The Environmental Movement

• Rachel Carson: Silent Spring

• Effect of DDT in the food chain

Point-Source Pollution

• Early problems were obvious– point-source pollution– ... the “bad guys” were someone “else”– ... but the battles were tough– ... progress has a price

• High costs of changing/regulating industry– litigation– retooling

Government Action

• Early Progress– Earth Day 1970– EPA 1970 – Clean Air Act 1970– Clean Water Act 1972– Marine Mammals Protection Act 1972– Endangered Species Act 1973– Safe Drinking Water Act 1974

What is the Science in Environmental

Science?

ScienceSystematized knowledge derived from observation, study and experimentation carried on in order to determine the nature or principles of what is being studied

Assumptions of the Process of Science

• We perceive reality with our five basic senses

• Objective reality functions according to certain basic principles and laws

Assumptions of the Process of Science

• Causes and effects are explainable

• We have tools and capabilities to understand basic principles and natural laws

The Scientific Method

• Voted greatest scientific advancement of the last Millennium

• Based on observation and fact

• Subject to verification by other researchers

Scientific MethodObservation

Question

Hypothesis

Test (e.g. experiment)

Supports hypothesis

Contradicts hypothesis

Further questions

Which of the following are TESTABLE hypotheses?Try suggesting an experiment to test it.

Exotic species are bad

The addition of phosphorus fertilizer increases algae growth in fresh water habitats

The oil industry hurts the environment

The herbicide atrazine causes deformities in frogs

observation correlation experimentation

Tools for Science

Observation

benefits•can be simple & cheap (or high tech)• can be done in the real

world

draw backs• needs to be followed with hypothesis testing

the first step in the process of science provides the ideas to generate hypotheses

Hypothesis: provides tentative explanations, must be testable

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4

8

12

16

1.5 3.5 5.5

Lake area (m2)

Correlation (fabricated data for explanation purposes only)

Correlation

benefits• can be predictive• can establish association, (e.g. low cancer associated with high fiber diet)• can be done in real ecosystems

draw backs• does not establish causation

can be done across space e.g. survey a large number of lakes can be done across time, e.g. sample one lake for many years (special statistical considerations)

Experimentation

benefits• establishes probable causation

draw backs• usually on small scale (or very expensive)• can be artificial situation

manipulate one or few variables and measure response variable (or dependent variable)must have control and replication

Theories

• Consistent with all observations

• Has been supported by repeated testing

http://www.drscience.com/

The scientific method is carried out by people who may be:

Influenced by cultural beliefs

Advocating a position

Dishonest

Junk Science

• Selective presentation (data omitted)

• Politically motivated distortion of scientifically sound papers

• Attribution of false information to a respected researcher or organization– Wall street journal reports CDC finds

organic foods can kill you

Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future

Chapter 21The Atmosphere: Climate and

Climate Change

"climate is what you expect, weather is what you get."

Weather: day to day variation in temperature, wind, humidity, and precipitation

Climate: average temperature and precipitation expected throughout a typical year in a given region

The Atmosphere

Where weather takes place

Global warming and the greenhouse effect

Some gasses and water vapor in the atmosphere absorb and reemit solar energy, making earth warmer than it otherwise would be.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing

6 CO2 + 12 H20 C6H12O6 + 6 H20 + 6 02

Photosynthesis by plants and algae, more with light & in summer

carbondioxide

water carbohydrate water oxygen

02C02

Respiration, emission of CO2 by all life, all the time

6 CO2 + 12 H20 + ATPC6H12O6 + 6 H20carbondioxide

watercarbohydrate water energy

C02

C02

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/9r.html

Carbon cycle: numerous exchanges of C

Other Greenhouse Gases And Sources

• Water vapor• Methane• Nitrous oxide• CFC’s and other

halocarbons

• Hydrological cycle• Animal husbandry• Chemical fertilizers• Refrigerants

Atmospheric CO2 is rising

Will this cause increased temperatures?

What are some of the consequences of increased temperature?

Global Surface Temperatures

Ice core data shows strong correlation between greenhouse gasses and temperature.

Hurricanes and Climate Change

For hurricanes to occur, surface ocean temperatures must exceed 80 F. The warmer the ocean, the greater the potential for stronger storms.

Rising sea levels, also caused in part by rising global temperatures, intensify storm damage along coasts.

red indicates area of temp > 84F

Water Supply and Pollution• Lake levels expected to decline, more evaporation

• Reduced summer water levels; small streams & wetlands may dry up

• Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes

• Development and climate change will degrade the flood-absorbing capacities of wetlands and floodplains, resulting in increased erosion, flooding, and runoff polluted with nutrients, pesticides, and other toxins.

Predictions for Ohio

Agriculture• Increased atmospheric CO2 and longer growing season could boost yields of soybeans, corn, and wheat

• Severe rainstorms during planting and harvest seasons will likely depress productivity

• Higher ozone concentrations can damage soybeans and horticultural crops, countering positive impacts of a warmer climate.

• Several climate changes will likely combine to create more favorable conditions for a number of pests and pathogens.

Predictions for Ohio

Human Health.• Winter cold-related deaths will decrease, while summer heat-related death is likely to increase.

• Some waterborne infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis or or giardiasis may become more frequent or widespread if extreme rainstorms occur more often.

