Andrew GliksonResearch School of Earth Science & School of Archaeology and Anthropology

Australian National University

"The fatal consequences of atmospheric CO2-e levels over 350 ppm“Implications for the Australian Capital Territory

Presentation to the ACT GovernmentStanding Committee on Climate Change, Environment and Water

The sensitivity of the atmosphere to greenhouse gas forcing has been underestimated.The atmosphere is tracking toward critical tipping pointsCanberra, as one of the CO2 emission-intensive cities world-wide, is in the position to sent an example, by:A. Transition to electric train and bicycle transport system, restricting/taxing access of private fossil fuel vehicles into town centresB. Encouraging solar-thermal electricity generation.C. Located at the centre of a drought-stricken region, encouraging the Federal government to invest in North-South water pipeline systems

IT IS NOT TOO EARLY TO START THINKING IN TERMS OFLOCAL FOOD PRODUCTION (VEG GARDENS, CHOOKS ETC.)

SUMMARY AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS

THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL COST OF INACTION WILL EXCEED THE COST OF ACTION BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE

A. pCO2 compilation of marine and lacustrine proxy records.

B. The climate for the same period (0 to 65 million years ago).

Zachos et al., 2008

A

B

Min. Eocene Max. Miocene

Anthropogenic 5000 GtCO2 emission

Upper estimateLower estimate

ATMO

SPHE

RIC

CO2 (

PPMV

)

δ18 O

ICE-

FREE

TEM

PERA

TURE

Age (million of years ago)

Anthropogenic 2500 GtCO2 emission

END-EOCENEFREEZE

Opening of Drake passage Isolates Antarctica from tropical warm water transport

500 ppm CO2

US $B

ILLI

ON

Pina

tubo

El C

hich

on

Agun

g

1975-76 Tipping Point

Temp

eratu

re an

omaly

o CTe

mper

ature

anom

aly o C

El N

ino

1998

NASA/GISS

La N

ina 2

007-

8

Rahmstorf et al., 2007 Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Observations

CO2 +2.0 ppm/yr

ToC+0.03oC/yr

SEA LEVEL0.35 cm/year

SEA

LEVE

L CH

ANGE

(cm

)Te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

(o C)

CO2 L

evels

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

RECENT GLOBAL WARMING

Base period: 1951 - 1980

2008 (14th warmest of 129 years) +.0.37

2007 (3rd warmest of 129 years) +0.61

2005 (4th warmest of 129 years) +0.61

End Eocene glaciation

GREEHOUSE EARTHGLACIAL/INTERGLACIAL

Mid-Pliocene

Robinson et al., 2008, Eos Vol. 89, No. 49, 2 December 2008

C anomaly relative to the present

IPCC AR4 A2 SCENARIO (+ 2 – 5oC) (2090-2099)

MID-PLIOCENE SST(+3oC at mid-latitudes)

TIPPING POINTS: GLACIAL TERMINATIONS

2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch11.pdf

TEMP

ERAT

URE

RESP

ONSE

O CPR

ECIP

ITAT

ION

RESP

ONSE

(%)

SUMMER WINTER

SUMMER MONSOONS IN E &SE AUSTRALIA;DRUGHTS IN SW AUST.

WINTER DROUGHTS OVER MOST OF AUSTRALIA

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch11.pdf

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf

A.C.T. ~13.5 ton CO2 per capita

X3.8

X1.2X1.3

X1.29 in 18 yr1.6% per year

Global 2008 1.66 ppm/yr

THE ROLE OF CARBON GASES

~500 ppm CO2

Permafrost (900 GtC)High-latitude peat lands (400GtC)Tropical peat lands (100Gt C)Vegetation subject to fire and/or deforestation (650 GtC)

LAND

Future risk: Vulnerable carbon sinks

Preliminary analyses indicate that over the next 100 years the vulnerable carbon pools can release enough carbon to cause an increase of around 200 ppm in atmospheric CO2 on top of CO2 increase from fossil fuel combustion in the order of 200-500 ppm

INTERGLACIAL ONSET-TYPERUNAWAY THRESHOLD / GATE

?

Maximum temperatures for 7 February 2009

http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-drought/

SEVEREDROUGHT

CONDITIONS

PROJECTIONS AND MIITIGATION

Emiss

ions

GtC

/year

CO2 (

ppm

)∆C

O2 (p

pm/ye

ar)

?

1950 2000 2050Hansen et al. 2008

1950 2000 2050

Global carbon emissions

Level of atmospheric CO2

Change rates of atmospheric CO2

201510

5

550500450400350

54321

Ice core data

?

alternative scenariosobservations

alternative scenarios

Hansen et al., 2008

CARBON EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS 1950 - 2008

Eocene

alternative scenarios

UNDER ESTIMATE BY TAR AND SAR PROJECTIONS

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Stabilization_Scenarios_png

REDUCE EMISSIONS BY 2020 TO BELOW 2000 LEVELS TO STABLLIZE AT 450 PPM

“STABILIZATION” AT 450 ppm CO2MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE

(RISKS FEEDBACKS)

12 GtC/yr by 2020

By 40% of 2000 level:i.e. to 2.4 GtC/year in 11 years

By 5% of 2000 level:i.e. to 5.7 GtC/year in 11 years

- 0.1 GtC/year = 1.25% Emission reduction each year

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf

N.H.

Tem

pera

ture

(°C)

0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glob

al T

empe

ratu

re (°

C)

IPCC Projectionsfor 2100 AD

Earth System moves to a new state;modern civilization collapses

Feedbacks push climate change higher;abrupt changes much more likely;massive impacts to humans

Loss of Greenland ice sheet= 6.4 metre sea level rise

Large biodiversity loss;coral reefs disappear

“Committed” Climate Change

BACK TO THE EOCENE

CO2 >550 ppm

The sensitivity of the atmosphere to greenhouse gas forcing has been underestimated.The atmosphere is tracking toward critical tipping pointsCanberra, as one of the most CO2 emission-intensive cities world-wide, is in the position to sent an example, by:A. Transition to electric train and bicycle transport system, restricting/taxing access of private fuel vehicles to town centresB. Encouraging solar-thermal electricity generation.C. Located at the centre of a drought-stricken region, encouraging the Federal government to invest in North-South water pipeline systems

SUMMARY AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS

THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL COST OF INACTION WILL EXCEED THE COST OF ACTION BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE