The Economic Cost of Inactivity in Europe

Vicky Pryce, CEBRMOVE CongressNovember 6,2015

Proportion of jobs in the EU-28 nations, by occupational

category, 1995-2014

Up by 43 million

Down by 7 million

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%1

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Less active occupations

More active occupations

Source: EU Labour Force Survey, Cebr analysis

How much activity is sufficient?

Source: WHO

The WHO recommends that adults aged 18 or over should undertake, either:

• 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity (equivalent to around 20 minutes per day); or

• 75 minutes per week of vigorous-intensity activity; or

• an equivalent combination of moderate and vigorous activity.

For children and adolescents aged 5-17, the guidelines are more demanding:

• At least 60 minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic physicalactivity

The health benefits which activity delivers

Source: WHO (2006)

Condition Effect

Heart disease Reduced risk

Stroke Reduced risk

Overweight and obesity Reduced risk

Type II diabetes Reduced risk

Colon cancer Reduced risk

Breast cancer Reduced risk

Musculoskeletal health Improvement

Falls in older people Reduced risk

Psychological wellbeing Improvement

Depression Reduced risk

Leading risk factors for global mortality, 2004

Source: WHO (2009)

2,0

2,2

2,3

2,4

2,6

2,8

3,2

3,4

5,1

7,5

0 2 4 6 8

Indoor smoke from solid fuels

Childhood underweight

Alcohol use

Unsafe sex

High Cholesterol

Overweight and obesity

PHYSICAL INACTIVITY

High blood glucose

Tobacco use

High blood pressure

Millions of global deaths

Economic costs of inactivity

• Why economic costs?

• Direct costs of treatment and healthcare

• These are resources expended in the treatment of inactivity-related disease

• Indirect costs resulting from reduced length and quality of life

• This represents forgone output from premature morbidity and mortality

• Includes the indirect costs of inactivity-related mental health disorders

• Value of statistical life (VSL) not included

Proportion of insufficiently active adults, 2010

14%

19% 19%

22%

27% 28%

32%

24% 24%

29%30%

34%

38%

42%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Poland Germany France EU-28 Spain Italy UK

Males Females

Source: WHO 2010, Cebr analysis. Data are age-standardised

Proportion of insufficiently active children, EU-28

Source: HBSC via Currie et al., (2008, 2012), Cebr analysis

77%

82%

86%

78%

83%

87%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

Age 11 Age 13 Age 15

2005-06

2009-10

Regularity of exercise or sport participation, 2013, EU-28

Source: Eurobarometer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Regularly With some regularity Seldom Never

Retired

Homemakers

Unemployed

Manual workers

Self-employed

Other white collar workers

Managers

Physical activity improves wellbeing

Source: Global Corporate Challenge. Values represent average change in self-reported well-being indices, for individuals who completed GCC programme (relative to same respondent’s scores prior to

GCC).

-11,9%

-8,0%

0,4%

6,1%

8,1%

9,2%

9,9%

13,9%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Stress at home

Stress at work

Work relationships

Organisation morale

Vigour

Productivity

Overall health

Sleep quality

Average impacts on self-reported wellbeing indicators following participation in Global Corporate Challenge (n=33,612)

Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in EU-28,

2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

23,5 23,1

13,9

11,4

8,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coronary heartdisease

Mood and anxietydisorders

Type II diabetes Colorectal cancer Breast cancer

€b

illio

ns

Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in focus

nations, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

1,0 1,2 1,6 1,9 1,72,0

5,6

8,3

10,6

12,3 12,8

2,2

6,6

9,5

12,1

14,2 14,5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Poland Spain France Italy UnitedKingdom

Germany

€b

illio

ns

DirectIndirectTotal

Inactivity costs as a proportion of annual healthcare

expenditure, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

4,0%4,8%

6,2%6,9%

8,3% 8,4% 8,9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

France Germany EU-28 Spain UnitedKingdom

Poland Italy

Economic cost savings from reducing inactivity in six

focus countries, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

109

331473

607712 726

217

661

947

1.214

1.423 1.452

435

1.322

1.894

2.429

2.846 2.905

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Poland Spain France Italy UnitedKingdom

Germany

€m

illio

ns

5% 10% 20%