The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some...
Transcript of The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some...
![Page 1: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The FTPL: some skeptical remarks
Harald Uhlig1
1University of ChicagoDepartment of Economics
April 1st, 2016
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 1 / 17
![Page 2: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 2 / 17
![Page 3: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Five questions to FTPL advocates1 What does FTPL want to be?
◮ A theory that can be consistent with the data? OK◮ An equation needed to complete a system? OK◮ A theoretical or extreme possibility? OK◮ A set of predictions, which occasionally work in exotic
circumstances (“Brazil”)? PERHAPS◮ A set of predictions, which help often (“Taylor coeff < 1”)? ?◮ A useful framework for practitioners? ?◮ The miracle cure for the failures of other inflation theories? ?◮ A framework for the key interplay of fiscal and monetary policy? ?
2 Where is the “smoking gun”? What set of facts “scream” FTPL?Specific predictions?
3 Why is sovereign default off the table? Sure, a central bank canaccommodate by inflating away debt ... is that all?
4 The US, Japan, the Eurozone have a near-deflation problem (isit?). Do you advocate “irresponsible” fiscal policies to solve this?
5 What advice would you give the sunspot-branch of macro?
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 3 / 17
![Page 4: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What determines the price level, Pt?
1 FTPL: Gov. budget constraint (without default)
Debtnomt
Pt= NPVreal
t (Primary fiscal surpluses)
or:(Debtnom/Y nom)t
Pt= (NPVreal/Y nom)t
2 Quantity Theory: define velocity Vt ,
MtVt = PtYt = Y nomt
3 New Keynesian Theory:
[left intentionally blank]
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 4 / 17
![Page 5: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What determines inflation, πt?1 FTPL:
πt = gDebtnom
,t− g
NPVreal,t
2 Quantity Theory:πt = gM,t − gY ,t
orVt ≡ V̄
3 New Keynesian Theory:
Phillips: πt = βEt [πt+1] + κxt + ǫpt
IS: xt = Et [xt+1]−1σ(it − Et [πt+1]− r̄ ) + ǫd
t
Taylor rule: it = r̄ + π̄ + φπ(πt − π̄) + φxxt + ǫmt
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 5 / 17
![Page 6: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Inflation in the US
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 6 / 17
![Page 7: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Inflation vs Debt Change in the US
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 7 / 17
![Page 8: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DEBT/GDP in the US
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 8 / 17
![Page 9: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Inflation in Japan
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 9 / 17
![Page 10: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
DEBT/GDP in Japan
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 10 / 17
![Page 11: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Velocity of Money (M2): US
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 11 / 17
![Page 12: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Velocity of Money (M2): Japan, US, Europe
Source: http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/10/08/chart-o-the-day-the-non-velocity-of-money/
(Joshua M Brown, “Chart o’ the Day: The (non) Velocity of Money”, Oct-8-2015)
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 12 / 17
![Page 13: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Monetary Policy Rules
M
i
(FFR)
MD MS=M
MS: i=i
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 13 / 17
![Page 14: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The US narrative for inflation
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 14 / 17
![Page 15: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
A new US narrative for inflation?
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 15 / 17
![Page 16: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Can you calculate the price level, Pt?
1 FTPL: Gov. budget constraint (without default)
Pt =Debtnom
t
NPVrealt
(1)
2 Quantity Equation: define velocity Vt ,
Pt =Mt V̄Yt
(2)
3 I would use (1), not (2).4 Ok, “calculate” does not mean “determine”. Still ...
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17
![Page 17: The FTPL: some skeptical remarks€¦ · Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 16 / 17 Conclusions of a Skeptic 1 Lots of colleagues](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042621/5f760e5a741b7f3c2e384d4c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Conclusions of a Skeptic
1 Lots of colleagues now dismiss FTPL out of hand. Perhaps, theyshouldn’t be. Scientists should remain open-minded (how long?).
2 Inflation is hard to explain. If FTPL wants to be the alternative,make it compelling.
3 Fiscal-monetary policy interaction is interesting. Much of that isoutside FTPL.
4 How to bring back dismissive colleagues? Tough. Compellingnarratives, compelling evidence and “smoking guns” may be agood start.
Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) The FTPL: some skeptical remarks April 1st, 2016 17 / 17