The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking...

14
Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report The Daft.ie House Price Report An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market 2014 Q1

Transcript of The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking...

Page 1: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report

The Daft.ie House Price ReportAn analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market

2014 Q1

Page 2: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

IntroductionRonan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD

2 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1 Continued on next page >

Housing market expectations are starting to heat up

Ronan Lyons is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, where his areas of research include urban economics and housing markets. He is also Economist with Daft.

Dublin still dominates developments in the housing market. This latest Daft.ie House Price Report shows that annual inflation in Dublin list prices rose to 15% in early 2014, compared to a rise of just 0.5% 12 months previously. The rate of inflation is also accelerating – the average list price in the capital rose by 5.7% in the first three months of 2014, equivalent to the entire increase between July and December last year.

But it would be wrong to assume that house prices are still in decline throughout the rest of the country. While the year-on-year change outside Dublin remains negative, at -3.3%, this 12-month figure hides an increase between January and March of 2.3%. This quarter-on-quarter rise in list prices is the first one since mid-2007, ending a run of 26 straight quarters of falling values outside the capital.

The end of price falls around the country is unsurprising when taken together with the figures on supply. The total stock of properties sitting on the market fell from 54,000 in March 2012 to 43,000 in March 2013 and to 33,000 in March 2014. To put the last two years into perspective, between early 2008 and early 2012, that figure had been stuck persistently above 50,000.

What makes the last twelve months different to the year to March 2013 is which parts of the country are contributing to the fall in stock. Munster, Connacht & Ulster (outside the cities) made up just over 40% of the fall in stock in the year to March 2013. In contrast, these three provinces have made up almost 60% of the fall in most recent twelve months.

Annual change in property listings, from start 2012

2012 II III IV 2013 II III IV 2014

-30%

-20%

-10%

-0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin

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3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

IntroductionRonan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD

Housing market expectations are starting to heat up

This does not, however, mean that conditions in Dublin are easing. Quite the opposite, as it happens. There are currently fewer than 2,300 properties listed in the capital, the lowest since June 2006. Currently, less than 800 Dublin houses are coming on the market each month on average or 10,000 homes over the course of a year. In a city of roughly half a million households, this translates to just 2% for sale – a healthy market would see at least three times this amount coming on to the market each year and perhaps as much as six times.

Unsurprisingly, the market in the capital is incredibly tight, with roughly 1,000 transactions a month in the second half of 2013 – well above new supply. One glimmer of hope for hard-pressed first-time buyers is the increase in fresh, mostly second-hand, supply that has emerged particularly in Dublin in the last nine months. The figure shows the annual change in property listings, for Dublin and for the rest of the country, from the start of 2012.

The total number of properties listed in Dublin rose from 6,900 in the year to March 2013 to 9,200 during the most recent 12 months. Hopefully a positive side-effect of rapidly rising prices will be to bring extra second-hand supply on to the market. As mentioned above, the Dublin market may need as many as 30,000 listings a year to meet the various sources of demand – first-time buyers, trader-uppers and trader-downers.

There does appear to be one side-effect already evident from the rapidly rising prices in Dublin. Starting in this report, a quarterly survey of housing market expectations will be included along with the other market metrics. The survey for this report, carried out in March 2014 with over 1,000 respondents, shows that expectations about future house price movements – which are key in driving demand – have become more optimistic in recent months.

In late 2012, the typical Dublin respondent expected prices to fall 4% over the coming 12 months. By late 2013, that had changed to an increase of 4% and by March the expected increase in house prices over the coming year had risen to 6%. Elsewhere, expectations have nudged upwards, from a fall of 1% in late 2013 to an expected rise of 1% in March 2014.

While one-year expectations influence the decision to buy now or wait, five-year expectations are probably a better reflection of how realistic – or indeed worried – those active in the housing market are. Currently, those in Dublin expect prices to be about 20% higher in five years than now, while those elsewhere expect a rise of 10%. The Dublin figure in particular is at the bounds of healthy increases – if the expected price increase rises even further over coming quarters, those who have been crying “bubble” since prices turned in the capital may have justification.

