The Demographic Dip - Stackpole & Associates...2010/04/14 · The “marketing metaphor” The...
Transcript of The Demographic Dip - Stackpole & Associates...2010/04/14 · The “marketing metaphor” The...
The
Demographic
Dip:
“Birth Dearth” The Challenge of
Occupancies
presented by
Irving L. Stackpole
Copyright © 2014 by
Stackpole & Associates, Inc
The Challenge of Occupancy
Quantity of Demand
Quality of Demand
Supply – aging & contracting • No new supply
Hyper-competitive markets • Frontline
Responding to a declining market
Defend, protect & fortify
• Manage to Loyalty
Increase Productivity / Efficiency
Innovate
Differentiate
• Survival? Marketing & Sales
Responding to a Declining Market
Matching Supply & Demand
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“There are 7 ways to
defeat. The first of these
is the failure to count.”
Supply & Demand = Occupancy
Occupancy rates (SNF) = excess
capacity
SNF beds
Occupancy declining – in all
categories
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Occupancy Data
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Overview
Supply-Demand = Occupancy
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Currently ~ 87%
In its study of falling inpatient admissions, Milliman estimated that, in all markets
of the United States, the rate of inpatient admission per 1,000 population would
decline through 2021. This would be true whether, in a specific market, care
could be defined as “loosely,” “moderately,” or “well” managed. The chart above
shows the 10-year trend line. (Chart was published by Health Affairs
What’s the problem?
Why are occupancies
declining?
Is “Marketing” that bad?
Is “Sales” that bad?
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2014
Born 1927
87 yoa
2022
Born 1935
87 yoa
2017
Born 1930
87 yoa
Where is the demand?
Demand for Arthroplasty
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209 253
384
572 450 663
1520
3481
40.8 47.8
67.6 96.7 38.3 55.3 121
268
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Nu
mber
of
pati
en
ts (x
1,0
00
)
Year
Primary total hiparthroplasty
Primary total kneearthroplasty
Revision total hiparthroplasty
Revision total kneearthroplasty
We are Here
Est. GAIN ~300,000
Care for Persons w/ Dementias
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Medicare/Medicaid Costs per year (billions of dollars)
Inflection Point
We are Here
The “mood” of the market?
Employment & Income…
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Comparing Recessions
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Culture… Negativity
Sector NOT thought of as the valuable
resource it is …
They are seen as prisons – awful places
– The “F” word
– “Don’t want to put / place mom in a nursing
home.”
– “I’d rather be dead.”
Deep metaphor of negativity
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Reducing Objections
The “marketing metaphor”
The current dominant position of the sector
The words and metaphors
Change the metaphor – change the “listening”
Verbal content
Visual content
Channels
– Putting it all together
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Do these words “work”?
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Responding to a declining market
Defend, protect & fortify
• Manage to Loyalty
Increase Productivity / Efficiency
Innovate
Differentiate
Current position
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Protect / Defend –Loyalty
– Customer v. Consumer
Is this consistent with what we are “saying”?
Service Error Recovery
– Identify the errors
– Apologize
– Offer solution
– Do what you said you would
– Remind
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Responding to a declining market
Purchase decision cycle – Time?
Pull through
– Case Managers
– Consumers
– Doctors
Outputs for Inputs
– Productivity ≠ Staff Reductions
Productivity
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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies
– Plan Ahead
Disease burden = Opportunity
MCOs / DMCs / ACOs
– Match Strengths w/ Pain
– Seek – Younger / Larger / Underserved
– Doctors
Productivity
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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies
Ways to be fast
– Technology &
– Decision Cycle Transformation
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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies
Ways to be better
Hospitals
– Resident & Family satisfaction data
– Clinical outcomes
– Speak their language
– Partner with your pharmacy & rehab
providers
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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies
KNOW your Staff
RESEARCH
Employees
– Key to reducing costs / increasing outputs
– Are we getting more staff?
– Staff produce “patient / family experience”
– Staff produce Quality & Value
Facts of Life
The age qualified market is shrinking
Younger markets are not large enough
Continued pressure on payments
Continued pressure on utilization
MARKETING - most important
organizational function for the next 5+
years
Responding – “Maintenance”
Facilitate Access (faster, easier)
Fortify, Protect & Defend
• Loyalty = Error Recovery
Productivity & Efficiency
• (≥ output, ≤ labor)
Innovation & Differentiation
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Call or email Irving Stackpole
+1-617-739-5900, Ext. 11
www.StackpoleAssociates.com
Stackpole & Associates, Inc.
Bibliography
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Albrecht K. and Zemke, R. Service America. New York: Warner Books, Inc. 1985
Bruner II, G.C. , James, K.E., and Hansel, P.J. Marketing Scales Handbook: A
compilation of multi-item measures, volume iii. Chicago: American Marketing
Association. 2001
Chase, R & Dasu, S. Want to perfect your company’s services?: Use behavioral
science. Harvard Business Review June, 2001.
Cialdini, R. Influence: The psychology of persuasion. New York: Quill. 1993
Johnson, M & Gustafsson, A. Improving customer satisfaction, loyalty and profit: An
integrated measurement and management system. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
2000
Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry. A conceptual model of service quality and its
implications for future research. Journal of Marketing. 1985 Fall:41-50.
Bibliography
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Reichheld, F The Loyalty Effect: The hidden forces behind growth, profits, and lasting
value. Boston: Harvard University Press. 1996
Stackpole. I. & Ziemba, E. Make Your Marketing P-P-P-P-Perfect, Care Management
Matters, April 2008
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the minds of consumers. Boston, Harvard Business Press 2008
Ziemba, E. Email Campaigns that Work. Care Management Matters, April, 2009
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