The Consumer, The Food

Supply and the Food Safety

Dilemma

What This Talk Will Cover• The current environment

• Consumer desires and food safety challenges

• Microbiological hazards

• Additives & pesticides

• Organic, conventional or integrated pest management

• The food supply and sustainability• More plant-based and less animal food – considerations and

realities

Poor diet related >>600,000/yr

• >20% of all deaths

• Cancer, coronary heart disease, diabetes

Texting while driving (25% accidents) 6000

Food-borne incl. toxicity 3000

• ( > 1,600 – known agent)

https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/

a

Premature Deaths/ Year

Getting in or out of bed 100

Choking, children <10yr 77

Accidental pesticide poison 27

Vending machines toppling 13

Pesticides/ chemicals in food ?

GMOs in food ?

http://www.oddee.com/item_98002.aspx

Food Risk & Public Perception

Under-assess risk associated with some

microbiological hazards

Over-assess risk associated with ,

pesticides, GMO, most chemicals

DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-4565.2005.00020.x

Consumers’ Beliefs Are Often Conflicting

Fewer additives / chemicals = safer.

Economical / convenient /fresh / exotic & homemade taste.

More plant foods but minimal processing.

Fewer animals, but more organic produce.

Organic, local & free range but less land, fewer inputs.

2050 - Food for the 9.8 billion

Food, Nutrition Risk & Public Perception

Food Safety Challenges

Bacteria, toxins, and antibiotic resistance.

Changes in our food production and supply -imports (15%) and new technologies.

Changing preferences– convenience, choice,

diversity, plant –based alternates, less processing & fewer additives.

Environmental changes incl. global warming ➔food contamination, new organisms, growth regions.

Better tests for foodborne illness & detection of

outbreaks.

https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/features/worldfoodsafetyday.html

FDA and WHO Priorities for Risk

1. Microbiol contamination

2. Nutritional imbalance

3. Environmental contaminants

4. Naturally-occurring toxins

5. Pesticide residues

6. Food additives

Confusion about Toxicity vs Hazard

• Safety

• Toxicity

• Hazard

11

All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; only the dose permits something not to be poisonous. Paracelceus , 1533

Most Common Food Poisoning Organisms (US 2018)• Norovirus

• Escherichia coli incl. 157 H7, 0156, 011

• Salmonella

• Clostridium perfringens

• Campylobacter

• Staphylococcus aureus

• Listeria

• Cyclospora Cryptosporidium

• Clostridium Botulinum B. cereus

Gamarra,R. Food Poisoning. Gastroenterology 2018. https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/175569-overview

https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/foodborne-germs.html oct 2019; https://www.foodsafety.gov/food-poisoning/bacteria-and-viruses 4.2019

Food Illness Incidence (CDC) and Sources

Sickened ~48 million

Hospitalized 128,000

Died 3,000

~ 40% non-meat

US Foodborne Infections in Produce

2010-2017Sprouts – 30% of Vegetable Outbreaks

Poultry

Campylobacter• 41–84% raw chicken in supermarkets

• 14-56% for turkey

• 4–5% have Salmonella

• Cook poultry to 165F

• Do not wash chicken and raw meat

• Reduce cross-contamination

Madden RH, et al.. J Food Prot. 2011;74:1912-6; Williams A et al . Microbiol. 2012;12:184.

Foodborne Disease & Raw Milk

Unpasteurized milk consumed by 3.2%; cheese, 1.6%

➔96% of illnesses from dairy between 2009–2014.

➔840X more illnesses

➔ 45X more hospitalizations

• Illegal to sell in 20 states

• France – several deaths per year

Costard S, et al. 2017. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 23(6), 957-

964; https://realrawmilkfacts.com/PDFs/Raw-Milk-Legislation-

Packet.pdf

Harder to treat severe infections

Food Servers - Hepatitis A 2016-19

• Hepatitis A outbreaks

• 29, 171 sickened

• 17,704 hospitalized

• 298 deaths

• Sick workers are the cause.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Coronavirus

• Belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold, SARS and MERS

• Usually affects animals - bats, camels, snakes and donkeys

Consumer Wish List

Short list of recognizable ingredients

Long “free from” list

Minimal processing

Sustainability & transparency

Certifications (such as organic, non-GMO)

Labels create a presumption that the product without is superior to the product with.