Ultimately, expectations may be the spark but credit is the fuel. Currently, the survey indicates that people are looking to buy a house worth about four times their income (4.5 in Dublin). This is in line with prudential lending. But currently, no regulation exists in relation to lending standards. An obvious step for the Financial Regulator would be to introduce a minimum deposit (i.e. a maximum loan-to-value). Experiences from other countries suggest that this simple tool can work wonders in stemming demand that is fuelled by expectations about prices rising in the future.

With more than half of all respondents worried about a lack of properties available, however, the supply of houses should be as much a concern for policymakers as the supply of credit.

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Year-on-year change in asking prices, Q1 2014

4 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

€182,095 | Change: 2.9%

€131,366 | Change: -2.2%Galway€131,219 | Change: -4.3%

Sligo€116,634 | Change: -7.9%

€90,930 | Change: -7.0%

€126,398 | Change: -9.6%

€108,644 | Change: -8.8%

€112,868 | Change: -1.5%

Kerry€147,048 | Change: -5.2%

€134,569 | Change: -5.0%

Cork€154,164 | Change: -4.5%

Waterford

Meath€168,825 | Change: 0.4%

Cork City€170,335 | Change: 1.6%

Laois€85,131 | Change: -8.8%

O�aly€123,189 | Change: -4.3%

Limerick€139,785 | Change: -8.8%

Kilkenny€140,726 | Change: -1.8%

Waterford City€108,910 | Change: -0.8%

Galway City€164,637 | Change: 3.1%

Mayo€119,641 | Change: -5.4%

Donegal€113,585 | Change: -10.1%

Roscommon€91,838 | Change: -10.0%

Limerick City€128,793 | Change: -5.7%

Clare€130,006 | Change: -8.9%

Wicklow€229,856 | Change: 1.9%

Louth€157,350 | Change: 1.3%

Dublin City Centre€213,179 | Change: 15.1%

West Dublin County€187,493 | Change: 15.5%

North Dublin CountyDublinClose-up

€222,740 | Change: 9.4%

South Dublin County€408,881 | Change: 18.5%

North Dublin City€245,606 | Change: 12.9%

South Dublin City€272,427 | Change: 14.3%

Wexford€129,107 | Change: -3.0%

Carlow€119,029 | Change: -8.8%

Kildare

Westmeath

Leitrim

Monaghan

Cavan

Longford

Tipperary

€153,898 | Change: -5.6%

Page 5: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers’ expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.

Daft.ie Asking Price Index

3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter of 2013, the largest quarterly rise since mid-2006. The average asking price nationwide is now €177,000, compared to €171,000 a year ago and €380,000 at the peak.

5 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

Dublin asking prices rise 5.7% in early 2014 The average asking price in Dublin rose for the seventh successive quarter, with the rise January-March 2014 the largest since mid-2006.

Outside Dublin, prices register first quarterly rise since 2007In the rest of the country, asking prices rose by 2.3% on average between January and March, the first quarterly rise since mid-2007.

Stock on the market down to lowest level in seven yearsThe total number of properties on the market is now just over 33,000, down from a peak of 62,000 in mid-2009 and similar to the stock on the market in April 2007.

Half of properties find a buyer in four months The proportion of properties sold or sale agreed within four months nationwide has increase from 39% in early 2013 to 51% in early 2014.

