The Future

Is Renewable:

Targets and Policies

By Country

Phillip Riley Research Series

Japan | January 2017

2

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The Future

Is Renewable:

Targets and Policies

By Country

Japan | January 2017

Author:

Sophie Materia

4

The Future Is Renewable:

Targets and Policies By Country

Located in Eastern Asia, Japan’s large population in proportion to its small land-mass

has resulted in the delayed implementation of renewable energy techniques. The

current renewable energy target for Japan states that by 2030, renewable energy will

account for 22% to 24% of the country’s power mix1. When this target was set in June

2014, renewable energy accounted for approximately 15%, and imported fossil fuels

accounted for a large majority of Japan’s power generation. A further Intended

Nationally Determined Target aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% from

2013 levels by 20302. In order to achieve this, a self-sufficiency sub-target has been

set. The sub-target aims to increase Japan’s renewable energy production by reducing

the amount of imported fossil fuels following the closure of the Fukushima Daiichi

Nuclear Power Plant following the 2011 Fukushima earthquake. This target is

progressing well due to the recent spike in solar installation in 2014 and 2015.

Although there was some scepticism around Japan meeting its renewable energy

targets, following the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the recent shift towards renewable

energy is a step in the right direction.

Prior to the 2011 Fukushima earthquake, Japan’s energy mix was highly dependent on

coal and nuclear power, with minimal contributions from renewable energy

technologies. In years preceding 2011, the renewable energy mix consisted mainly of

hydropower and biomass. Following the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japan saw a

major shift to oil and natural gas. The unexpected nature of the earthquake resulted in

Japan having no choice but to import large quantities of oil, natural gas and coal.

1 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan’s Energy Plan, 2015, http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/brochures/pdf/energy_plan_2015.pdf2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Submission of Japan’s Intended Nationally

Determined Contribution, 2015

http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Japan/1/20150717_Japan's%20INDC.pdf

5

Japan

Following this event, Japan imported approximately 84% of its energy supply3. During

this period, Japan received majority of its oil from the Middle East, particularly Saudi

Arabia and imported coal from Australia. This illustrates the highly dependent nature

of Japan’s energy mix, demonstrating why a large emphasis has been placed on the

self-sufficiency target. Japan’s dependency following the Fukushima earthquake

provides an explanation as to why the implementation of renewable energy

technologies has been delayed.

In 2012, Japan implemented a Feed-in Tariff (FiT) for renewable energy production.

The policy states that electric power companies are obliged to purchase electricity

generated from renewable energy sources, on a fixed period contract at a fixed price4.

This policy, which is still in place today, is adjusted yearly to promote investment in

renewable energy technologies. The implementation of the FiT has allowed capital

investment for renewable energy supply to increase greatly. This in turn has resulted in

a major increase in the installation of solar photovoltaic. So much so that in both 2014

and 2015, Japan was one of the three largest solar installation markets5. Although the

FiT provided a major increase in installed solar photovoltaic, it was not as successful

for other renewable technologies, namely wind and geothermal power generation.

In 2014 the Japanese Government released the Strategic Energy Plan, which is the

basis for Japan’s new energy policy, following the 2011 earthquake. A key area of the

energy plan discusses lowering Japan’s dependency on nuclear power generation. The

policy also looks into further implementation of renewable energy techniques,

continuing on from the successful FiT scheme. The plan looks into greater expansion of

wind and geothermal power generation. The Strategic Energy Plan also looks into the

3 http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx4 Minsisty of Economy, Trade and Industry, Design of the Japanese feed-in-tariff scheme,

2012, http://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/renewable/pdf/fit20100804a.pdf5 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, IEEFA Japan Briefing: Japan’s Energy Transformation,

2016, http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Japan-Energy-Brief.pdf

6

development of offshore wind power and geothermal energy. In particular, the policy

intends to market Fukushima as the renewable energy industry centre. This is being

done by a research program involving large floating offshore wind power generation.

Other research related to geothermal and renewable energy is also being conducted in

Fukushima.

Implemented in 2015, the Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook provides a

more detailed look into the consequences of the 2011 earthquake, and the future of

Japan’s energy mix. The 2015 Outlook acknowledges the general public’s concern

surrounding nuclear energy, resulting from the earthquake. However, the outlook still

pushes towards nuclear energy being part of Japan’s energy mix in the future. The

policy also looks into the continued diversification of Japan’s energy supply; away from

fossil fuels and towards renewable energy technologies. In order to achieve this

revised energy mix, specific details relating to the aforementioned self-sufficiency

target were included. The target states that by 2030, Japan’s self-sufficiency rate aims

to increase to approximately 24.3%6. This is not a large percentage when compared to

other non-resource-producing countries; and this is attributed to Japan’s self-

sufficiency rate decreasing to a record low 6.1% in 20137. The main aim of this target is

to increase self-sufficiency to levels greater than they were, prior to the 2011

earthquake. The 2015 Outlook also emphasises the importance of a well balanced

power mix being implemented in order to achieve environmental suitability, economic

efficiency, safety and a stable supply.

