The feasibility of avoiding future climate impacts: key results from the AVOID1 and 2 programmes

Funded by

Jason A. Lowe, Rachel Warren, Nigel Arnell, Simon Buckle, Ajay Gambhir and the AVOID network

Further details E-mail jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk

Overview of AVOID1 and 2

Supported UK’s international engagement

Supported the setting of the UK’s carbon budgets

Informed UK’s position at international climate change negotiations

• Established in 2009 to provide tailored scientific information on feasibility, benefits and side effects of mitigation

• Synthesises information from a wide range of sources

• Considered climate science, impacts and socio-economic aspects

• AVOID2 began in 2014 to provide information along the pathway to Paris and CoP21

AVOID2 approach: Integrated assessment but not just another IAM

• What are the characteristics of potentially dangerous climate change?

• How much can mitigation reduce climate change and impacts?

• How feasible are different amounts of mitigation?

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways

The database does not provide uniform sampling of pathways

2020 emissions of 50 GtCO2eqcover a wide range of median warming

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways

We have led a post AR5 intercomparison of emission reduction feasibility:

• TIAM• WITCH• MESSAGE

+GAINS for non-CO2

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

TIAM

-Gra

ntha

m

MES

SAGE

-GLO

BIOM W

ITCH

TIAM

-Gra

ntha

m

MES

SAGE

-GLO

BIOM W

ITCH

TIAM

-Gra

ntha

m

MES

SAGE

-GLO

BIOM W

ITCH

TIAM

-Gra

ntha

m

MES

SAGE

-GLO

BIOM W

ITCH

TIAM

-Gra

ntha

m

MES

SAGE

-GLO

BIOM W

ITCH

2010 2020 2030 2050 2100

EJ/y

ear

other

offshore wind

onshore wind

solar CSP

solar PV

hydro

nuclear

biomass w/ CCS

biomass w/o CCS

Gas w/ CCS

Gas w/o CCS

coal w/ CCS

coal w/o CCS

oil w/o CCS

Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Many earth system processes are not routinely included in scenario development,

But AR5 did provide some useful information

Equilibrium climate sensitivity remains very uncertain

Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Key result 2- How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal

Most scenarios that limit warming to lower levels have large BECCs contribution

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal

Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES

Uses 5% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

Uses 4% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

Uses 18% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal

Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES

Uses 5% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

Uses 4% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

Uses 18% of land areaExcluding GL and ANT

•Achieving 166 GtC over the 21st Century appears to be highly challenging.

•The most productive areas globally are the tropics.

•Biophysical cooling associated with deforestation may have benefits to stabilising climate at low levels.

Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation?

Water availability Exposure to river floods Coastal flooding

J Roff

Crop yields Ocean acidificationCooling demand

Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation?

The AVOID 2 consortium

18/04/23