The Consequences of Radical Reform - The French Re

7/30/2019 The Consequences of Radical Reform - The French Re

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American Economic Review 101 (December 2011): 32863307http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.7.3286

3286

I w xp y F

R Ep, p w Gy, q

, xy p q w. A 1792

F p y Ep .

T F p y q w

x ; y p , -

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y

. F xp, w

xy p ky

p w F R f

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y w y

p w (M O 1982;A 2008).2

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2T x w ancienrgime p p w w F R py Ep p p. T q FR p p y, w y p .

The Consequences of Radical Reform:

The French Revolution

By Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni,

Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson*

* A: Dp E, M I Ty, 50 M D, C,MA 02139, CIFAR(-: @.); C: S W, Lw-Mx-U, Lw. 33/IV 80539 M Gy (-: [email protected].);J: S S M, MIT, 50 M D, C, MA 02139 (-: j@.); R: Dp G IQSS, H Uy, 1737 C S., C,MA 02138, NBER CIFAR (-: j@..). W k J D, R Dx,N F, T G, P H, Pp H, J Mky, S O, W R,J V, J W, P W, pp A E A, ISy Nw I E, V Spk , - A N, CIFAR, H, M, P S E, USC, Y . Lp F, C G-J, Tk H, J Hpp, M Kpp p

x . T w , p p://www.w./.pp?=10.1257/.101.7.3286.


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3287ACEMOGLU ET AL.: CONSEQUENCES OF RADICAL REFORMVOL. 101 NO. 7

W q F R

w p G p q

Ry W. P Gy, py w w, w

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w . W f - p

w f F , F p (y), pxy ppy, z . T p. I, y w f-

y w z

y.3

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-

p. W w w

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q w. T pp w- y

w. F, w x p

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p yp F wk

y p p p Gy. O,

w p y F -

q. O y, y p

w y p .

Cy f y, p Gy choose F

, w imposed f y R

y Np.4 M, xp y F

p w w p. I, w j .T f w , py p A P

( B) p pp y . T w -, F xp y ,

F .5 I y ,

pp F R w

z p , y y j yp

j y p y, y, y

p pw.6 T, f ppx, w k

3T wk pp y (A . 2009) p -, Ep-w

w p xp f F .4I , w J ( ) p y F ,

p py j w w py F. S, xp, W Dy (1989, p 9).

5T y G D : L F q p , q z, R, O, Ap. L, f pq (p N C, Jy 31, 1793; q Ty C. W.B 1983, p. 2).

6I ky F w z p w pfy w. I , ky y p w w w ( J Mky2003). T xp x. By 1800 B w - py (.., p) y . Tx p p y R, w, F


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3288 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW DECEMBER 2011

p F R x -

p .

T z w. S I p w

y F R q Ep y

F. S II . S III p -

w F p pxy p, z, G p. S IV

-

p w F p -

. S V , w

App.

I. Historical Overview

A.Europe beore the Revolution

B F R, Ep w y w k

: y - y -

p.7 By y, -

pp y p Ep,

y p. S

E Ep ( J B 1978), w p y x w ,

w q x

k.8 F xp, R, f Gy

F , (Grundherrschat), w y

, w p (B 1983). M, y y y q p - . T p w qy xp x,

w j p w , jy x

p .

T y w pp p z.

A j p w y , fy y

p y p w

p. S xp p p-

y H K (1989), S O (2004), Ek L (2009).I j R, C A, p w

x (p w) w fy y

R pfy y w p . Ny, py p y F p w otherreasons.

7T w w Dy (1989), R R. P (1959), P (1964), G R(1988), B (1983), B (1986), B (1996), D G (1997), Ax G (2003), CJ. E (1996), E (2001), Gy E (2003).

8S E Ep p p y, p wk w w w w p Gyw E .


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.9 I , y w y w y

, w xp p w w

y .

B. The Revolution and its Eect on Europe

T f w w y F j Ep pw

- W F C k 1792. Cy

y xp, w Rp w -

y w. F w xp w y

w w w Rp -

P A. T F qky z p-y B,

N, -y Swz. By 1795, F

f R ( k R); 1802 w fyp F.

A Np k, F p p wy

Ep. I Gy, w y

R, Np

F . T P L (Fy 1801) z Hy R Ep. H

p , p w

k, pp, ; y,

k w 40 (G 2003). M xpP w 1806 C R.

A , Np p z w

Gy . T Dy B

k R w M 1806 ( y --w JM), K Wp ( y J) A 1807, G Dy Fk Fy 1810 (Np p, E B, w pp ). T w y F p- p w Np R. D p

Np k p N Gy, D 1810

x F p Lw Sxy ( p K H) H H, Lk, B.

C.Institutional Changes

My Ep w Gy w k F y

. W p F R 1790

, py p

y pp (, .., B 1983;Dy 1989), p y R q. M fy, w 1795 1798

9D w, pp fy , xp, .., y Sp R. Ep (1998).O , O (2007).


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w (B 1983), p wy y k. Eqy p w . F xp, F

A 1794 w w w

R (Jy D 1980), w w py p y w.

A Np w Ep k y , yw y, p y

y ( G 2003; Ow Cy 1965; J. S W 1991).Np w p (CodeNapolon) - p (My Ly 1994). K pz p (1989, p. 212): W y w qy CodeNapolon, R

( k) w y p-- wk, y y w yy -

z y. T R w y-

p w w . S w y-

y G k, K

Wp, G Dy B.

I p, Np y F p,

py w p w .

N, p w p p

y R. T

. F, Np py w

y p y .

S, k , w F. Fy,

p , p,

qy w x Np q.

A f p Np 1815 p

p 25 y . I R, w p

w P q C V, w

y p F , -

. P w p

F ( H A. L. F 1903). T p w y w ky . I p,

w y pw, H, Bwk,

H-K, w k. A q

w y ancien rgime pp pw. I y S IV w pfy

y x py.

II. Data

A. Outcome Variables

W 19 py p Gy, w p

p -y Gy, p


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(P, B). O ppy p z , f pp

w 5,000 . P B (1988, . 1) J V(1984) y w py pp wk pp pp. A, J,

R (2002) p - -- w z p p

w z.

Uz py G p p

y z B, J B, P C (1988), pp .

D Appx B.

Uz 1850 p-

G Ep. I z, w

p py 64 G y

1849, 1882, 1895, 1907 ( H Fk 1994). T py- y pxy z

k w p w z w

z.

B. Other Variables

O f y w 1792 1815

py q w F p. W y w

F p pp-

y p F ; w x y p

y , xp P. T 1 19 p , y . T

x p z p

F (.., p xp ), - wk yp. N, w- q

y w p y x

w F .

W x Gy, w p

F p --

- y. H ( Appx D ) w k

p. W F , - . W p x

pk , w

y y,

x , z ( w y C ). T 1 p Gy, p- y f p.

C 2 w w p w

qy w. T F (CodeNapolon) y, Sx 1863 G


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(BrgerlichesGesetzbuch) 1900.10 T w w1802 1810 y F. N B w

, F 1810.

T w w x : f,

3, ( y , w p y 1800

p Gy w E) , 4, p - ,

Grundherrschat. I , w w p-

y p ppy p (y, 2025 py ). F 3 4, wp k -

. A , pp p w

P C V y (P

10O w z - qy w, P AllgemeinesLandrecht 1795 B CodexMaximilianeus 1756; Appx E.

Table 1Territories and Reforms

T

Y

F

C

A

A

A

R

1850

R

1900

P.

w

(1750)(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Panel A. Treatment

R (P) 19 1802 1798 1804 1795 50.25 100.25 1,439P (B) 19 1802 1798 1804 1795 50.25 100.25 239Mk/R (P) 6 181015, 1900 1808 1825 1809 28.25 65.75 150W (P) 6 181015, 1900 1808 1825 1809 28.25 65.75 529Bwk 6 180814, 1900 180818, 1834 180918, 1834 180815, 1864 16 50 155

P S

(P)6 180815, 1900 1808 1809 1809 32.75 70.25 763

H-K 6 180814, 1900 180814, 1832 180914, 1832 180816, 1869 15.25 48 294

H 3 180813, 1900 180814, 1833 180914, 1833 180815, 1869 14.25 47 1,090

Average 9.98 32.41 72.88

Panel B. Control

B 0 1810 1783 1820 1862 34.25 81.25 609B, 0 1900 1808 1826 1868 16.5 49.5 1,163

H-D 0 1900 1811 1816 1866 18.25 51.75 264

S 0 1865 1832 1832 1862 9 52.25 1,020

W 0 1900 1817 1836 1862 11.75 46.25 925

Average 0 16.31 54.46

Panel C. Control (east of the Elbe)B (P) 0 1900 1811 1821 1810 27 64.5 797E P (P) 0 1900 1811 1821 1810 27 64.5 554P (P) 0 1900 1811 1821 1810 27 64.5 342S (P) 0 1900 1811 1821 1810 27 64.5 1,053Mk-Sw 0 1900 1820 1862 1869 7.5 37.25 217

Sw-H 0 1900 1805 1805 1867 22.5 55.75 541

Average 0 25.1 61.46

Notes: S Appx. A w y pp 1750 (p 8, 1,000). T x 6 7 p xpy w (1850, 1900) p x.


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yp xp z). I , Bwk, H, H-K, w 1815,

k Np .

C 5 w w , y

y, y y p . W kw

w w -

p ,

, w xpy. A, w

p w y ( w k), w , w xp P, z y y y.

I 6 7 w p x w xpy

, 1850 1900. F py, x p py y

y p p y 4. A

xp, Dy Bwk, w w y F

K Wp, w yy w

y C V. By 1850 x y y Code

Napolon, p 26 y,

25 y, y. T

x Bwk 1850 (6 + 25 + 26 + 7)/4 = 16.T x w w p w Gy w

y F, p w y z, k P

B, Gy -

p p T 1, F 1. I 1850,

, x w 50.25 R 28.25 Wp.

T w 27 P p E 34.25

B p x z

p w p

, - y .

0

20

40

60

80

Reformsin

dex

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900

Year

Treatment Control

Figure 1. Reforms Index, by Treatment Group


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C.Descriptive Statistics

T 2 p , p 13 p w E (f ) p 19 p. N ( 3) y w E. A E

y y p , w ,

W p p y F. W k 13 p

p. N, w E

y p yp

p F p w Gy py ( y) z P.

T f x w T 2 z x p

; p F 2A 2B. W w z

p p 1789. I, 1750 z y

p w w p ; , z y

w y p w E .11 I

, w, z w py p

1800. W E, xp, y 1900 z 8 p

11T p , z R, Wp, Bwk, B, S 1700.

Table 2Descriptive Statistics

W E W p

A C T C A(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Uz 1700 5.86 5.49 6.35 7.40 7.08

[4.22] [2.89] [5.93] [5.75] [5.61]

Uz 1750 7.89 7.66 8.09 8.90 8.59[4.12] [4.19] [4.4] [4.91] [4.61]

Uz 1800 10.23 8.45 11.75 10.22 10.81[4.37] [3.47] [4.71] [5.16] [4.92]

Uz 1850 13.78 12.38 14.97 14.45 14.65[6.01] [5.42] [6.65] [7.9] [7.26]

Uz 1875 25.70 22.22 28.67 25.19 26.52

[10.7] [9.15] [11.69] [11.2] [11.21]

Uz 1900 39.89 35.60 43.55 38.27 40.29[13.92] [12.12] [15.2] [14.4] [14.54]

S P 0.579 0.532 0.618 0.677 0.654[0.343] [0.385] [0.303] [0.347] [0.33]

L 50.43 49.28 51.41 50.97 51.14[1.5] [1.15] [0.98] [2.22] [1.85]

L 9.89 10.89 9.03 12.78 11.34

[2.01] [2.08] [1.51] [3.49] [3.42]

D P 592.4 631.8 558.7 808.9 712.9[146.3] [158] [128.2] [261.4] [251]

Note: M (w y pp 1750), k.


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p p y Np. T w p- p y. T p-

y w p ( P). T P pp w p.

