ex-ante tracking error may lead to different results. There is no guarantee that the models used provide the same results as other available models.This document is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. UBS Asset Management is not a fiduciary or adviser with respect to any person or plan by reason of providing the materials or content herein. Any investment, accounting, legal or taxation position described in this document is a general statement and should only be used as a guide. It does not constitute investment, accounting, legal or tax advice and is based on UBS Asset Management’s understanding of current laws and their interpretation, including under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 or Department of Labor regulations. As individual situations may differ, clients should seek independent professional tax, legal, accounting or other specialist advisors as to the legal and tax implication of investing. Plan sponsors and other fiduciaries should assess their own circumstances when evaluating potential strategies or investments. Strategies may include the use of derivatives. Derivatives involve risks different from, and possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other instruments. Derivatives require investment techniques and risk analyses different from those of other investments. If a manager incorrectly forecasts the value of securities, currencies, interest rates, or other economic factors in using derivatives, the portfolio might have been in a better position if the portfolio had not entered into the derivatives. While some strategies involving derivatives can protect against the risk of loss, the use of derivatives can also reduce the opportunity for gain or even result in losses by offsetting favorable price movements in other portfolio investments. Derivatives also involve the risk of mispricing or improper valuation, the risk that changes in the value of a derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate, index, or overall securities markets, and counterparty and credit risk (the risk that the other party to a swap agreement or other derivative will not fulfill its contractual obligations, whether because of bankruptcy or other default). Gains or losses involving some options, futures, and other derivatives may be substantial (for example, for some derivatives, it is possible for a portfolio to lose more than the amount the portfolio invested in the derivatives). Some derivatives tend to be more volatile than other investments, resulting in larger gains or losses in response to market changes. Derivatives are subject to a number of other risks, including liquidity risk (the possible lack of a secondary market for derivatives and the resulting inability of the portfolio to sell or otherwise close out the derivatives) and interest rate risk (some derivatives are more sensitive to interest rate changes and market price fluctuations). Finally, a portfolio’s use of derivatives may cause the portfolio to realize higher amounts of short-term capital gains (generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates) than if the portfolio had not used such instruments.Services to U.S. persons are provided by UBS Asset Management (Americas) Inc. ("Americas") or UBS Asset Management Trust Company. Americas is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (Note that an investment adviser does not have to demonstrate or meet any minimum level of skill or training to register with the SEC). From time to time, Americas’ non-US affiliates in the Asset Management Division who are not registered with the SEC ("Participating Affiliates") provide investment advisory services to Americas' U.S. clients. Americas has adopted procedures to ensure that its Participating Affiliates are in compliance with SEC registration rules.UBS Asset Management (Americas) Inc., a Delaware corporation, is a member of the UBS Asset Management business division of UBS Group AG, a publicly traded Swiss bank (NYSE: UBS). UBS Asset Management (Americas) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of UBS Group AG.Copyright © UBS 2019. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.