Additives & Preservatives

Survey of Ingredient Statement Terms

• 80% want preservative-free

• 65% think additions are unnatural

• 59% think preservatives add shelf life & convenience

• 21% think additive-free means better taste

• 74% say they need more time• many do not cook

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/ 2019; future-of-fresh-food-sales-consumer-demand-strategies.html; Technomics Survey 2015

Avoid Chemicals but Want Fresh and Safety

Molds Produce MycotoxinsToxins, Allergens, Carcinogens

• Patulin

• Fumonison

• Ochratoxin

Calcium propionatePotassium sorbateSodium benzoate

Calcium propionatePotassium sorbateSodium benzoate

1 week 2 weeks

No additives

Sorbate• Sorbates (sorbic acid, calcium or sodium sorbate)

Fruit of European Rowan (Sorbus aucuparia)

• Mountain Ash tree

• Substitute for coffee beans; herb teas

• Jams and jellies eaten as an accompaniment to game

• Beverages • Wine, Schnapps – Diodgriafel,

• flavor beer and ale

Common Preservative – PropionateMakes the holes in Swiss Cheese

“Advice” about additives? "When you look

at the ingredients, if you can't spell it or pronounce it,

you probably shouldn't eat it.”the Food Babe

Hari

“Don’t eat something your

grandmother didn’t eat or pronounce !”

All Natural Kiwi

Octadecanoic acid4-Vinylguaiacol

Does the short ingredient list make a better choice?

• Water, Soy Protein Concentrate, Coconut Oil, Sunflower Oil, Natural Flavors, Potato Protein, Methylcellulose, Yeast Extract, Cultured Dextrose, Food Starch Modified, Soy Leghemoglobin, Salt, Soy Protein Isolate, Mixed Tocopherols (Vitamin E), Zinc Gluconate, Thiamine Hydrochloride (Vitamin B1), Sodium Ascorbate (Vitamin C), Niacin, Pyridoxine Hydrochloride (Vitamin B6), Riboflavin (Vitamin B2), Vitamin B12.

Impossible Burger

• Filtered water, coconut oil, food starch - modified (non-GMO potato and tapioca), potato starch, calcium citrate, sea salt, vegan mozzarella flavor, sorbic acid (preservative), beta carotene (color)

Vegan Cheddar

• Potatoes, Vegetable Oil, Salt Organic Potato

Chips

Fresh/Organic Unprocessed Beliefs

• Provides nutrition/personal satisfaction

• Confused about fresh, organic, natural

• Uncertainty that organic food is better

• Worried about ‘big food’ and processing

• Food waste and pollution caused by mass food production is troubling

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/ 2019 survey

future-of-fresh-food-sales-consumer-demand-strategies.html n=2000; >150 food execs

Millennials Drive Organics

WHO Pesticide Facts

Potentially toxic to humans• Both acute, chronic and developmental impact• Dependent on quantity and mode of exposure

Greatest risk - ag workers /gardeners• Older pesticides stay in soil and water.• Banned - developed countries

• Used in some countries

219 /2018. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pesticide-residues-in-food

Dirty Dozen Fact or Myth?

…“provides consumers with a scientifically valid and reliable tool to protect themselves from pesticide residues on fruits and vegetables “

EWG “Shoppers Guide to Pesticides”

Since 1995

• Consumers should choose organic forms

• OR purchase “Clean Fifteen”

• CLAIM: “Consumers can lower their pesticide consumption by nearly four-fifths by substituting organic forms of the commodities on the Dirty Dozen list.”

Organic vs Conventional

Scientific Study - Does avoiding “The Dirty

Dozen” improve diets?

EWG METHODOLOGY –‘HITS’ vs concentration

• % detectable residues

• % with ≥ 2 residues

• Ave. No. / sample

• Total No.

Σ of rankings = EWG score

Hits are not concentrations!

Each line is a hit?

Reference Dose (RdF) = NOEL÷ 1000

• Applies to any toxic substance

• Acceptable level for chronic risks

• Non cancer/ non developmental

• No observable effect level (NOEL)

• 3 sensitive species

• NOEL is x 𝜇g/kg/d is divided by 1000 for

Safety.