Stock of properties on Daft.ie(start of month) and flow of properties, 2007-2014

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS) ■ Out�ow (RHS)

Asking Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

183.7

198.6

196.5

201.8

204.1

205.3

207.6

208.7

212.1

212.9

211.2

213.4

2007

212.7

214.6

212.9

213.5

214.8

214.2

214.4

213.1

211.3

210.6

208.9

209.7

2008

209.0

208.1

205.6

204.2

202.1

199.3

197.6

194.8

193.1

189.5

183.5

182.3

2009

180.2

176.6

172.8

171.4

167.9

164.6

162.4

158.5

156.5

154.2

150.5

148.6

2010

149.3

148.0

144.7

144.4

142.7

139.9

136.7

136.6

135.2

132.2

129.2

128.4

2011

127.2

127.1

124.5

121.4

119.9

115.8

115.4

113.6

113.5

108.3

106.0

105.4

2012

105.3

104.2

102.4

101.8

102.3

99.6

98.0

99.0

97.1

98.4

96.0

95.9

2013

97.3

96.8

97.2

96.7

97.2

97.7

96.3

96.9

96.6

97.4

96.9

96.5

2014

99.4

98.7

103.3

Page 6: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

The Daft.ie Price Register Index is based on prices for residential properties recorded on propertypriceregister.ie, for which matches were found in the daft.ie archives. Because these are entered with a lag by solicitors, figures for previous quarters are subject to revision. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, type, or size.

Daft.ie Transaction Price Index

12.0%According to an analysis of Property Price Register records in late March, the average transaction price in early 2014 was 12.0% higher than a year previously. The average price nationwide between January and March was €160,000.

6 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

Transaction Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2010

151.8

145.5

145.0

146.2

137.9

142.6

139.1

138.1

133.6

130.2

134.4

133.9

2011

132.0

127.8

120.9

122.0

117.0

115.8

119.6

114.0

111.9

108.0

108.4

108.3

2012

100.0

99.9

102.5

102.3

98.3

97.4

101.8

99.5

101.7

98.0

98.0

100.6

2013

92.8

94.3

95.3

97.9

98.1

100.1

101.1

101.5

100.2

103.5

104.3

106.5

2014

102.6

101.0

112.9

Number of transactions recorded on the Price Register, 2010-2014Source: propertypriceregister.ie

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Q42013

Q12014

Q32013

Q22013

Q12013

Q42012

Q32012

Q22012

Q12012

Q42011

Q32011

Q22011

Q12011

Q42010

Q32010

Q22010

Q12010

Dublin transactions prices up 20% for second successive quarterThe annual rate of change in Dublin transaction prices stood at 20% in early 2014, the second successive quarter such a high rate was recorded.

Prices outside Dublin now rising Following a rise in three of the last four quarters, the annual rate of change in transaction prices outside Dublin stood at +7% in early 2014, compared to -9% a year previously.

Late 2013 sees largest number of transactions yet There were just under 9,400 transactions recorded in late 2013, a number which surpasses the previous high in late 2012, when Mortgage Interest Relief was being phased out.

Page 7: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

7 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

■ National ■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin

■ National ■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin

■ National ■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q1

% stating that excess/shortage of properties will drive house prices

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q1

% stating that property prices re�ect good value

2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q1

Expected change in property prices over coming 12 months (%)

Daft.ie Sentiment Survey

Each quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results

Buyers believe Dublin market does not represent value The fraction who believe that house prices represent good value has fallen dramatically in Dublin, from 42% in late 2013 to just 28% in March 2014.

Perception that prices will be stable outside Dublin While Dublin residents believe prices will rise by 6% over the next 12 months, people elsewhere believe prices will be largely stable.

Growing agreement housing supply is dominant issueWhereas just one in three respondents believed housing supply was a key driver of prices in 2011 or 2012, the fraction now is two thirds - and 74% in Dublin.