III. Reduced-Form Evidence

I w y q (OLS) - p w

0

10

20

30

40

Urbanizationrate

(inpercent)

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900

Year

Treatment Control (west of the Elbe)

Difference

Figure 2A. Urbanization Rates, by Treatment Group

10

0

10

20

30

40

Urbanizationrate(inpercent)

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900

Year

Treatment Control (whole sample)

Difference

Figure 2B. Urbanization Rates, by Treatment Group


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z G p. T p p

1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1875, 1900. O -

w:

(1) ujt = dt + j +

pre

d Ij+ post

d Ij+ Xjt + jt,

w ujt z py j t, dt , j py fx , Xjt , w w k, jt . T ky Ij, wp y F p. T f

{t}pre {t}tpost, w pre y post

y , w w k p

p-F R (

d Ij p ). U yp F pw y x, w xp f {t}tpre -fy z, F w f

- w, {t}tpost p.T pp, , y/

py w y - x p p

( Jy W 2002, . 7).12

A.Main Results

W 1 T 3 w p, W E. W

pp 1750 w, f

z p p.13

T post

y 1850,1875, 1900, prep 1750 1800, w 1700 y. I - 1 w 1750= 0.491 1800= 0.247, w y F p w w w wy -

y, w 1800. 1850= 0.160w 0.250, y 1850 w ( ) y F p w z. By 1875, w,

p w y F p z,

y 1900, : f 1900 q 0.634.T p p 12 p p w 19

y F p, w p ppxy -

y .14 E

12T H-W y/py .

13T pp z 1750 w 200,000 (Bwk, Mk) (R, S, H, B). Uw y z p w p 5,000 z ;w p y w p, w ky j . N, w kw, x pf p, w p w wpf.

14O T 3 y (13/19 p), p-y yp ppx y . A y, w w p p


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f 1875 1900 y f, p- F- j f p- y (1850, 1875, 1900) w p- y jy y

p-1850 ( 5 p f).15

C 2 p y w pp w. T

qy , wk: p , -f y 1875 1900 jy f y.

I E w ,

3 4, , w

w . I 3, f y

p 1. T F- j f

p y w j 2 p.

W y y 1880, 1885, 1895,

1905, 1910 12 19 p. Rp

p y, w y

W E p w p, xp F- w

wy j yp p y 1 p pf ( p q).

( t- w yp p) y A. C C, J B. G D L. M (2008), p f 10,000 p. T p y f T 3. R w y f pp t-, w w y p y p. F xp, 1 p- 1900 y 0.146 0.285,w 2 p- 1900 0.212 0.115. S ppy T 3, 4, 6.

15T F- yp w y p F , pp t-, w yp y p pf y.

Table 3Urbanization in Germany

Dp : z

W E A

W Uw W Uw

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Y F p 1750 0.491 0.252 0.488 0.197[0.249] [0.172] [0.235] [0.164]

Y F p 1800 0.247 0.0425 0.268 0.0471[0.225] [0.153] [0.227] [0.178]

Y F p 1850 0.160 0.0332 0.221 0.0235[0.250] [0.153] [0.249] [0.181]

Y F p 1875 0.402 0.354 0.266 0.252[0.326] [0.295] [0.303] [0.299]

Y F p 1900 0.634 0.529 0.503 0.506[0.408] [0.401] [0.376] [0.423]

O 74 74 109 109

N 13 13 19 19

p- j f 1800 0.0532 0.463 0.0205 0.214

Notes: A y y . R y y.W w y pp 1750.


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O, w F p

G p. O y, , py j f-

p- y, p p y

F xp p z, py 1850. T

p. F w p y p y -

w, q xp p (, , B 1983, B 1986).16 T, - p F y w . B -

p R-p . T p

yp j w -

p y. T

I R, w k p C

Ep y.17 O p

y w yp.

B.Robustness

T 4 - . I 1,

w p -p R (p Cy Mk), p w - y. T y

.

C 26 w y -

- y

p p. I 2, xp, w w

y pp P

(.., D Protestantj). C 3 y - w k w -y py. I ,

( w , jy f 5 10 p).

M py, 4 5 y w

w P. S w

P ky p y F ,

p k w x y F p

w p w

y . Ry, p 1875 1900

w py . T w P jy f 10 p

16T p z p - F w, wk pp wk(A . 2009) p -y w- w M GDP p p.

