The Delaware Estuary Climate Ready Pilot

Danielle KreegerScience Director

Priscilla ColeScience & Policy Fellow

Climate Change in a Complex Landscape

Upper Watershed: “pristine” recreational area water supply for NYC

Tidal River: 4th largest US urban centerworld’s largest freshwater

port70% of east coast oilMajor industry buildup

Lower Estuary:Water fowl, finfish, shellfishHorseshoe crab population

DK 2

13,611 square miles

1. Likely Physical Changes

2. Example Effects on Resources

Temp

Salinity Sea Level Rise

Marshes Bivalves

Storms

Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary

DK 3

Drinking Water

Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary

Natural Resource PatternsDisruption – species or community effects

Disconnects – de-coupled ecological interactions

Thresholds – non-linear responses

Synergisms – climate effects + other changes

DK 4

Example: Species Range Shifts

DK 5

Disruptions

Opportunistic Invasive Species

DK 6

Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network

Decoupling of Horseshoe Crab Spawning

and Shorebird Migration

Disconnects (Hypothetical Example)

Smooth Response

Eco

syst

em R

espo

nse

Extent of Climate Change

Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte

Thresholds (Non-linear Responses)

Tolerance Limits

Breached

Unlikely

Extent of Climate Change

Eco

syst

em R

espo

nse

Abrupt Response

Threshold

Likely

DK 8

Non-linear tipping points in ecosystem status

Once breached, ”recovery” may be slow or unlikely

Sta

te i

nd

icat

or

Driver

Threshold Point NoReturn

Status 1

Status 2

path

Knowing where these tipping points are will be extremely valuable to set policy targets (Climate-driven Thresholds)

Pressure

Ecological Thresholds

(Climate change)

Slide from Carlos Duarte

DK 9

Synergisms – Climate & Other Changes Together

“… The interaction between climate change and habitat loss might be disastrous. During climate change, the habitat threshold occurs sooner. Similarly, species suffer more from climate change in a fragmented habitat.”

DK 10

Hot Topics

•DredgingDredging

•Ecological Ecological FlowsFlows

•WithdrawalsWithdrawals

•LNG LNG TerminalTerminal

•Horseshoe Crabs, Red KnotsHorseshoe Crabs, Red Knots

•Inundation, Inundation, SLRSLR

•Emerging PollutantsEmerging Pollutants

•Spills, NRDASpills, NRDA

•Land Use Land Use ChangeChange

DK 11

Complexity = ChallengesDK 12

Lesson: “Restore” for the Future• Forecast future sustainable states• Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation

DK 13

• Shifts in policy and management paradigms likely to be needed

Goal – perform a vulnerability assessment and draft adaptation plan for one or more case studies

Tasks Vulnerability Assessment - Inventory threats to natural resources

Valuation - Assess natural goods and services that are at risk

Identify Options – List response scenarios, early warning monitoring needs

Prioritize – Rank options to safeguard or enhance resources at risk

Recommendations - Provide managers and policy-makers guidance on how to achieve greatest natural resource outcomes

Next Steps – Identify future needs such as high priority data gaps, strategies for other resources, cross-linking via ecosystem models

PDE Climate Ready Pilot

DK 14Ambitious

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Case Studies

Drinking Water

DK 15

PDE Climate Ready Approach

Vulnerability Assessment

Natural Capital Valuation

Management & Adaptation Options

Drinking Water Tidal Wetlands Bivalve Shellfish

Managementand Policy

ClimateWorkgroup

Case Study Subgroups

Priorit

izatio

n

AdaptationPlan

Outreach, Education, Messaging

Adaptive

Adaptation

DK 16

DK 16

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Wetland Sub-groupVelinsky & Kreeger

Shellfish Sub-groupKraeuter & Kreeger

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Work Groups

Drinking Water Sub-groupConnolly

Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG)STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger

Natural Capital TeamCole

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

Millions of Liters

Processed

1 2 4 6 8 10 15 30

$

Predications & Modeling TeamNajjar

DK 17

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Wetland Sub-groupVelinsky & Kreeger

Shellfish Sub-groupKraeuter & Kreeger

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Work Groups

Drinking Water Sub-groupConnolly

Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG)STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger

Natural Capital TeamCole

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

Millions of Liters

Processed

1 2 4 6 8 10 15 30

$

Predications & Modeling TeamNajjar

DK 18

Climate model results for the watershed of the Delaware Estuary

Raymond NajjarDepartment of Meteorology

The Pennsylvania State UniversityMay 2009

DK 19

21st Century Climate Projections

Projections shown as changes with respect to 1980-1999 for three future time periods:

• 2011-2030 (early century)• 2046-2065 (mid century) • 2080-2099 (late century)

B1 (lower emissions) and A2 (higher emissions) scenarios are shown.

