The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime:...

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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CRIME: EVIDENCE FROM PRISON INMATES, ARRESTS, AND SELF-REPORTS Lance Lochner Enrico Moretti Working Paper 8605 http://www.nber.org/papers/w8605 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2001 We are grateful to Daron Acemoglu and Josh Angrist for their data on compulsory attendance laws and useful suggestions. We thank Mark Bils, Elizabeth Caucutt, Janet Currie, Gordon Dahl, Stan Engerman, Jeff Grogger, David Levine, Jens Ludwig, Darren Lubotsky, Marco Manacorda, David Mustard, Steve Rivkin, Edward Vytlacil and seminar participants at Columbia University, NBER Summer Institute, Econometric Society, University of Rochester, UCLA, and University of British Columbia for their helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2001 by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.

Transcript of The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime:...

Page 1: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CRIME:EVIDENCE FROM PRISON INMATES, ARRESTS, AND SELF-REPORTS

Lance LochnerEnrico Moretti

Working Paper 8605http://www.nber.org/papers/w8605

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138November 2001

We are grateful to Daron Acemoglu and Josh Angrist for their data on compulsory attendance laws anduseful suggestions. We thank Mark Bils, Elizabeth Caucutt, Janet Currie, Gordon Dahl, Stan Engerman, JeffGrogger, David Levine, Jens Ludwig, Darren Lubotsky, Marco Manacorda, David Mustard, Steve Rivkin,Edward Vytlacil and seminar participants at Columbia University, NBER Summer Institute, EconometricSociety, University of Rochester, UCLA, and University of British Columbia for their helpful comments.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau ofEconomic Research.

© 2001 by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed twoparagraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is givento the source.

Page 2: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates,Arrests, and Self-ReportsLance Lochner and Enrico MorettiNBER Working Paper No. 8605November 2001JEL No. K4, I2

ABSTRACT

We estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accountingfor endogeneity of schooling. We begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarcerationusing Census data. Instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance lawsas an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for bothblacks and whites. When estimating the impact of high school graduation only, OLS and IV estimatorsestimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability ofincarceration. We clarify the relationship between OLS and IV estimates and show that the "weights"placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates. Overall, theestimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about .76percentage points for whites and 3.4 percentage points for blacks. We corroborate these findings usingFBI data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes. The biggest impacts of graduationare associated with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft. We also examine the effect of drop out onself-reported crime in the NLSY and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused bychanges in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarcerationconditional on crime. We estimate that the externality of education is about 14-26% of the private returnto schooling, suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form ofexternalities from crime reduction.

Lance Lochner Enrico MorettiDepartment of Economics Department of EconomicsUniversity of Rochester UCLA Rochester, NY 14627 Los Angeles, CA 90095and NBER

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Page 4: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

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Page 5: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

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Page 14: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

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Page 30: The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison ... · The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti

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