a -/'^

, €uFhfiL -iG.-t-,s, *TER.OFTICE CORRESPONDENCE

D^rE 8/L4'/BLREFERENCE

See Below SUBJECT

W. Glass

J. F. BlackR. W. CohenS. A. DiamondH. Shaw

Mcrey O'Loughlin has asked Ed David for EREETSviews on the realism of CPDrs projections for fossil fuel'combustion out to 2030 (attached) in view of potential,,greenhouse,' and ,,acid rain" problems. I have been askedto draft a short rePlY.

A prelirninary draft for EED's reply is attached-It is based not on any calculations but on my "under-standing" of what I think I've heard you say and write inthe pasl. I would appreciate your reviewing this pre-liminary draft very critically and letting rne know ProqPtlyof any changes you would like to see. EED vrants to get ananswer back to }IEJO'L by August 2l..-

Thank you for Your cooPeration.

WG: blAttachmentsc: T. K. Kett

.? /'. -. .'-a

DRAFTEED TO !{EJO I L

you asked about our viehrs on possible emission con-

sequences of the CPD-projected fossil fuel consumPtion levelsout to 2030. t"luch is still unknown about the sources and

sinks for atmospheric CO2, as weLl irs about the clinaticeffect of increasing co2 levels in the air, so that Prop

gnostications remain highly sPeculative. The models thatappear most credible (to us) do predict measurable changes

in temperature, rainfall Patternr 6Dd sea-level by the year

2030 for the postulated fossil. fuel combustion rates' but

changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic and pro-

bably below the magnitude that need trigger otherwise non-

economic resPonses to the problem of energy supply.

The fossil fuel contribution to the localizedproblem of acid rain aPPears handlable by liniting the re-Jease'of SO;r NOyr and chlorides to the atmosPhere--tfhich

would decrease but by no means eliminate the economic ad-

vantage of fossil fueIs.

We would be happy to discuss ttiis with you ingreater detail.

INITIAL PROJECTIONWORLD ENERGY SUPPLY

(EXCr-UDES CPE)

AVERAGE GROWTH %IYEAR

. .\.,1,'Ir

t"-zIU

5aul

ooaLUEE,mzo=JE

25A

200

150

100

TOTAL

0.214.6

'1.9

3.68.93.5L2

coNv. otLSYNTHFTICSGASCOALNUCLEAROTH ER

1 960.1 979 1 e29.20005.6

4.90.8'j'.04.04.3

awo.203q(1.s)6.3'0,71.94.8 -/1.0

1Qo/,

69NUCLEAR

COAL

240h

260/0

24o/o12o/o

GAS18"/o 17%18"/" SYNTHETICS

CONVENTIONAL OIL(vl"to li'lcL.)

201 5

{l=6tg

@

AYo

367o

17o/o

14%

1 960

lo

2000 2030