Changes shown using box-and-whisker plots, which present 14-model maximum, minimum, median, 25th percentile, and 75th percentile.

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distributionDK 20

Temperature More warming in summer

than winter

Scenario differences minor until late century B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Tem

pera

ture

Change

o C

Annual Temperature Change

B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-990

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Tem

pera

ture

Change

o C

Winter Temperature Change

B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-990

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Tem

pera

ture

Change

o C

Summer Temperature Change

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution

Annual

SummerWinter

DK 21

Precipitation Annual precipitation increase

Greater increase and agreement among models in winter than summer

Less agreement among models for precipitation than temperature

B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pre

cip

itation C

hange %

Annual Precipitation Change

B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pre

cip

itation C

hange %

Summer Precipitation Change

B1 11-30 A2 11-30 B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pre

cip

itation C

hange %

Winter Precipitation Change

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution

Annual

SummerWinter

DK 22

Annual frost days and growing season length changes

Warmer spring and fall means fewer frost days and longer growing seasons

B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

# o

f F

rost

Days C

hange

B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-990

10

20

30

40

50

60

Gro

win

g S

eason L

ength

Change (

days)

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distributionDK 23

Growing Season

Frost Days

Heat Waves

All models project increases in heat waves

Large spread among models

B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-990

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

# o

f C

onsecutive D

ays w

ith T

max >

80

o F C

hange

Baseline = 13 days

B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-990

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

# o

f C

onsecutive D

ays w

ith T

max >

90

o F C

hange

Baseline = 1.6 days

B1 46-65 A2 46-65 B1 80-99 A2 80-99

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

# o

f C

onsecutive D

ays w

ith T

max >

100

o F C

hange

Baseline = 0.1 days

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution DK 24

Consec. Days >100oF

Days >80oF Days >90oF

Summary of climate projections (Najjar)

Early-century results independent of emissions scenario - climate change is unavoidable

All models warm

Precipitation projected to increase, particularly in winter and spring

Extreme precipitation and extreme heat are projected to increase

R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distributionDK 25

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Case Studies

Drinking Water

DK 26

Tidal Wetlands

DK 27

Tidal Wetlands

A Signature Trait of System

•Near Contiguous Band•Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes

Brackish MarshesSalt Marshes

Ecological Values:Structural

biodiversityhabitat for fish and

wildlifenurseries for imperiled

taxaFunctional

food webwater qualityflood protection

Rutgers University DK 28

Estuarine / Marsh Coastal EcosystemTidal Freshwater Marsh

Salt Marsh

River

Ocean

Estuary

Slide from Nat Weston, Villanova

DegradatiDegradationon

DK

Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DESummer, 2006

Slide from Chris Bason (Center for Inland Bays, DE)

Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh BrowningBrowning

Freshwater Tidal Wetland Acreage

Estimated

< 5% remains

DK 32

Tidal Wetlands

Concerns:DegradationConversion &

Loss

Sea level rise

Canary Creek Marsh, DE

1992

2006

DK 33

Courtesy J. Gebert, ACOE

Courtesy D. Bushek, Rutgers

ShorelineErosion

DK 34

DK 35

Satellite Data – Kearney and Riter

1993

2006

Percent vegetation

DK 36

Satellite Data – Kearney and Riter1993

2006

Percent vegetation near Philadelphia airport

DK 37

Tidal Wetlands

Ecological Values:

Structuralhabitat

Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection

Storms

Concerns:DegradationConversion &

LossSea Level Rise

DK 38

Living Shorelines 2008

Tidal Wetlands

Concerns:Degradation Conversion and

LossSea Level RiseStormsSediment budget

DK 39

Tidal Wetlands Adaptation PlanningGoal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency

Tough Choices• Where will wetlands will be converted to open water?• Where can we save them ?• Where is strategic retreat the best option?

DK 40

Slide adapted from Michael Craghan, Rutgers

Tidal marshes need to move:

1) horizontally (landward)

and/or

2) vertically (to keep pace)

Can they do it?