Page 8: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

What can I ask for? Can I afford it?Average asking prices across Ireland (€000s), and annual change (%), 2014 Q1

8 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

DublinDublin City Centre

North Dublin City

South Dublin City

North Co. Dublin

South Co. Dublin

West Dublin

Cork City

Galway City

Limerick City

Waterford City

Meath

Kildare

Wicklow

Louth

Laois

Westmeath

O�aly

Longford

Carlow

Kilkenny

Wexford

Waterford county

Kerry

Cork county

Clare

Limerick county

Tipperary

Galway county

Mayo

Roscommon

Sligo

Leitrim

Donegal

Cavan

Monaghan

Other Cities

Leinster

Connaught

Ulster

€133

€117

€133

€102

€183

€87

€78

€71

€59

€49

€59

€66

€83

€54

€30

€46

€45

€41

€42

€49

€44

€52

€49

€53

€44

€46

€46

€46

€45

€34

€46

€35

€42

€39

€45

14.1%

11.0%

12.5%

7.6%

16.8%

13.4%

4.1%

5.6%

-3.3%

1.8%

-2.2%

0.2%

-0.8%

-1.3%

-11.2%

-4.7%

-6.7%

-4.1%

-11.2%

-4.4%

-5.6%

-15.8%

-15.4%

-14.9%

-18.8%

-18.6%

-15.4%

-17.7%

-18.3%

-22.5%

-20.3%

-19.6%

-22.5%

-21.5%

-22.2%

1-bedapartment

€198

€174

€198

€151

€273

€129

€96

€87

€72

€60

€79

€89

€111

€73

€40

€62

€60

€56

€57

€66

€59

€67

€64

€68

€56

€59

€59

€53

€52

€39

€52

€40

€48

€44

€52

12.7%

9.6%

11.2%

6.4%

15.4%

12.0%

3.1%

4.6%

-4.3%

0.8%

-1.7%

0.8%

-0.2%

-0.7%

-10.7%

-4.2%

-6.2%

-3.5%

-10.7%

-3.8%

-5.0%

-7.9%

-7.4%

-6.9%

-11.1%

-11.0%

-7.4%

-8.5%

-9.1%

-13.8%

-11.4%

-10.6%

-13.8%

-12.7%

-13.5%

2-bedterraced

€294

€259

€294

€225

€405

€191

€154

€140

€116

€98

€108

€122

€152

€99

€55

€84

€82

€76

€78

€90

€81

€96

€92

€98

€81

€85

€86

€76

€75

€56

€75

€58

€69

€64

€75

15.3%

12.1%

13.7%

8.8%

18.0%

14.6%

6.1%

7.7%

-1.4%

3.8%

-0.8%

1.7%

0.7%

0.2%

-9.9%

-3.3%

-5.4%

-2.7%

-9.9%

-3.0%

-4.2%

-7.5%

-7.0%

-6.4%

-10.7%

-10.6%

-7.0%

-12.0%

-12.6%

-17.1%

-14.7%

-14.0%

-17.0%

-16.1%

-16.8%

3-bedsemi-d

€461

€406

€461

€353

€636

€301

€267

€242

€200

€169

€229

€258

€321

€210

€116

€178

€174

€161

€164

€191

€172

€199

€190

€202

€168

€175

€177

€159

€156

€116

€157

€120

€144

€132

€156

12.1%

9.0%

10.5%

5.7%

14.7%

11.4%

10.1%

11.7%

2.3%

7.7%

2.8%

5.4%

4.3%

3.8%

-6.6%

0.2%

-1.9%

0.9%

-6.6%

0.6%

-0.7%

-4.7%

-4.3%

-3.7%

-8.1%

-7.9%

-4.3%

-2.2%

-2.9%

-7.8%

-5.3%

-4.5%

-7.8%

-6.7%

-7.5%

4-bedbungalow

€590

€519

€590

€452

€814

€384

€317

€288

€238

€200

€286

€323

€402

€263

€145

€223

€217

€201

€205

€238

€215

€218

€209

€222

€184

€193

€194

€176

€173

€128

€173

€133

€159

€147

€173

12.0%

8.9%

10.4%

5.6%

14.6%

11.3%

-4.5%

-3.2%

-11.3%

-6.6%

2.6%

5.2%

4.2%

3.7%

-6.8%

0.0%

-2.1%

0.7%

-6.7%

0.4%

-0.8%

-10.2%

-9.7%

-9.2%

-13.3%

-13.2%

-9.7%

-4.7%

-5.4%

-10.2%

-7.7%

-7.0%

-10.2%

-9.2%

-9.9%

5-beddetached

Munster

Page 9: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

North County DublinAverage price: €222,740 Year on year change: 9.4% From trough: 9.4%