UC Davis Lab versus EWG

USDA data 10 most frequently detected pesticides

• Used pesticide concentration Used frequency/ quantity of eating to determine risk

• Compared exposures with EPA reference doses

99 % Conventional /Organic Samples < < EPA Reference Dose

10 most frequently detected pesticides on any of the “Dirty Dozen” commodities were FAR BELOW Reference Doses (rFd)

>75% levels 1 million X lower than doses that cause no effects (NOEL) in laboratory animals

Blueberries (#5), cherries (#9), kale (#10) – HIGHEST exposure less than 0.003% of the rFd

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pesticide-residues-in-food

Residues Far Below Reference Dose (RfD)•

Pesticides in Organic

20+ pesticides allowed in organics National Organic Standards Board

Pesticides inadvertently contaminate organic foodsSome “organic” growers may use pesticides not allowed by organic rules

Organic vs Conventional

Pesticide residue • Organic lower

• BUT very low in regular produce• Unclear if it matters to health

Toxic metals• Organic grain - lower cadmium

• Fruits and vegetables – no difference

Bacterial contamination• Risk of – no difference IF manure is treated

• Organic - lower risk of resistant bacteria.

Organic - Higher Plant Flavonoids (Polyphenolics)

• Fertilizers promote growth

• Fast, healthy growth ➔freedom from pests ➔ fewer secondary metabolites

• Stress due to insect, weeds, or plant pathogens ➔secondary metabolites

• Also lower yield and can result in damage

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jia_Ching_Wu

EAT 7-8 servings

Organic / ConventionalYield vs Other Aspects

Cons of Organic • ↓ yield ~35% ➔↑ land requirement by

50%

• ↓soil carbon stocks

• ↓calories and protein/ acres

Pros of Organic • ↑ soil organic matter and nitrogen

• ↓ fossil energy / per acre

• Conserve soil moisture and water resources, especially for drought

• Lower emissions of CO2, N2O, and CH4

Organic - lower than conventional yields

• Differences vary

• System

• Crop

• Site characteristics

• 13% lower with best organic practices

Clark, M. Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of agricultural production systems, agricultural input efficiency, and food choice.

Organic / Conventional & IPM

Integrated Pest Management (IPM)• Mix of organic & conventional farming

technologiesD Pimentel, M Burgess - Integrated Pest Management, 2014 - Springer

K. Lorenz, R. Lal. Advances in Agronomy, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/bs.agron.2016.05.003

Holger Kirchmann H. Outlook Ag. Why organic farming is not the way forward. 2019, 48 (1):22-27

Nutrients – Conventional vs OrganicPer 30 g serving

Energy kcal 140

Protein g 4

Total fat g 2.5

Carbohydrate g 25

Fiber, dietary g 3.5

Sugars, total g 4.5

Minerals

Calcium, Ca mg 15 2%

Iron, Fe mg 1 4%

Potassium, K mg 150 4 %

Sodium, Na mg 0. 0%

Vitamin A 0. 0%

Vitamin C 0. 0%

Vitamin D IU 0. 0%

Whole grain wheat,

dates, sunflower

seeds, raisins

(raisins, sunflower

oil), whole grain rye,

barley, whole grain

oats, whole grain

triticale (wheat),

almonds, flaxseed

and walnuts.

Fortified Ready-to –Eat Non-organic Processed Cereal

13% Calories

> 13% most micronutrients

51

Fortified and Enriched Processed Foods Decrease the Percent of Consumers Not Meeting US EAR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Vit. A Vit. C Vit D Vit. E Thiamin Niacin Ribo. Vit. B-6 Vit. B-12 Folate

Pe

rce

nta

ge b

elo

w E

AR

, %

Natural Occurring

Nutrients Added

Supplements Added

Fulgoni et al, J Nutr 2011:141:1847-54 NHANES Data

EAR = estimated average requirement

Fortified, Enriched Processed Grains Deliver Folate and B Vitamins

“Following folic acid fortification, the birth prevalence of spina bifida in North America fell by ~ 50% and that of other NTDs by approximately one-third.“

• A carb- or grain-restricted diet prior to conception (1 yr)

• 30% > risk of spina bifida and anencephaly

Desrosiers TA, et al Birth Defects Res. 2018; 00:1-9

US Centers for Disease Control“ One of the 10 most important public health measures of the last decade”

https://www.cps.ca/en/documents/position/folate

Organic /Conventional

• Meat /milk/ dairy

• All milk delivers 9 essential nutrients. • Calcium, riboflavin, vitamin D and potassium.

• Organic milk and meat - more CLA, n-3 fatty acids

• vitamin E* (0.18 mg/c vs 0.15)

• Fe* (0.08 mg/cup vs. 0.07*)

• Regular milk more iodine, Se*

* not nutritionally significant because RDI 15 mgE and 18 mg Fe

Barański M et al; Effects of organic food consumption on human health; the jury is still out!, FoodNutr Res, 61:1, 2017; Średnicka-Tober D, et al. Br J Nutr. 2016;115:1043-6

“considerable

uncertainty/controversy

remains on whether or to

what extent these

composition differences

affect human health.”

Grass fed vs Grain Fed Fatty acids and Environment

Andrew Balmford, Professor of Conservation Science from Cambridge

Caution: “if higher yields are simply used to increase profit or lower prices, they will only accelerate the extinction crisis ….

“Our results suggest that high-yield farming could be harnessed to meet the growing demand for food without destroying more of the natural world. However, if we are to avert mass extinction it is vital that land-efficient

‘High-yield’ farming costs the environment less than previously thought – and could help spare habitatsNew findings suggest that more intensive agriculture might be the “least bad” option for feeding the world while saving its species – provided use of such “land-efficient” systems prevents further conversion of wilderness to farmland.

Natl Center for Appropriate Technology USDA Yellow - lower than convnetionalhttps://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/74658/60128_eib159.pdf?v=0

….team concluded that “the organic

system is less efficient than the low-

input system because of the great

distance that many organic fertilizers

(such as dried seaweed) are shipped

before arriving at the field, and

because of energy requirements for

mechanical weed control.”

http://wsare.usu.edu/pro/pr2001/SW9

9-008.pdf

Fertilizer Pesticide Fuels & oils Utilities

Corn ($/bu) 3.41 1.81 1.13 0.75 1.68 0.68 1.35 0.23

Wheat ($/bu) 0.79 1.83 0.79 1.11 1.63 1.20 0.42 0.38

Fruit & nuts ($/acre) 192.72 152.63 222.07 214.35 163.75 135.80 257.47 184.23

Rice ($/lb) 3.26 2.78 2.00 2.25 2.47 1.68 1.05 0.70

Dairy ($/head) 108.63 199.46 23.88 75.53 215.67 222.05 105.01 127.31

Hogs ($/head) 48.43 30.85 10.05 15.11 36.01 53.75 81.91 33.10

Organic- Lower Energy Costs/ Unit only in 1/3 of comparisons

Organ Conven Organ Conven Organ Conven Organ Conven

Clark M, Tilman D 2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 Review of 164 studies and 742 ag systems 064016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cd5

•Does fresh produce generate greater waste than frozen?

•Is frozen produce better outside of the growing season –transport costs

Processed Food and WasteDutch and UK Studies

Waste -Frozen vs Fresh• 47% - 50% less with frozen

• Fewer trips to store• Less waste in the home

• Waste is utilized by company

• Culinary skills • Prepare/ plan meals /use leftovers

• Overlooked with emphasis on non-processed food

Janssen et al Waste Manag. 2017;67:298-307; Martindale W. Proc Nutr Soc 2017 76: 28-33

59

Local versus Conventional

• Local farmer vehicles - 2-3 X fuel economy of a semi truck

• IF weight carried ≤300 lbs. and 2 -way distance to market ≥50 miles ➔ gallons of fuel /cwt. greater than conventional supply chain.

•Grigsby CC. "Locational Advantage and the Impact of Scale: Comparing Local and Conventional Fruit and Vegetable Transportation Efficiencies. " Master's Thesis, U. Tennessee, 2015.https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/3365

• Forssell, S., & Lankoski, L. 2015. Ag Human Values, 1-13; 2016, 1-15

“alternative food networks hold much potential for sustainability, but need to be critically evaluated on a case-by- case basis, as do conventional food networks.”

Are consumers willing to eat only seasonal etc.

Is local always better from energy or GHG?

Less GHG from Spanish Lettuce than UK grown –lettuce in winter

https://foodsource.org.uk/book/export/html/4

Plant-Based Vs Omnivore

Eat Lancet

• Not practical

• Many on the Committee were vegan

The Diet for Planetary Health Eat Lancet

• All Meat, fish, eggs • 150 calories /d

• Potatoes / starchy tubers

• 39 kcal/d

Criticism of EatLancet

Nutrient rich foods – higher environmental cost/ acre but not per nutrient

> Greenhouse gas (GHG)/kg food

• Possibly flawed• Should be /1000 cal) or /nutrient or / acre• ¼ lb beef (300 cal) = 2 lbs broccoli (300 cal)• 4 oz beef 28 g prot = 10 c broccoli• 2 -(1200 lb steer) 1500 lbs meat/acre• Broccoli 8000 lbs/acre

• Recommended low energy density foods up to 90% water

• Water – scarce resource

• Cost 3%-73% of incomehttps://qz.com/1777399/by-calorie-broccoli-is-a-bigger-carbon-emitter-than-chicken/

Plant-based. Is It Recommended?