Where?

DK 41

Projecting the Fate of Tidal Wetlands and Their Ecosystem Services Using SLAMM Modeling - Industrial Economics

Areas for Model Improvement

• Erosion/Accretion Rates

• Better Vegetation Classifications

• Marsh Drowning Mechanisms

2000 2100

DK 43

Wetland Monitoring & Assessment

1º Service 2º Service 3º Service 4º Service

Provisioning

FoodFisheries Support  

Algae and invertebrate production  Genetic Materials Phragmites control research  Biochemical Products Research in Antifungal Agents  Fiber and Fuel Cellulose stock  

Regulating

Sequestration Carbon Carbon Caps, mitigation

Sediment StabilizationErosion control,

Meet TMDLs for sediment

Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection

Protect Property Values and infrastructure  

Gas RegulationCarbon Sequestration  Oxygen production  

Water Quality Sequestration, Filtering TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants

Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being

Recreation Bird watching, hunting, boating  Spiritual and Inspirational Native American Uses  

EducationalUniversity reasearch & school projects/trips  

Aesthetic ValueLandscape pictures, paintings, open space  

Supporting

Habitat Wildlife, shellfish, insects  Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities  Production Primary Production  Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime    Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

Maintain trophic cycles, soil building  

Wetland Ecosystem Services

Climate Adaptation Planning

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Status

Tidal Wetland Sub-group

• Subgroup Formed• Initiating Vulnerability Assessment• Draft by September

Late Fall

Winter

DK 45

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Case Studies

Drinking Water

DK 46

Bivalves of the Delaware

DRBC

Crassostrea virginica

Elliptio complanata

Geukensia demissa

11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels

Mya arenaria

Rangia cuneata

Corbicula fluminea

Mytilus edulis

Ensis directus

Mercenaria mercenaria

DK 47

www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg From DRBC

Oyster Disease, Salinity & Climate Change

From Rutgers HSRL

Salt Line Location

Rutgers: “A small increase in salinity over the seed beds may push the oysters past a point of no return”

DK 48

Oyster ManagementCan they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7

Year

Num

ber

per

Bus

hel

Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat

1758 Longer Growing Season

Intertidal Niche Expansion?

To

day

2030

2060

Point of No Return

No HelpWith Help

2 Recruitment Events

Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

DK 49

Oyster Reef Revitalization

DK 50

Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PAALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled

ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated ? Threatened Vulnerable

ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled

ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated ?

ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure

LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable

LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled

LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled

LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated ?

LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled

MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled

PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable

STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure

State Conservation Status

Patchy, Impaired

Extirpated

Rare

Lower Delaware Lower Delaware WatershedWatershed

Elliptio complanata Strophitus undulatus Alasmidonta heterodon

DK 52

CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project

Ecosystem Engineers

DK 53

StartStart

8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels

Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech

Clean Clean Water Water

DK 54

LaterLater8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels

Biofiltration PotentialBiofiltration Potential

Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 55

Delaware Bay Oysters

Crassostrea virginica

Brandywine River, PA

Geukensia demissa

Delaware Estuary Marshes

Elliptio complanata

Brandywine River, PA

DK 56

Water Processing Potential

DK 57

OystersMarsh

MusselsFW

MusselsCrassostrea

virginicaGeukensia demissa

Elliptio complanata

Commercial Dockside Product + Secondary Value    

Ecological

Structural Habitat

biological hot spots, bottom-binding

Prey Biofiltration top-down grazing, TSS removal, light)

Biogeochemistry enrichment/turnover, benthic production

Shoreline Protection - nearshore reefs    

Shoreline Stabilization - living edges  

Cultural-Historical

Waterman Lifestyle, Ecotourism    

Native American - jewelry, dietary staple  

Bioindicator

Watershed Indicators hallmark resource status/trends

Site-specific Bioassessment NS&T, caged sentinels

ConservationBiodiversity fw mussels most critically impaired biota    

Nat

ura

l C

apit

al V

alu

eImportance of Shellfish to the Importance of Shellfish to the Delaware Estuary WatershedDelaware Estuary Watershed

