THE COST OF APARTMENT BUILDING DEFECTS · Equity Economics and Development Partners Pty. Ltd. Based...

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THECOSTOFAPARTMENTBUILDINGDEFECTS

Summary

AsAustralia’spopulationcontinues togrow,moreandmoreofusarechoosing to

live in apartments. Large high-rise apartment towers are going up in our inner

citiesandouterurbancenters,providingnewplaces to liveandcallhome. While

newapartmentconstructionhasslowedfromitspeakin2015-16,itcontinuestobe

animportantsourceofeconomicactivity,employmentandresidentialconstruction

(1). Almost fifty per cent of new residential dwellings are apartments. The total

valueofnewapartmentcommencementin2018-19was$31.7billion,14percentof

thebuildingandconstructionsector(1).

There has been a staggering increase in new apartment buildings, with new unit

startstreblingfrom38,400during2008/09to117,500in2015-16(1).Morethan

double the number of apartments were built in this decade compared to the

previousdecade.

Therearenowconcerns,asaresultofmultiplehigh-profilebuildingfailures,suchas

OpalTower atOlympicPark in Sydney, and revelations thatmanybuildings have

combustible cladding about the quality of these apartments. These concerns are

supportedbytwostudiesofdefectsinapartmentbuildingsthatfoundthatinexcess

of 70%of apartmentbuildings inVictoria,NewSouthWales andQueenslandhad

defects.

Thepurposeofthispaperistoestimatethetotalcostslikelytoresultfrombuilding

defects in apartmentsbuilt in the last tenyears.Todo thisEquityEconomicshas

reliedonpubliclyavailableinformation,usedconservativecostingsand,wheredata

waslimited,appliedarangetoreflectthehighlevelofuncertainty.


Basedonouranalysis,weestimatethecosttobuildingownersandState,Territory

and Federal Governments of addressing the structural and safety defects in these

buildingswillapproximate$6.2billion($5.2-$7.2billion).Thisisaconservative

estimate that excludes several potential costs including: legal costs; jurisdiction

widebuildingauditschemes;andincreasesininsurance.Inaddition,itexcludesthe

cost of defects for apartments built before 2009. The confidence interval around

thisestimatereflectsthatthescaleofdefects isnotknownandmustbeestimated

using the availabledata. Our analysis highlights that the cost toAustraliawill be

substantial.

The following sections provide a discussion of themodeling results, a sensitivity

analysisandtherationaleforthemodellinginputs.

ModellingResults

WeestimatethatbuildingdefectsinAustralianapartmentsbuiltinthelasttenyears

willultimatelycostapproximate$6.2billion($5.2-$7.2billion).Mostofthesecosts

resultfromapartmentsbuiltinNewSouthWales,VictoriaandQueensland.Figure1

breaksdownthecentralcostestimateforbuildingdefectsbystateandterritory.

Figure1:Estimatedcostperstateandterritoryofresidentialapartmentbuildingdefects–centralestimate


Note:Tasmaniahasbeenexcludedduetolowlevelsofapartmentbuildingactivity.

While this cost is substantial, it has been developed using a conservative

methodologyandexcludesseveralcosts,including:

- Thefullrangeofbuildingdefectsassufficientinformationwasonlyavailableto

credibly calculated the costs of combustible cladding, water leaks, fire safety

defectsandstructuraldefects.

- Increasesininsurancepremiumsforbuildingsurveyors,buildersandapartment

- owners.Forexample,itisreportedthattheinsurancepremiumsoftheowners

ofAnsteySquareincreasedfrom$29,000to$134,000followingthediscoveryof

combustiblecladdingandtheirexcessincreasedfrom$1,000to$100,000.(2)

- State prescribed building audits such as the ones being undertaken in several

statestoassesstheextentofcombustiblecladding.

- Legalexpenses.

- Alternativeaccommodationcostswhenapartmentsorbuildingsaretemporarily

orpermanentlyuninhabitable.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

NSW VIC QLD SA WA NT ACT

$million

Combustiblecladding Waterleaks Firesafetydefects Structuraldefects


In addition, the cost model has been rigorously sensitivity tested ensure the

estimateisrobust.

