The Economics of Scholarly Communications

Michael JubbDirector

Research Information Network

UKSG ConferenceTorquay

30-31 March 2009

Two ReportsScope

The whole research communications cycle, including cash and non-cash costs (essentially time)

RIN/CEPAJournals Global

JISC/HoughtonJournals, books, reports, conference papers, data (?)Focus on UK

Models available for others to use to test assumptions, feed in other data etc

RIN/CEPA big picture: overall costs of the current system,

global115.8

6.4 2.1

16.4

33.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Researchproduction

Publishing &Distribution

Access provision User search andprint cost

Reading

£ B

illi

on

s

RIN/CEPA big picture: overall costs of the current system,

UK6.23

0.430.07

0.54

1.34

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Researchproduction

Publishing &Distribution

Access provision User search andprint cost

Reading

£ B

illi

on

s

JISC/Houghton big picture: overall costs of the current

system, UK

4.95

2.78

0.85 0.07

23.20

1.53

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

15.00

18.00

21.00

24.00

27.00

Research production Publishing &Distribution

Access provision User search and printcost

Reading

£ B

illi

on

s

RIN/CEPA publishing and distribution costs, global

1.89 1.80

3.70

0.97 0.96 0.82

6.40

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Non-cashpeer

rev iew

Direct fixedcost

First copycost

Variablecost

Indirectcost

Surplus Total cost

£ B

illi

on

s

RIN/CEPA publishing and distribution costs, UK

125.1 119.0

63.7 63.0 54.1

424.9

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

Non-cash peerreview

Direct f ixedcost

Variable cost Indirect cost Surplus Total cost

£ M

illi

on

s

JISC/Houghton publishing and distribution costs, UK

39.7

239.5163.1

334.4

70.6

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

peer-review editorial work publishing and distribution

£ M

illio

ns

How are these costs being met?

publishing and distributionsee next slide

accesscosts met by libraries and those who fund them

search, download and readingcosts met by researchers and those who employ them

29%

53%

11%

2%3%2%

Peer-review (non cash cost) Academic subscriptions

Other subscriptions Author-side payment

Advertising Membership fees & individual subscriptions

Meeting the costs of publication and distribution,

globally (RIN/CEPA)estimates for the system as a wholedifferences for different types/categories of journal

UK contribution to meeting publishing and distribution

costs (RIN/CEPA)

132.0

32.88.6

117.5

45.6 56.0

16.0

408.5

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

academic (non-cash) peer

review

other (non-cash) peer

review

author pays academicsubscriptions

othersubscriptionsand revenues

academiclibrary access

provisionfunding

special accessprovisionfunding

Total cost

£ M

illi

on

s

UK contribution to meeting publishing and distribution

costs (JISC/Houghton)

140.8

22.3

61.0113.0

71.3

418.0

9.6

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

academic (non-cash) peer review

other (non-cash)peer review

academicsubscriptions

academic libraryaccess provision

funding

Total cost

£ M

illio

ns

So what?RIN role to question how efficient and effective are the information services and resources provided for and used by the UK research communityClearer picture of where major costs arise, and how they are funded, enables us to

focus attention on key areas where cost efficiencies are most likely to arise (eg peer review??)analyse the balance of trade between different sectors and different countries (eg UK or EU contribution)develop scenarios of possible changes, and model their impacts both on costs and on how/where those costs are met

Three scenarios

change over next ten yearstransition to e-onlytransition to author-side payment

purpose is to model possible changes in

costsfunding flowsbenefits

changes all expressed in £s; but distinguish between

cash costs opportunity costsimpact and return on investment

Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years:

costs

Publishing and distribution costs Real terms increase of £1.6bn (25%)

1.9 1.8

3.7

1.0 1.0 0.8

6.4

0.5 0.5

1.0

0.5 0.3 0.2

1.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Non-cashpeer review

Direct fixedcost

First copycost

Variable cost Indirect cost Surplus Total cost

£ B

illi

ons

Current funding Difference between scenarios

1.9

3.4

0.70.1 0.2 0.1

6.4

0.53

0.82

0.17

0.03 0.05 0.03

1.63

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Researchfunders (peerreview noncash cost)

Academicsubscriptions

Othersubscriptions

Author-sidepayment

Advertising Membershipfees &

individualsubscriptions

Total cost

£ B

illio

ns

Current Funding Difference between scenarios

Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years:

funding

Sources of funding and other contributions

0

-318

-758

93

0

-983

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Researchproduction

Publishing &Distribution

Accessprovision

User searchand print cost

Reading Total cost

£ M

illion

s

Difference between scenarios

E-only journal publication, global

~£1bn cost savings, split between

publishing/distribu-tion (~5% reduction)access provision (~36% reduction)

E-only journal publication, UK

Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles

cost savings to publishers of between £21m (RIN) and £45m (JISC) 7-13% of publishing costsassume some of those savings passed on to UK (and overseas) libraries and other subscribers

Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles

cost savings of between £23m (RIN) and £34m (JISC)33-48% of access costsoffset by small rise in user print costsVAT increase c £5m

Open access publishing, global

0.1

3245.5

-8.2 -5.5-591.9-2912.6 -272.6

-4000.0

-3000.0

-2000.0

-1000.0

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

Researchfunders (peer

review noncash cost)

Academicsubscriptions

Othersubscriptions

Author-sidepayment

Advertising Membershipfees &

individualsubscriptions

Total cost

£ M

illio

ns

Open access publishing, UK: costs

Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles

further cost savings to publishers of between £18m (RIN) and £93m (JISC) 6-28% of publishing costsassume some of those savings passed on UK (and overseas) research authors and funders

Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles

further cost savings of between £9m (RIN) and £11m (JISC)13-16% of access costs

Open access publishing, UK: funding

savings for UK libraries of c £120moffset by increases for HEIs and other research institutions of between £213m (RIN) and £172m (JISC) in publication feesdifferentials between institutionstransition costs

Current costs for UK journal publishing, distribution, access, search/download and reading

427.6

71.9

542.2

1342.3

2383.9

568.1

71.3

850.0

1806.6

3296.0

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

Publishing anddistribution

Access Search and print Reading Total

£ M

illio

ns RIN/CEPA

JISC

E-only

403.9

45.9

542.2

1342.3

2334.3

523.1

37.3

850.0

1806.6

3217.0

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

Publishing anddistribution

Access Search and print Reading Total

£ Milli

ons RIN/CEPA

JISC

E-only and Author-Side Payment for Open Access

385.9

36.0

542.2

1342.3

2306.4

475.1

26.3

850.0

1806.6

3158.0

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

Publishing anddistribution

Access Search and print Reading Total

£ M

illio

ns RIN/CEPA

JISC

Summary cost changes for the UK

Some key messagesPublishing, distributing and providing access to serials are pivotal, but only part of the scholarly communications system

c5% of the overall costs

Much larger costs incurred by readers in search, download and readingCosts (cash and time) are met overwhelmingly by the HE sectorRisk that costs will continue to rise in real termsScope for cash savings, and for improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, across the system

and they are not just, or mainly in publication, distribution and access

Thank you

Michael JubbResearch Information Network

www.rin.ac.uk

Activities, costs and income flows report available at http://www.rin.ac.uk/costs-funding-flows

model at http://www.rin.ac.uk/rin-model/

Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models report available at

http://www.jisc.ac.uk/publications/publications/economicpublishingmodelsfinalreport.aspx

model at http://www.cfses.com/EI-ASPM/SCLCM-V7/