The Future is Here: Transforming...
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The Future is Here: Transforming Energy
Elizabeth DorisLaboratory Program Manager: State, Local, and Tribal GovernmentsPresented to The Center for the New Energy Economy Legislative AcademyBreckenridge, Colorado September 12, 2018
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Title: Content Slide
NREL | 2
NREL advances the science and engineering of energy efficiency,
sustainable transportation, and renewable power technologies and
provides the knowledge to integrate and optimize energy systems.
Transforming Energy through Science
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National economic impact
facilities, renowned technology experts
World-classwith industry, academia, and
government
Partnershipsoperates as a
living laboratory
Campus National economic
impact
NREL at a Glance
$872Mannually
1,800
Employees,
early-career researchers and visiting scientists
\
nearly
750National economic impact
plus more than
400
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Messaging + Blue Infographic
Content
NREL | 4
Bioenergy
Vehicle Technologies
Hydrogen
Sustainable Transportation
Buildings
Advanced Manufacturing
Government Energy Management
Energy Efficiency
Solar
Wind
Water
Geothermal
RenewablePower
Bioenergy
Vehicle Technologies
Hydrogen
Sustainable Transportation
Buildings
Advanced Manufacturing
Government Energy Management
Energy Efficiency
High-Performance Computing
Data and Visualizations
Energy SystemsIntegration
NREL’s Areas of Focus
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Costs for Renewable
Technologiesare Falling
Advanced energy technologies are providingreal-world solutions
• They drive a domestic energy economy and are increasingly cost-competitive
• Energy manufacturing and installations provide major opportunities for American workers
Source: DOE Revolution Now (2016)
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Renewables Represent Growing Share of U.S. Generation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Far from “alternative,” renewable energy is the new normal in the United States
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Renewable Electricity Futures Study
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Baselin
e
30%
RE
40%
RE
50%
RE
60%
RE
70%
RE
80%
RE
90%
RE
% o
f T
ota
l G
en
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ted
E
lectr
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Percent RE
Wind
PV
CSP
Hydropower
Geothermal
Biomass
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Variable Generation
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Like a laptop.
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• Understand how the system changes
• Understand how the system responds
More Detail, Deeper Insights
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More Data, Better Resolution
• 1,000 times more wind and solar data, from GBs to TBs
• Transmission models have moved from 10s of nodes to nearly 100,000
• Every generator in North America, and many more around the world
• It’s not just the data, it’s the tools to use the data: reV (above)
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Dynamics Operations Planning
Data
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Electricity
Electricity
ElectricityElectricity
Electricity
Electricity
Integrated Electricity
Modeling
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Modeling at Scale
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80% renewable energy appears
feasible, at a national level
• All renewables will play a role
• Flexibility will be crucial
• Demand is part of the solution
• Transmission and storage need to be built
What’s it telling us?
• The last 20% is the hardest
• Seasonal variability might be very hard to overcome
• Decarbonizing the rest of the energy sector becomes more valuable than getting the last 5%
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Incoming!
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What can I do with that?
NREL provides decision grade information Six currently available programs by jurisdiction and technology type• Over 1,800 completed requests since 2009• Impact measurement built in• Integrated into measured capacity building pipeline
Jurisdictions inquiries inform research agenda.• City carbon abatement potential • Unlocking Solar for Low- and Moderate-Income
Residents: A Matrix of Financing Options by Resident, Provider, and Housing Type
• PV Survivability
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkJ0p8O5ziM
Bridging the Gap
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Impetus
History The Software Applications to Date Roadmap
Context
Hawaii Energy Goals
Challenge
Affect many sectors
Need
Cross-sectoral look
Approach
Cross-sectoral model
Affect multiple
stakeholders
Stakeholder Input
Communi-cation
Visualization
Stakeholder discussions
US DoE Energy Transition Initiative sponsors NREL to support Hawaii State Energy Office in model development to explore paths to the 2045 RPS
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Core Model and Software Tools Criteria
History The Software Applications to Date Roadmap
Core model chosen for: Dev tools chosen for
• Accessibility, facilitating ongoing and ad-hoc use by stakeholders➢ Open-source➢ Inexpensive or free
• Extensibility / flexibility (beyond bulk power sector)
• Good documentation and in active development
• Rapid UI development capabilities for development of general-purpose, easily configurable tool
• Data management and collaboration features
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Using world class tools presented
through immersive user experiences and
leveraging high performance computing
capabilities, we are enabling multi-
stakeholder influenced, actionable
energy systems planning
NREL | 22
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Known Complex Questions
“How will my technology perform in a complexmarketplace?”
“Do technology development and cost trends impact a broader energy system?”
“What are the optimal energy and infrastructure configurations to meet our future needs?”
What are the national/global implications for technology change?
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How energy technology development and cost trends impact a broader market?
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Scientific collaboration:
exploring opportunities for
supercomputing and advanced
visualization to enable
transformation
https://vimeo.com/natlrenewableenergylab/review/289144914/fc1a7d0c78
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Delivering
the Capability Broadly
•Mobile technology in development allows for collaborative analysis in a traveling immersive environment • Vision is to allow for disparate
stakeholders to interact in the same immersive environment to identify priorities • Applications:• Mobile stakeholder driven planning,
with access to real/near real time scenario adjustments and ‘what if’ analysis
• Prioritizing donor strategies in developing countries across multiple continents NREL | 24
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www.nrel.gov
Thank you
This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.
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State-of-the art
Tools
An integrated
and visualized
approach
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States and Local Governments:
Timely, Decision-Grade
InformationD
ata
An
alys
is
Tech
no
logy
Inte
grat
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Rep
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ility