Sensitivitytesting

Thereareseveralassumptionsinthisanalysisthat,giventheuncertainnatureofthe

issue being considered, may vary either side of the central estimate used. It is

therefore important to sensitivity test these assumptions. Key assumptions that

havesensitivitytestsduetouncertaintyare:

- Costofthedefectsperapartment.

- Numberofapartmentsperbuildingwithcombustiblecladding.

As Table 1 and 2 below demonstrate, even when the low estimates for these

assumptionsareapplied, theoverall costof rectifyingdefects in theseapartments

theminimumcostexceeds$3.5billionineachinstance.

Table1:Sensitivitytest–numberofapartmentsperbuildingwithcombustiblecladding

Low Medium High

Numberofapartmentsperbuilding 34 49 64

Estimate(million) $5,015 $6,199 $7,383

Table2:Sensitivitytest–costofdefectrectificationperapartment

Costperdefectperapartment Low Central High

Combustiblecladding

Substantiallyeffected $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

Moderatelyeffected $2,500 $8,750 $15,000

Waterleaks Substantiallyeffected $15,000 $25,000 $35,000



Firesafetydefect Substantiallyeffected $4,000 $9,000 $14,000

Structuraldefect

Substantiallyeffects $45,000 $60,000 $75,000


Estimate(million) $3,868 $6,199 $8,529

MonteCarloSimulation

In addition to varying individual assumptions, aMonteCarlo simulationhas been

conducted.MonteCarlosimulationmakesitpossibletovarymultipleassumptions

simultaneously and explore the effect of their potential interactions on the final

estimateofcost.Itinvolvesperforming20,000simulationsofthecostmodelusing

valuesfortheassumptionsthathavebeenrandomlyselectedfromadefinedrange

anddistribution.Thisapproachmakesitpossibletoimprovetherobustnessofthe

costingestimate.

Table3,below,liststheassumptionsvariedduringtheMonteCarlosimulation.All

assumptionsweresubjecttoatruncatednormaldistribution.

Table3:AssumptionsthatwerevariedduringtheMonteCarlosimulation

Assumption Minimum Mostlikely Maximum

Cost of combustible claddingrectification per apartment –substantiallyeffectedbuilding

$30,000 $40,000 $50,000

Cost of combustible claddingrectification per apartment –moderatelyeffectedbuilding

$2,500 $8,750 $15,000

Number of apartments percombustiblecladdingeffectedbuilding 34 49 64

Cost of water leak rectification per $15,000 $25,000 $35,000


apartment – substantially effectedbuilding

Cost of water leak rectification perapartment – modestly effectedbuilding

$2,500 $5,000 $7,500

Cost of fire safety defect –substantiallyeffectedbuilding $4,000 $9,000 $14,000

Costofstructuraldefect–substantiallyeffectedbuilding $45,000 $60,000 $75,000

Cost of structural defect – modestlyeffectedbuilding $2,500 $5,000 $7,500

TheMonteCarlosimulationfoundthatthecostattributabletoresidentialapartment

defects ranged from$4.2 to$8.6billion,witha90%probability that the truecost

wasbetween$5.2and$7.2billion.

Figure 2 illustrates the results of the Monte Carlo Simulation and highlights the

robustnatureofthecentralestimate.


Reasonableness

Based on other publicly available information on costs, our estimate appears

reasonableandsensible.Forexample:

- Geoff Hanmer, adjunct lecturer at UNSW, is quoted as estimating the cost of

defectiveapartmentswillcost$10billion.Thebasisforthisestimate,however,

hasnotbeenprovided.(3)

- StrataCommunityAssociationNSW$1billion toaddresscombustiblecladding

in New SouthWales. This is consistent with our central estimate of costs for

NSW.(4)

- The Victorian Government has committed $600 million to fund rectification

works for buildings at extreme and high risk from combustible cladding.(5).