17T Sy L. E K L. Sk (1997) A,J, R (2002) w , w k pw 1500 1800, p y. D L (1969 . 45) p w -p Ep k p y w xp -q y x , p wy , p, y.


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, y p ( f p

w z w ).C 6 py w G p- y y , w

w z w 1792 1815. S p,

W R,

z . T p , w

w py p

p-1800 y . I 6, ( p p) jy f . I y , p F p y .

T p p 1750 1800 p -

- y w p,py . T w

k , 7 w w

z uj,1750(1750 f w p z f p) y . T x ( ) wy y px . N,

x pf . F xp, 1900 w 0.650( 0.362) w z y y jy f. C 8 xpy

p - k

Table 4Urbanization in Germany, Controls

Dp : Uz w E

WMk/R P L L

D

P

N

I-z

A-BGMM

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Y F p 0.565 0.547 0.600 0.435 0.446 0.531 0.458 1750 [0.281] [0.308] [0.356] [0.244] [0.278] [0.294] [0.267]

Y F p 0.324 0.336 0.356 0.256 0.244 0.288 0.209 0.0520 1800 [0.249] [0.295] [0.324] [0.215] [0.248] [0.264] [0.245] [0.126]

Y F p 0.235 0.229 0.261 0.0182 0.0269 0.114 0.136 0.372 1850 [0.275] [0.310] [0.356] [0.210] [0.242] [0.257] [0.261] [0.379]

Y F p 0.324 0.353 0.292 0.623 0.561 0.374 0.418

1875 [0.324] [0.312] [0.374] [0.250] [0.271] [0.305] [0.284]

Y F p 0.552 0.573 0.512 0.893 0.836 0.656 0.650 1.249

1900 [0.411] [0.370] [0.451] [0.321] [0.325] [0.382] [0.363] [0.713]

L z 0.955[1.345]

O 68 74 74 74 74 74 74 35

N 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

p- jf 1800

0.128 0.0705 0.176 0.0791 0.0625 0.0959 0.109 0.0312

p- jf

0.0217 0.414 0.0222 0.0815 0.0267 0.123

Notes: A y y . R y y. A w y pp 1750. C 26 (P, , -, P, py , z 1750) w .


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. T y, Gz

M M (GMM) y y M A Sp R.B (1991). W p 1875 p w q . T y OLS ; p

f. A wy pf w f

px qy p y F.

W f p y.

C.Additional Outcome Variables

I p z

, T 5 w p p py-

. D 64 Gy

y 1849, 1882, 1895, 1907. T

k z ,

y p

. T , 1849, w

k p p 1800. G k

1800, w py p - :

(2) yjt = dt + t Ij + jt,

t. Hyjt ( -y/) j t, dtw y-pf ,Ij p y F p j, jt , t f . I p, t p - w F .

T T 5 w , w E w -

p, w y py

Table 5Occupational Shares in Germany

Dp : pppy

Dp : pppy y

W E A W E A

W Uw W W Uw W

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Y F p, 0.430 0.411 0.508 0.055 0.061 0.3741849 [0.468] [0.460] [0.346] [0.376] [0.342] [0.369]

Y F p, 0.450 0.486 0.585 0.420 0.386 0.5941882 [0.285] [0.244] [0.253] [0.256] [0.240] [0.267]

Y F p, 0.570 0.601 0.658 0.472 0.449 0.6401895 [0.266] [0.242] [0.182] [0.248] [0.231] [0.222]

Y F p, 0.554 0.585 0.724 0.350 0.321 0.5701907 [0.281] [0.264] [0.237] [0.284] [0.251] [0.237]

Notes: E p - . D . R . A w y pp 1849. N (-/w E): 39/23 (1849), 62/44 ( y).


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p y F y 1849, y -

f. Ty y f y 1882

1908. T p

z , w p z

w f F p .

IV. Institutional Reforms and Economic Growth

I , w f w

G p p w F p ( ) , f k w F - w . W p

f w- q (2SLS) y, w w x w y.

T 2SLS y . F, w p

k w w y. S,

- f p p,

B p P E, w

, p p z p

F Ep. T 2SLS w

y p. T, y w f

w w j yp F

p wk py y .

A. French Occupation and Institutional Reorms

T 1 F 1 p x -p w y F p. T

z p w x F p

y wy f 2SLS y, w

p w p q:

(3) Rjt = dt + j + t Tt>1800 Ij + jt,

wRjt x pyj t; dt j py fx ; ,Ij , y F

p, jt . T Tt>1800 y p-1800 (1850, 1875, 1900), t Tt>1800 1800 ( q 0 ).18 Iy, p py F p,

x w . T p

Gy, w F p , y

1800, p Gy.

18T py p f, t y 1,000.


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E q (3) w p B T 6. T f ,

p w E pp 1750 w, w p w F p x.

T f 1.166 ( = 0.107). T p w G p y

F (pp z), p y Fw f . C 2 p F p

t Tt>1800 Ijw y (1850 ) w y F p p p- j f- . T pf pp yp

k w F p (p- = 0.000).Fy, 35 f y k pf w pp-

w w Gy E p. T f y .

B. Two-Stage Least Squares Estimates

W x 2SLS x z-

. W p w - q:

(4) ujt = dt + j + Rjt + jt,

Table 6Urbanization in Germany, Impact of Reforms

Dp : z

W E A

WW,

Uw W Uw

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Panel A. OLS estimationR x 0.281 0.281 0.220 0.268 0.191

[0.114] [0.114] [0.122] [0.110] [0.105]

Panel B. First stage

F p p1800 1.166 1.116 1.006 0.960 [0.107] [0.143] [0.108] [0.145]

F- x 119.7 121.6 61.85 87.57 43.71

p- F- 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Panel C. 2SLS estimation

R x 0.291 0.321 0.204 0.284 0.193

[0.102] [0.112] [0.124] [0.112] [0.143]

O 74 74 69 109 109

N 13 13 12 19 19

p- f 0.328

Notes: A y y . R y y.W w y pp 1750. T f 2 Y F p y x .


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w ujt z, dt j py fx .T (4) (3) f- p w

T 6. P A w OLS p p. I OLS,

p f w x z

pf p T 6.

P B p 2SLS (4). F p, 1 w = 0.290 ( = 0.102), w y f.Iy, f OLS , w

ky p OLS

. T f , w

w pw . T y p

w , pp p F , p

ww . T OLS f j -

(ww) , x w , py, x y pxy

k .

C 2 p, w

p-1800 (.., post

d Ij q(1), w post 1850, 1875, 1900) . T y f , , w -

, w p f

jy . Ey, j

f . Ey, w w

j yp p-1800 w F

p wk py y x ( F p). T p f-

, w H-W - x w , p k

yp. Tp- f (F-) p w w y j - yp. T

pp p F p p z

G p y y

p.

C 3 1, w w -

. T 2SLS w , 0.204, w ,

f y 10 p. I 4 5, w p

E, 2SLS f y p

1 3.O y w p

p y F f

p wy p p, py

y.

V. Concluding Remarks

T F R 1789 px p ,

, . T p p


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F : F y , Np,

p Ep, Gy, w y k

y p, , F.

Hw, w xp p -

. T p - q F

R, p q- xp.

W f w F p xp

p p. O y, p p

w px y z w

y F R, py 1850. W

p py -

F p w ky

R. T f y y p

pp p F R, py

p q .

S xy p -

. T F R xp -,

. I , f pp y

p p. M p,

w w xy p, , B

B y . O y, pp

yp ancienrgime, p

, , k qy w,

p ppy,

p wy z w.

Ny, f p w -. F, w p y p

y F R y , p

f y pf. S, y w

. T, p wy

xp .19 N, wy f -

- f q,

x. T , , q: wy

y wk w xy p ? O py

w w ypy .20

T F y y wk pw-

, k q y p. Ew p pw 1815, w p

p q. T p F

w pw xp Gy Jp

19M, p F p - w, w y w w y w p y , y - -, , py, F p j .

20S A R (2008) w p.


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w y , xp.21 N, w

p y p

F R, w w

w w xy p

p

p wk.

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