The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

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Managing for Change Not Just Persistence Dr. Bruce Stein Director, Climate Change Adaptation National Wildlife Federation June 5, 2013

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Managing for Change Not Just Persistence Dr. Bruce Stein Director, Climate Change Adaptation National Wildlife Federation June 5, 2013. The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra. Unfortunately, the Future is Now!. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Page 1: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Managing for ChangeNot Just Persistence

Dr. Bruce Stein Director, Climate Change Adaptation

National Wildlife Federation

June 5, 2013

Page 2: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

The future ain’t what it used to be.-- Yogi Berra

Page 3: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Unfortunately, the Future is Now!

Page 4: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

--- Wayne Gretsky

Page 5: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

What Constitutes Good Adaptation?

• Adaptation an emerging field• Still poor understanding of what climate

adaptation means

• Most guidance still at very high level; little operational advice

• Danger of existing work simply re-labeled as adaptation

• Strong interest in understanding what truly constitutes climate adaptation and how it can be operationalized

Page 6: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Climate-Smart Conservation

• NWF-led expert workgroup developing criteria and guidance for “climate-smart” conservation

• Follows on successful guidance publication and training on vulnerability assessment

• Products will include published guide and training course through FWS National Conservation Training Center

Page 7: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Iron Chef Adaptation Edition

What’s in Your Basket?

Page 8: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

The Secret Sauce for Successful Adaptation

Intentionality

Page 9: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Link Actions to Climate Impacts• Show your work!

• Climate lens important even if you continue doing the same thing

• Address short-term threats in a longer-term context

Page 10: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Managing for ChangeNot Just Persistence

Historical Range of Variability

Global Average January Temperatures. Source: NOAA 2009

Stationarity is Dead!

Page 11: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Anticipating Change Along the Delaware Coast

Breached levees and inundated coastal impoundments, Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge

Creating new impoundments inland and upland of existing ponds. Delaware Dept of Fish and Wildlife

Page 12: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Reconsider Conservation GoalsNot Just Strategies

• Goals are the why; strategies the how

• Many current goals will no longer be feasible

• Need is for “climate-informed conservation goals”– Not just “climate-change goals”– Not just changing strategies to meet current

goals

Page 13: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

•Traditional goals

•Revised strategies*

Climate Retrofit

Aligning Climate-Informed Goals and Strategies

•Traditional goals

•Traditional strategies

Business as Usual

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

•Revised goals*

•Revised strategies*

Climate-Smart

from the Start

* Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments.

Page 14: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Integrate with Existing WorkNot Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans

Page 15: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle

Page 16: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability

• Understanding vulnerability is key to designing effective adaptation– What ‘s vulnerable and why

• Components of vulnerability– Sensitivity – Exposure– Adaptive Capacity

Page 17: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Using Vulnerability to Inform Management Options

Source: Dawson et al. 2011

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Evaluating Possible ActionsKey Characteristics of Climate Smart Conservation

• Actions linked to climate impacts

• Forward looking goals• Broader landscape

context• Robust in an uncertain

future• Agile and informed

management

• Minimizes carbon footprint

• Climate influence on project success

• Safeguards people and wildlife

• Avoids maladaptation

Page 19: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

The “New” Success in Conservation?

“the capacity for self-renewal”-- Aldo Leopold

Page 20: The future  ain’t  what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Summing Up

• Act with intentionality• Manage for change,

not just persistence• Reconsider goals, not

just strategies• Integrate adaptation

into existing work