Figure2:MonteCarlosimulationofcostofapartmentbuildingdefectsforapartmentsbuiltbetween2009and2018

050

010

0015

00

Freq

uenc

y

mean5%. 5%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000Total cost (millions)


This isanaverageof$1.2millionpereffectedbuilding.Ourcentralestimate is

higher – approximately $1.7 million per building – for extreme and high risk

buildings,however,$1.2millionperbuildingestimateiswellwithintherangeof

valuesconsidered.

Modelinginput

Forecasting the costofbuildingdefects in residential apartmentbuildingsbuilt in

Australiainthelast10yearsreliesonseveralassumptionsbecauseatthisstageitis

notknown:

- Howmanyapartmentsareeffected

- Whatthedefectsare

- Howmuchwillitcosttorectifythem

- Howwilldemandforrectificationworkswillaffectthecostofthework

Ascanofnewsreportsonbuildingfailuresprovidessomeillustrationontheextent

oftheproblem.SeeTable4,below.

Table4:Reportedapartmentbuildingdefectcosts

StateorTerritory Nameofbuilding Typeofdefect Costper

dwelling Source

NSW

MascotTowers Structural $75,000 (6)

TheQuay Cladding $45,000 (7)

GarlandLoftsStructuralandfiresafetyEvacuated

$165,000 (8)

45BowmanStreet,Pymont Cladding $35,000 (9)


LandmarkbuildingCharlestown Defectslevy $17,000 (10)

VIC

Lacrosse Claddingledtofire $50,000 (11,12)

SouthYarraapartmentblock Cladding $55,000 (13)

Brunswickapartmentblock Waterdamage $41,000 (14)

Neo200 Claddingledtofire$2700(claddingreplacement)

(15)

StKildaapartmentblock Waterdamage $72,000 (16)

AnsteySquare,Brunswick Cladding $19,000 (2)

ACT ElarainBruce Structuralandwaterdamage $158,000 (17)

Inordertoforecastthecostofbuildingdefectsinresidentialapartmentsbuiltover

the last ten yearswe estimated the cost of rectifying combustible cladding,water

leaks,firesafetydefectsandstructuraldefectsnationwide.

Costofcombustiblecladding

Thecostofcombustiblecladdingwasestimatedusingthefollowingformula:

numberbuildingseffectedxnumberofapartmentsperbuildingxcostperapartment

Howeachoftheseinputshasbeenestimatedisoutlinedbelow.


Numberofeffectedbuildings

In Victoria the Victorian Building Authority is leading an audit of residential

buildingsthreestoriesandhighertoidentifywhichoneshavecombustiblecladding.

It has thus far identified more than 1000 private residential buildings with

combustiblecladding.(18)Thesebuildingshavebeencategorizedbasedonthefire

riskposedbythecladding.

Table5:ResultsoftheVictoriancombustiblecladdingaudit

Firerisk Extreme High Medium Low

Number of residentialbuildingsidentified

72 409 388 200

Source:VBA

Despitebeingon-going,thisisthemostcompletedataontheextentofcombustible

claddinguseintheresidentialapartmentbuildingindustry.

To estimate the total stock of residential apartment buildings in Australia with

combustiblecladding,itwasassumedthat:

- AllbuildingswithcombustiblecladdinginVictoriahadbeenidentified.

- CombustiblecladdinguseinotherjurisdictionsmatchesVictoria’s.


- Totalapartmentapprovalsbetween2009and2018areanappropriateproxyto

scale the results of the Victorian audit to reflect the stock of buildings with

combustible cladding in other jurisdictions. Figure 3 below summarizes the

extentofresidentialapartmentbuildingactivityandillustratesthedistribution

byjurisdiction.

Inthetenyearsfromthestartof2009totheendof2018,buildingapprovalshave

been issued for more than 500,000 new apartments in blocks three stories or

higher.(1)Upfromlessthan250,000fortheprevioustenyears.AsFigurebelow

illustrates,most theseapartmentshavebeenbuilt inVictoria,NewSouthWales

andQueensland.

Figure3:ApartmentbuildingactivityinAustralia


As summarized inTable6,below,using thisapproach,weestimate that thereare

over3400buildingsnationwidewithcombustiblecladding.