Dublin City CentreAverage price: €213,179 Year on year change: 15.1% From trough: 19.2%

North Dublin CityAverage price: €245,606 Year on year change: 12.9% From trough: 14.7%

South Dublin CityAverage price: €272,427 Year on year change: 14.3% From trough: 18.1%South County Dublin

Average price: €408,881Year on year change: 18.5% From trough: 27.3%

West County DublinAverage price: €187,493Year on year change: 15.5% From trough: 15.5%

9 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

Dublin TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Dublin residential sales market

■ Dublin City Centre ■ North Dublin City ■ South Dublin City ■ North County Dublin ■ South County Dublin ■ West County Dublin

€100,000

€200,000

€300,000

€400,000

€500,000

€600,000

€700,000

€800,000

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2014

2006 III 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2014

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2014

2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS) ■ Out�ow (RHS)

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

% o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths

n Asking prices rose more sharply in Dublin in early 2014 than at any point since mid-2006, with increases of up to 7% in three months.

n Values are now between 15% and 20% than two years ago in most parts of Dublin - and almost 30% higher in South County Dublin.

n The stock of properties for sale in the capital was below 2,300 in March, the lowest since the start of the series in 2007.

n Half of all properties listed in the capital find a buyer within two months, up from roughly one third, a year ago.

Page 10: The Daft.ie House Price Report - c1.dmstatic.com€¦ · Daft.ie Asking Price Index 3.7% Asking prices rose by 3.7% during the first quarter of 2014, compared to the final quarter

10 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

KildareAverage price: €182,095Year on year change: 2.9% From peak: -54.0%

CarlowAverage price: €119,029Year on year change: -8.8%From peak: -56.4%

LouthAverage price: €157,350Year on year change: 1.3% From peak: -58.8%

MeathAverage price: €168,825Year on year change: 0.4% From peak: -57.0%

WicklowYear on year change: €229,856Year on year change: 1.9%From peak: -53.0%

WexfordAverage price: €129,107Year on year change: -3.0%From peak: -60.2%

LongfordAverage price: €112,868Year on year change: -1.5%From peak: -60.1%

WestmeathAverage price: €131,366Year on year change: -2.2%From peak: -58.3%

O�alyAverage price: €123,189Year on year change: -4.3%From peak: -58.4%

LaoisAverage price: €85,131Year on year change: -8.8% From peak: -65.1%

KilkennyAverage price: €140,726Year on year change: -1.8%From peak: -56.2%

Leinster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

■ Dublin Commuter Counties ■ West Leinster ■ South-East Leinster

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2014

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2014

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS) ■ Out�ow (RHS)

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

€450,000

€500,000

€50,000

2006 III 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2014

% o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

20%

40%

60%

0%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths

n In the first three months of 2014, asking prices rose in Leinster - the second quarter in a row where prices rose.

n Dublin's commuter counties saw a year-on-year rise in asking prices for the first time since mid-2007 - elsewhere in the province, they are lower than a year ago.

n The stock of properties available for sale in Leinster in March was below 8,000, for the first time since early 2007.

n The fraction of properties selling within four months in Leinster increased from 37% in early 2013 to 58% in early 2014.