DK 58

Climate Adaptation Planning

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Status

• Initiated Vulnerability Assessment• Draft by September

Late Fall

Winter

DK 59

Shellfish Sub-group

Underway

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Case Studies

Drinking Water

DK 60

Climate Change Will Bring: Resultant Effects These Effects will Impact Water Systems Through:

increased precipitation (rainfall expected to increase mainly in the Northern and Eastern parts of the country)

increased river discharge and stream flow  1 2 6

increased runoff   1 2 6

increased groundwater levels   1 2 6

extreme flooding  1 2 4 6 10

changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover  1 6

decreased precipitation (rainfall expected to decrease mainly in the Southwest, but could be short-term periods in the East)

decreased river discharge and stream flow  3 6 7 9

decreased groundwater levels  3 6 7 9

increased frequency of short-term drought  3 6 8 9

increased number and intensity of wild fires  1 6 9 10

changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover  1 6

increased frequency and magnitude of storms

lightening and electrical disturbances  5 10

storm surge  1 2 4 5 6 8 9 10

warmer water temperatures

disruptions to aquatic ecosystems (including wetlands)  6 7 8

sea level rise  1 4 5 6 7 8

thawing permafrost, reduced ice cover and snow pack, and reduction in freezing season

flooding  1 2 4 6 10

sea level rise  1 4 5 6 7 8

decreased river discharge and stream flow (spring and summer)

  3 6 7 9changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover

  1 6

Leading to Issues with the Drinking Water Supply:1 erosion of infrastructure2 overflowing reservoir capacity3 decreased supply in reservoirs

4 flooding of treatment plants and pump stations

5 inoperable treatment plants

6

degraded water quality of source water and finished water (turbidity, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, taste and odor compounds, dbp formation etc.)

7 upward salt line movement

8saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers and freshwater habitats

9 increased demand for supply

10power outages and issues with customer supply

Warmer Temperatures &Weather Fluctuations

Drinking Water Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Climate Adaptation Planning

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Status

Underway

Late Fall

Winter

DK 62

Drinking Water Sub-groupConnolly

Underway

Climate Adaptation Planning

Tidal Wetland Sub-groupVelinsky & Kreeger

Shellfish Sub-groupKraeuter & Kreeger

ID Vulnerabilities

EcologicalValuation

Adaptation Options

Recommendations and Reporting

Work Groups

Drinking Water Sub-groupConnolly

Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG)STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger

Natural Capital TeamCole

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

Millions of Liters

Processed

1 2 4 6 8 10 15 30

$

Predications & Modeling TeamNajjar

DK 63

Which Approach to Use? Which Approach to Use? Classical Economic Tools?Classical Economic Tools?

1 Service 2 Service 3 Service

Provisioning

Food Fisheries Support

  Algae and invertebrate production

Fresh Water

Genetic Materials

Fiber and Fuel

Biochemical products

Regulating

Nutrient SequestrationSediment Stabilization

Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation

Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration  Oxygen production

Flood ProtectionWaste Water Treatment

Water Quality Water clarity, N, P

Water Supply

Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being

Recreation Bird huntingSpiritual and Inspirational

Educational

Aesthetic Value

Supporting

Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain FaunaBiodiversity Maintain Plant Communities

Production Primary Production

Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime

Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

Which Approach to Use? HEA?Which Approach to Use? HEA?1 Service 2 Service 3 Service

Provisioning

Food Fisheries Support

  Algae and invertebrate production

Fresh Water

Genetic Materials

Fiber and Fuel

Biochemical products

Regulating

Nutrient SequestrationSediment Stabilization

Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation

Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration  Oxygen production

Flood ProtectionWaste Water Treatment

Water Quality Water clarity, N, P

Water Supply

Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being

Recreation Bird huntingSpiritual and InspirationalEducational

Aesthetic Value

Supporting

Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain FaunaBiodiversity Maintain Plant Communities

Production Primary Production

Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime

Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

InVEST ToolInVEST Tool1 Service 2 Service 3 Service

Provisioning

Food Fisheries Support

  Algae and invertebrate production

Fresh Water

Genetic Materials

Fiber and Fuel

Biochemical products

Regulating

Nutrient SequestrationSediment Stabilization

Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation

Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration  Oxygen production

Flood ProtectionWaste Water Treatment

Water Quality Water clarity, N, P

Water Supply

Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being

Recreation Bird huntingSpiritual and InspirationalEducational

Aesthetic Value

Supporting

Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain FaunaBiodiversity Maintain Plant Communities

Production Primary Production

Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime

Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

- End -