Water, Soy Protein Concentrate, Coconut Oil, Sunflower Oil, Natural Flavors, and 2% or less of: Potato Protein, Methylcellulose, Yeast Extract, Cultured Dextrose, Food Starch Modified, Soy Leghemoglobin, Salt, Soy Protein Isolate, Mixed Tocopherols, Zinc Gluconate, Thiamine Hydrochloride, Sodium Ascorbate, Niacin,

Pyridoxine Hydrochloride , Riboflavin, Vitamin B12.

Impossible - 3 g more fiber, 6 g less protein, 17 vs 25% iron

Food Supply and Climate Change

• Food for 2050 - what is the best approach?

• Food supply chain creates ~13.7 billion MT CO2 /year

• 25% of all greenhouse gas emissions from human activity

• Farming - 61% of food production emissions

Future Suggestions and

Problems

Worry and address real risks -Obesity & Diabetes

Age-Adjusted Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes

Among US Adults

<4.5%Missing data

4.5%–5.9% 6.0%–7.4%

7.5%–8.9% ≥9.0%

CDC’s Division of Diabetes Translation. United States Surveillance System available at http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/data

2015

Question Food Myths, the Newest Diet or Study, the Self- appointed Expert

https://shareably.net/healthy-food-myths/

•Microwaving foods kills nutrients or is unsafe. ...

•Calories don’t count…

•Fat-free is healthier. ...

•No-carb/ no grain is healthier and better for dieting…

•Avoid anything white …

•Coffee makes you thirstier.

•Fresh is better than frozen.

•“Natural” means it’s safe. ...

•Brown eggs are healthier than white eggs. ...

•Juice cleanses and other short fasts detox our body…

•Fast weight loss is desirable…

•Any one food group or food is the cause…

https://rightasrain.uwmedicine.org/body/food/healthy-food-myths

https://shcs.ucdavis.edu/blog/archive/health-trends/five-food-myths-debunked

Strategies and Recommendations

• Wash thoroughly under clean running water. • Brush/ scrub hard surfaces to remove dirt,

microorganisms, & pesticides

• Wash, YES; Soak, treat; NO

• Soaking ↓ pesticide residues, BUT ↓ water-soluble nutrients

• Do not wash meat or poultry

• Center for Food Safety - DO NOT soak or use soaps/ detergents etc.

A. Low level of pesticide residues detected

B. No food poisoning incidents related to pesticide residues

https://www.cfs.gov.hk/english/faq/faq_07.html; This position has been endorsed by the Expert Committee on Food Safety.

Blame the right people

Whose Fault Is It? Choices8% Eat According to MyPlate

72

Choose what fits your needs and budget.

Know that each choice has risks and benefits

.

What ever we are doing

Cancer death rate is going down 1930-2020

Note –death rate versus death

Life expectancy is increasing 78.9

BUT US ranks 39 in the world behind

Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, nearly all of Europe, Australia and New Zealand, Barbados, Chile, Taiwan

https://www.cancer.org/research/cancer-facts-statistics/all-cancer-facts-figures/cancer-facts-figures-2019.html

Strategies and Recommendations

• Reduce waste - less waste with many processed foods and additives

• Plan well - concentrate on what can be controlled

• Make healthy choices

• Consider GMO as a technology

• Be skeptical of simple solutions• If there is a simple answer, the

article may have a bias or use only a few of many criteria.

Oldenberg

Health Risks – Heavy Metals

Hazard Quotient = based on daily intake and non-carcinogenic risk

• All levels were lower than allowable limit

Hayadat et al. Environ. Pollution 243, Pt A: 292-300, 2018.

Most Consumed Veg - No Significant Difference in Minerals

Hayadat N et al. Environ. Pollution 243, Pt A: 292-300, 2018.

𝝁𝒈/kg Cobalt Nickel Copper Zinc

Organic 3.86 58.5 632 2528

Conven-tional

5.94 68.2 577 2554