Table6:EstimatednumberofresidentialapartmentbuildingsinAustraliawithcombustiblecladding

Jurisdiction Extreme High Medium Low Total

NSW 95 540 512 264 1411

VIC 72 409 388 200 1069

QLD 38 218 207 107 570

SA 5 26 25 13 69

WA 10 59 56 29 154

NT 2 12 11 6 31

ACT 11 60 57 29 157

Total 233 1324 1256 648 3461Note:Tasmaniahasbeenexcludedasonly250apartmentsin3storiesormorehighcomplexeshavebeenbuiltoverthelasttenyears.

Basedonotherpublishedestimatestheseestimatesarereasonable.Forexample:

- TheAustralianSocietyofBuildingConsultants (NSW)hasestimated that there

are2700buildingsinSydneyalonewithACM.(19)

- NSW cladding taskforce had identified 222 high priority residential buildings,

including83whichare8storiesorhigher.(20)

- TheDailyTelegraphestimatedthenumberofcladding-affectedbuildingsinNSW

was1500,whiletheStrataCommunityAssociationNSWpresidentChrisDuggan

estimateditwouldbecloserto2000.(21)

- Nearly600private residentialbuildings inQueenslandhavebeen identifiedas

needing an inspection and more than 400 more have not provided enough

informationtodetermineifaninspectionisrequired.(22)

- Western Australia’s State-Wide Cladding Audit has identified 46 residential

apartmentbuildingswhereremediationisrequired.(23)


Costperapartment

The Deakin University study reported that the cost of cladding remediation cost

between$2500and$15,000perapartment for lowtomediumriskbuildings;and

between $20,000 and $60,000 per apartment for high to extreme risk buildings.

Similarly,theAFRreportedthattheaveragecostofreplacingcladdingonahighrise

buildingswasbetween$40,000and$60,000perunit.(24) Basedonnewsstories

reportingwhereithasbeenpossibletoestimatethecostperapartment,thecostper

hightoextremeriskapartmentappearsabithigh(SeeTable4Above).Thesecosts

arelikelytobeattheupperendofthecostsbornebyapartmentownerstorectify

combustible cladding. Therefore, we have adopted a conservative approach and

appliedthefollowingestimates:

- $40,000perextremeorhigh fire riskapartment, sensitivity testingat$30,000

and$50,000.

- $8,625permediumandlowfireriskapartment,sensitivitytestingat$2,500and

$15,000.

Currentlyjurisdictionsareapplyingdifferentcriteriatodetermineabuilding’srisk

of fire and hence requirements for remediation are also variable. However, in

jurisdictionswhere remediationworks are less onerous, it is anticipated that this

willimpactonsalepricetoanextentatleastequivalenttotheavoidedremediation

costs.

Numberofapartmentspercomplex

It has been estimated that on average there will be 49 apartments per effected

building. This is based on the average number of apartments per building in the

MelbourneCityCouncilareaincomplexeswithatleastthreeapartments.(25)This

estimatehasbeensensitivitytestedat34and64.


Costofotherbuildingdefects

Thereissignificantlylessdataontheextentandcostofotherdefectsinresidential

apartmentbuildings.

Therearetworelevantstudiesoftheextentofdefectsinresidentialapartmentsin

Australia.Theseindicatethatapartmentbuildingsaremorelikelythannottohave

defects:

- Asurveyofmorethan1100apartmentowners in2012byUNSWCityFutures

ResearchCentrefoundthatmorethan75%ofrespondentsreportedknowledge

ofoneormoredefects.(26)

- Areviewof212auditreportsacrossNewSouthWales,QueenslandandVictoria

byresearchersatDeakinandGriffithUniversitiesfoundthat97%ofbuildingsin

NewSouthWales,71%inQueenslandand74%inVictoriahadatleast1defect

acrossmultiplelocations.(27)

These findings support the growing concern and the frequent news reports, see

Table4,above,thattheproblemswithcombustiblecladdingrepresentonlyasmall

proportionofthetotalcoststoapartmentownersofsubstandardbuildingpractices.

Wehaveestimatedthelikelycostsofwaterleaks,firesafetydefectsandstructural

defects.

