THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR MEAT AND DAIRY · 2019. 12. 11. · 500. 1,000. 1,500. 2,000....
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THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR MEAT AND DAIRY Session 8
Transcript of THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR MEAT AND DAIRY · 2019. 12. 11. · 500. 1,000. 1,500. 2,000....
THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR MEAT
AND DAIRYSession 8
Sophie HélaineUnit Analysis and Outlook,DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission
MEAT AND DAIRYOUTLOOK 2019-2030
INCREASING SUSTAINABILITYREQUIREMENTS
0
50
100
150
200EU milk production (million tonnes)
… SHAPING A SLOWDOWN IN PRODUCTION GROWTH
+0.6% per year+1.0% per year
… while New Zealand slowing down too
+2.6% per year +0.4% per year
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
EUR
/ to
nne
1 00
0 to
nnes
EU pigmeat production and price
Production Producer price
… CHANGES IN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Delocation of production stages
Efficient manure management
Reduced use of antibiotics
Grassland management
Animal nutrition
•Organic
Herd management (calving, lactation)
Free range
0
15
30
45
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
milli
on h
eads
Kg /
cow
Milk yield and number of cows
Dairy cows Suckler cows Milk yield
EFFICIENCY GAINS CAN HELP
-0.5 million suckler cows
-1.4 million dairy cows
•lower GHG
WHEN SANITARY OUTBREAKS KICK IN
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
0
4,500
9,000
13,500
18,000
22,500
27,000
EUR
/ to
nne
1 00
0 to
nnes
EU pigmeat market
Production ConsumptionExports Price
SLOWDOWN IN EXPORT GROWTH, BUT EU 1st DAIRY WORLD EXPORTER
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
2008-2019 2019-2030
EU meat exports change (million tonnes)
Beef Sheep&goat Pigmeat Poultry-5
0
5
10
2008-2019 2019-2030
EU dairy exports change (million tonnes of milk eq.)
Butter SMP WMP Whey powders Cheese FDP
TIME FOR A SLI.DO QUESTIONGo to slido.com – event code #AgriOutlook
Meat consumption in the EU reached a record in 2018 (70 kg per capita).What do you expect by 2030?1. A further increase2. A stabilisation3. A small decline (up to 1 kg)4. A bigger decline
Apparent meat consumption in retail weight
LESS MEAT AND MORE DAIRYCONSUMED IN THE EU
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008-2019 2019-2030
EU meat consumption change (kg / capita)
Beef Sheep&goat Pigmeat Poultry
-1.1 kg
+2.9 kg
-10-505
10152025
2008-2019 2019-2030
EU dairy consumption change (kg milk eq. / capita)
Liquid milk other dairy productsDairy powders other traditional dairy productsCheese
+16 kg+13 kg
FROM VOLUME TO VALUE
Ethic
Health & nutrition
Convenience & snacking
Experience
THANK YOU !#AgriOutlook
© European Union, 2019 │ © fotoVoyager, #165807391-170054274-453281653-508212549-537698055, iStockPhoto.com
THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR MEAT
AND DAIRYSession 8