Japan has received some scrutiny over their renewable energy targets, with the

Climate Action Tracker rating them as inadequate. It is stated that, not only are the

6 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook, 2015,

http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0716_01a.pdf7 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan’s Energy Plan, 2015

http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/brochures/pdf/energy_plan_2015.pdf

Japan

7

targets not in line with many other similar developed countries, but also, they are

unlikely to reach them by 20308. This may be due to the fact that although solar

installation increased greatly in 2015, thermal coal imports also rose by 4.8% to a

record high9. Furthermore, Japan also received criticism over changing their 2020

target. The original 2020 target was a 25% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by

202010. However, at the 19th Conference of the Parties (COP19) in Warsaw, Japan’s

2020 emissions reduction target was revised to 3.8% from 2005 levels. This revised

target would see greenhouse gas emissions increase by 5% from 1990 levels11.

Furthermore the new 2020 target assumes no nuclear power in 2020. This is a

contradiction to their current energy policy which foresees nuclear power as a major

source of electricity production in the future. Although Japan has received some

criticism resulting from lack of commitment, it is predicted that as Japan’s energy

sector evolves, a further shift away from coal towards more sustainable energy

production will occur.

In the last decade Japan has made progress towards achieving their renewable energy

targets, with a few ups and downs along the way. A research brief 12 released by The

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicted that this trend

of renewable energy growth in Japan is likely to continue into the future. The brief

found that Japan’s dependency on coal and gas is declining. IEEFA stated that although

Japan saw coal import growth in 2015, this is a trend that is unlikely to last. The brief

also saw that Japan’s overall energy demand is declining as well, due to a change in the

consumption of energy. An example of this is demonstrated through a reduction in the

number of individuals driving. Many young Japanese individuals drive

8 http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/developed/japan.html9 http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-energy-demand-idUKKCN0V30N610 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction

targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, 2011

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sb/eng/inf01r01.pdf11 http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/developed/japan.html12 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), IEEFA Japan Briefing: Japan’s Energy

Transformation, 2016, http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Japan-Energy-Brief.pdf

Japan

8

less than their parents, and the cars driven are often more energy efficient. The study

also foresees solar photovoltaic growth to continue under the FiT scheme. These

figures are in line with Japan’s 2030 target, with aims of continued renewable energy

growth. Japan’s future target pledges to cut emissions by 80% by 205013. Japan intends

to do this by strengthening technology development, research and collaboration in the

renewable energy field.

13 National Energy and Environment Strategy For Technical Innovation towards 2050, 2016,

http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/nesti/honbun_e.pdf

Japan

9

Resource: http://www.iea.org/

0 20000 40000 60000 80000

Solar PV

Wind

Municipal Waste

Hydro

Geothermal

Total

2004 2014

Power Generation by Source, Japan (2006)

Power Generation by Source, Japan (2015)

CO2 Emissions per capita (t CO2 / population)*

1. Taiwan 10.68

2. Japan 9.35

2. Singapore 8.29

3. Malaysia 7.37

4. China 6.66

5. Thailand 3.60

6. Indonesia 1.72

7. Vietnam 1.58

8. Philippines 0.97

Installed Renewable Generation Capacity (MW), Japan

Resource: http://www.iea.org/*From fuel combustion onlyresource: http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/

CO2 Intensity of nations in the region

27%

28% 9%

2%

34% 34%

39%

9%

8%1%

10%

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil-based

Hydro

Nuclear

Otherrenewables

10

Clean Technica, Fossil Fuels Lose Out In Japan’s Power Sector Transformation, 2016,https://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/10/fossil-fuels-lose-japans-power-sector-transformation/

Independent Statistics & Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Japan is the second largest net importer of fossil fuels in the world, 2013, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=13711

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies, Renewables 2016 Japan Status Report, Summary, 2016, http://www.isep.or.jp/en/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/JSR2016Summary-EN.pdf

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, The Paris Agreement, 2017, http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Japan, 2016, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/EnergyPoliciesofIEACountriesJapan2016.pdf

International Energy Agency, Global Renewable Energy: Japan, 2015, http://www.iea.org/policiesandmeasures/renewableenergy/?country=Japan

Japan Atomic Industrial Forum Inc, Nuclear Power Plants in Japan, 2017,

http://www.jaif.or.jp/en/npps-in-japan/

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Japan’s Second Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015, http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/biennial_reports_and_iar/submitted_biennial_reports/application/pdf/japan_br2_revised.pdf

World Energy Council, Energy Resources: Japan, 2016, https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/japan/

The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electricity Review Japan, 2016, http://fepc-dp.jp/pdf/03_electricity.pdf

The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Profile of Japan's Major Power Generation Sources, 2017 http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/electric_power_sources/

Further Resources