Thecostofeachtypeofdefectarecalculatedusingthefollowingformula:

%withdefectxcostoffixingthedefectxnumberofapartments

Defectsarefurtherbrokendownaseitherminorormajordefects.Howtheinputs

foreachclassofdefectshasbeenestimatedisoutlinedbelow.


Waterleaks

Thereareseveralestimatesoftheextentwaterleaksinresidentialbuildings:

- The Australian Institute of Architects found that 4% of buildings inspected

between2010and2015 inAustralia(9%inNSW)hadamajorwaterproblem

andafurther34%hadaminorwaterproblem.(28)

- UNSW City Futures Research Centre’s survey found that 42% of respondents

reportedinternalleaksand40%reportedwaterpenetrationfromoutside.(26)

- DeakinUniversity’s studyof building audits found thatof themore than3000

defects identified in the audits of 212 buildings, 11% were waterproofing

defects,13%werecladdingdefectsthatledtowateringressand9%wereroof

andgutteringdefects.(27)

WehavechosentoapplytheAustralianInstituteofArchitectsestimates forwater

leaks. It is amore conservative estimate than theUNSWsurvey and it provides a

splitbetweenminorandmajordefectrates.

Data on the cost to rectify water leaks and the damage they cause is sparse. In

Canada, the leaky condo crisis, resulted in 31,000 individual housing units built

between1980sandearly2000,beingdamagedbywater. Theaveragerepaircost

perapartmentwas$25,000($CA23,000).(29)Thisestimateismuchsmallerthan

theestimatesforspecificbuildingspublishedinthenews,however,thesearelikely

tobethemostextremecases.Inaddition,ithasbeenreportedthatthecostoffixing

leaking bathrooms in apartment buildings costs $12,000-$15,000.(30) We have,

therefore,appliedthefollowingestimates:

- $25,000 per apartment with a major water problem, sensitivity tested at

$15,000and$35,000.


- $5,000perapartmentwithaminorwaterproblem,sensitivitytestedat$2,500

and$7,500.

Firesafetydefects

EstimatesofbuildingswithfiresafetydefectsbytheUNSWandDeakinUniversity

studies are very similar, 15% and 13% respectively.(26, 27) We have used the

UNSWestimatebecause theUNSWestimate isperapartmentwhereas theDeakin

estimate is a proportion of total defects. In the absence of more relevant

information,wehaveassumedthattheratioofmajortominordefectsisconsistent

withthereportedratioforwaterleaks.Therefore20%offiresafetydefectsinNSW

areclassedasmajorasare10%inallotherstateandterritories.

ANobleParkapartmentbuildingwasrequired tospend$500,000onrectification

workstoensureitmetfiresafetyrequirementsafteritwasrevealedthatitdidnot

haveadequatefiresafetymeasures.Thisisequivalentto$9,000perapartment.(31)

Thisfigurehasbeenusedascentralestimateforamajorfiresafetydefectandhas

beensensitivitytestedat$4000and$14,000.Aminordefectassumedtobe$1,000

perapartment.

Structuraldefects

TheDeakinUniversitystudyreportsthat7%ofthedefectsintheauditreportswere

classedasstructural.(27)Wehaveusedthistoestimatetheprevalenceofstructural

defects in apartment buildings. However, it is not known if these defects were

spread uniformly through the buildings audited or concentrated in a few specific

buildings.Assuch,thisestimatemayoverstatethenumberofeffectedbuildings.

In the absence of more relevant information, we have assumed that the ratio of

major to minor defects is consistent with the reported ratio for water leaks.


Therefore20%ofstructuraldefectsinNSWareclassedasmajorasare10%inall

otherstateandterritories.

The cost of fixing Mascot Towers is estimated to exceed $10 million.(6) This is

equivalentto$75,000perapartment.Wehaveappliedamoreconservativecostof

$60,000 as a This figure has been used as central estimate for amajor structural

defectandsensitivitytestedat$45,000and$75,000.Aminordefecthasassumedto

be$5,000perapartmentandhasbeensensitivitytestedat$2,500and$7,500.


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THE COST OF APARTMENT BUILDING DEFECTS · Equity Economics and Development Partners Pty. Ltd. Based...

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