The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?
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The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?Prof Ray Wills
Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies
Leader Western AustraliaBlue Australasia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Deputy Chair, and Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
@ProfRayWills
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Adoption rate of technology What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive
technologies will impact on our businesses? Natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where
changes are favoured by: consumer sentiment; policy measures and regulation; pricing advantage.
Be ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms.Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
(Niels Bohr)
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Roger’s diffusion curve
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Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
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Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
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The Big Bang Theory
NY Times
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Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
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Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
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Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
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Technology adoption rates
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Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Televisions
LaptopTabletComputer
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Electricity generation - Australia
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Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
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Potential EV growth
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Global renewables 2014 +>
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Electricity market projections – WA
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Global renewables 2014 +>
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Forecasts not based on experience
Ric Brazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data
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Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
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Declining price on solar
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Declining price on solar
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Global renewables
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Global energy – fossil and renewables
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Global energy – impact on emissions
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US energy sources changing
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Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output
estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity
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Solar in Western Australian towns
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Solar and the utility duck
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Solving energy poverty
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Evolving markets
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Global renewables 2014 +>
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Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.
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@ProfRayWills
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The cost of electricity stacks up
WA Price Stack (Western Power)
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VoteCompass Sep 2013 pre Australia Federal Election – 1.4 million responses
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Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive
Rapid change - mobility
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Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux
light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless
battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen
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Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus
- diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle
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Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1st biofuel flight (BTW - 1st USAF 30 Oct 07) (Also BTW 14 Feb 11 - QANTAS) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces
Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel
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Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…
Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
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Green cities consuming less energy
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne City of Townsville City of Fremantle
Local government critical Nimble government Community demand
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Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development
of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity
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