Predictions for Ohio

Water Supply and Pollution• Lake levels expected to decline, more evaporation

• Reduced summer water levels; small streams & wetlands may dry up

• Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes

• Development and climate change will degrade the flood-absorbing capacities of wetlands and floodplains, resulting in increased erosion, flooding, and runoff polluted with nutrients, pesticides, and other toxins.

Agriculture• Increased atmospheric CO2 andnitrogen as well as a longer growing seasoncould boost yields of some crops, such assoybeans, corn, and wheat.• Severe rainstorms and fl oods duringplanting and harvest seasons will likelydepress productivity. Similarly, hotter anddrier conditions during the main growingseason also disrupt production and mayrequire irrigation of currently rain-fed crops.• Higher ozone concentrations can damagesoybeans and horticultural crops, counteringpositive impacts of a warmer climate.• Several climate changes will likelycombine to create more favorable conditionsfor a number of pests and pathogens.• Extreme heat and droughts can severelyaffect livestock health and production.Human HealthClimate projections suggest that extremeheat periods are likely to becomemore common, as will severe storm events.• Winter cold-related morbidityor mortality will decrease, whilesummer heat-related morbidity ormortality is likely to increase. Ofparticular concern is the large projectedincrease in extreme heat days(exceeding 97°F) by 2080–2100,which will require improved warningsystems and preparation to avoidsevere health impacts.OhioFred Snyder, Ohio Sea GrantDr. George Kling (734) 647-0894 · Dr. Donald Wuebbles (217) 244-1568The full report is available from UCS at www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes or call (617) 547-5552.This fact sheet is based on the fi ndings of Confronting Climate Change in the Great LakesRegion, a report published in April 2003 by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the EcologicalSociety of America. The report was written by regional experts under the leadership of GeorgeKling (University of Michigan). The regional climate analysis was led by DonaldWuebbles (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign).• Higher temperatures and moreelectricity generation for air conditioningincrease the formation of ground-levelozone, likely exacerbating asthma andother respiratory diseases.• Some waterborne infectious diseasessuch as cryptosporidiosis or or giardiasismay become more frequent or widespreadif extreme rainstorms occur more often.• The occurrence of many infectiousdiseases is strongly seasonal, suggestingthat climate plays a role in infl uencingtransmission. Some diseases carried byinsects such as Lyme disease (ticks) or,more recently, West Nile encephalitis(mosquitoes) have expanded across theregion. While this spread is attributedlargely to land-use changes, future changesin rainfall or temperatures could encouragegreater reproduction or survival of thedisease-carrying insects.Property and InfrastructureOhio’s cities and other heavily developedareas are particularly vulnerable tothe risks of climate extremes, incurringdirect economic losses or requiring costlyadaptations.• More frequent extreme rainstormsand fl oods, exacerbated by stream channelingand more paved surfaces, resultin greater property damage, place heavierburdens on emergency management,increase cleanup and rebuilding costs,and exact a fi nancial toll on businessesand homeowners.• Municipalities in Ohio will haveto upgrade water-related infrastructureincluding levees, sewer pipes, and wastewatertreatment plants in anticipationof more frequent extreme downpours.• Lower lake levels have costly implicationsfor shipping on Lake Erie, requiringmore frequent dredging of channels andharbors and adjusting docks, water intakepipes, and other infrastructure. On theother hand, a longer ice-free season willextend the shipping season.Recreation and TourismTourism is one of Ohio’s major economicsectors, with travelers spending$23 billion in 2001. Ohio boasts an exceptionalstate park system, includingClifton Gorge, above, but it is the beautifulLake Erie shoreline that drawsmost visitors.• Anglers on Lake Erie and inlandlakes will be affected by range shifts, lossof habitat, and increases or declines oftheir preferred catch. For example, therange of warm-water fi sh such as smallmouthbass or bluegill is likely to expandnorthward, while cold-water species andeven some cool-water fi sh may disappearfrom southern parts of the region.• In all lakes, the duration of summerstratifi cation will increase, adding to therisk of oxygen depletion and formationof deep-water “dead zones” for fi sh andother organisms—a risk especially forLake Erie.• The summer recreation seasonwill likely expand as temperatures warmfurther, but extreme heat, heavy rains,elevated ozone levels, and possible increasesin risk from insect- and waterbornediseases may dampen outdoor enthusiasm.• Lower water levels coupled withwarmer water temperatures may acceleratethe accumulation of mercury andother contaminants in the aquaticfood chain.• Earlier spring runoff, moreintense fl ooding, and lower summerwater levels generally mean growingchallenges for Ohio’s wetlands, such asthe Great Black Swamp, already signifi -cantly reduced by development and agriculture.Loss of habitat or food resourcesfor migratory birds, shorebirds, andwaterfowl will affect Ohio’s birdwatchingand hunting industries.Climate Change

Predictions for Ohio

It is very difficult to prove that increased CO2 emissions cause increased temperature on Earth

List some of the risks involved in waiting for 100% proof of causation.

How much risk are you comfortable with?

Precautionary Principle

Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, the absence of scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

A closer look at anthropogenic (human) sources of greenhouse gasses

Most emissions come from developed nations

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html

Coal use emits disproportional amount of CO2

Transportation results in a lot of CO2 emissions

Tragedy of the Commons, Garrett Hardin, 1968

Benefit of new sheep Cost of new sheep

10$ (sale price for adult)

.01$ loss of productivity due to

overgrazing