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11 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

TipperaryAverage price: €134,569Year on year change: -5.0%From peak: -51.6%

Limerick CityAverage price: €128,793Year on year change: -5.7%From peak: -51.5%

Waterford CountyAverage price: €153,898Year on year change: -5.6%From peak: -55.7%

ClareAverage price: €130,006Year on year change: -8.9%From peak: -58.0%

Limerick CountyAverage price: €139,785Year on year change: -8.8%From peak: -50.9%

KerryAverage price: €147,048Year on year change: -5.2%From peak: -52.4%

Cork CountyAverage price: €154,164Year on year change: -4.5%From peak: -57.1%

Cork CityAverage price: €170,335Year on year change: 1.6%From peak: -54.6%

Waterford CityAverage price: €108,910Year on year change: -0.8%From peak: -61.1%

Munster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2014

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2014

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2014

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS) ■ Out�ow (RHS)

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

0%

15%

25%

35%

45%

% o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

0

2000

12000

14000

16000

18000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0

20000

■ Cork City ■ Limerick City ■ Waterford City ■ Rest-of-Munster

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths

2006 III 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

n Asking prices rose throughout Munster in the first three months of 2014, particularly in urban areas.

n Compared a year ago, prices are still between 5% and 10% lower in many parts of the province.

n The total number of properties for sale in Munster stood at just over 10,000 in March, compared to over 15,000 two years ago.

n The fraction of properties selling within four months in the province was 40% in early 2014, slightly above the same period last year.

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12 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

LeitrimAverage price: €90,930 Year on year change: -7.0%From peak: -63.8%

CavanAverage price: €108,644 Year on year change: -8.8%From peak: -62.5%

MonaghanAverage price: €126,398Year on year change: -9.6%From peak: -60.6%

RoscommonAverage price: €91,838Year on year change: -10.0%From peak: -63.4%

MayoAverage price: €119,641 Year on year change: -5.4%From peak: -54.7%

DonegalAverage price: €113,585 Year on year change: -10.1%From peak: -57.8%

Galway City

GalwayAverage price: €131,219Year on year change: -4.3%From peak: -59.4%

SligoAverage price: €116,634Year on year change: -7.9%From peak: -58.9%

Galway CityAverage price: €164,637 Year on year change: 3.1%From peak: -56.5%

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2014

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2006-2014

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2014

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS) ■ Out�ow (RHS)

0%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

5%

10%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

■ Galway County ■ Connacht ■ Ulster

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths

2006 III 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014

Connacht & Ulster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

n Asking prices rose in almost all parts of Connacht and Ulster in the first three months of 2014.

n Compared a year ago, prices are close to 10% lower in counties such as Roscommon, Donegal and Monaghan.

n The total number of properties for sale in Connacht & Ulster stood at 10,000 in March, compared to 16,000 two years ago.

n The fraction of properties selling within four months in the region increased from 31% in 2013 to 37% in early 2014.

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About the Report

Over the last 10 years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. In 2011 alone, over 100,000 properties for sale were advertised on the site.

About the ReportThe goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market.

This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issued next month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market.

The Daft Report is now almost seven years old and has become the definitive barometer of the Irish residential property market. It is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, and by financial analysts at home and abroad, as well as by the general public.

Methodology and Sample SizeThe statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties and only coefficients with a very high degree of statistical significance (p < 0.001) are used.

The average quarterly sample size for sales over the period 2006-2011 was over 34,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2007 used as the base. A working paper on the methodologies employed in both rental and sales markets will be published on the Daft.ie website soon.

Stock and flow statistics are calculated using consistent series for the period covered.

About Daft.ie Daft.ie is Ireland’s largest property website. The latest audited report from ABC (Sep 2011) shows monthly traffic of 130 million page impressions (pages of information received) and 1.976 million unique users per month across Daft Media’s property websites (daft.ie, rent.ie, let.ie, property.ie). This makes Daft.ie the biggest property website in Ireland across all demographics.

13 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q1

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DisclaimerThe Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.

CreditsEconomic Analysis: Ronan Lyons Layout and Design: Ciara Mulvany Data Compilation: Paul Conroy Marketing: Kieran Harte

All data is Copyright © Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may only be reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact Daft.ie on 01-4218700 for further information.

Coming Next…

The Daft.ie Rental Report 2014 Q1, in May 2014 The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in May and will include a review of the performance of Ireland’s rental market in 2014 Q1, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland’s rental market.