The connected consumer: a snapshot of global consumer ... · a snapshot of global consumer...
Transcript of The connected consumer: a snapshot of global consumer ... · a snapshot of global consumer...
The connected consumer: a snapshot of global consumer megatrends
Consumers hold the key to the red meat industry’s prosperity
Michael CrowleyPCA General Manager, MLA
1. Global demand2. Supply3. Headwinds4. How to compete
Australia's place in the world
17%
US
Brazil
EU
IndiaArgentina
Mexico
Other
3%
US
Brazil
EU
ChinaIndia
ArgentinaMexico
Other
Global production Exports
Source: FAOSTAT, OECD-FAO
<Boxed beef>
We are a small producer with a large global presence
Our national export destination mix is changing
US Japan South Korea China Indonesia Other
In 2004-05, top two markets accounted for 82% of exports
In 2018-19, top two accounted for 47% -and 53% went to the rest of the world
Source: DAWR
Our mix of destinations is changing and expanding
All competition is not equal
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
A$/k
g
Source: GTA
Average beef export prices ($/kg)
The gap between premium and commodity is widening
Global market overview: export value
Total exportsA$10.1billion
Strong demand from global markets
North America
A$1.90b
North AsiaA$5.27b
A$293m
EU
A$264m
MENAA$273mA$8.4m Southern Asia
A$835mA$1.01b
Australia
A$8.53b*
Source: GTA, ABS, DAWR and MLA estimates, 2018 CY*please note the Australian figure is calculated using average retail price, whereas export figures are wholesale
Annual slaughter increased 3% to 8.1m head in 2019
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts.
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
f
2020
f
2021
f
2022
f
Mill
ion
head Slaughter Live Export
Slaughter Live exports
2018 7.87 1.092019 8.10 1.15
2020f 6.90 0.902021f 7.15 0.902022f 7.50 0.95
(million head)
Herd liquidation continues with high female slaughter
Source: ABS
37%
39%
41%
43%
45%
47%
49%
51%
53%
55%
57%
59%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Female percentage of kill
Female % of slaughter Rolling 12 month average Long run average
Herd to fall to 26m head by June 2019
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts.
24
25
26
27
28
29
3019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
e
2020
f
2021
f
2022
f
Mill
ion
head
NOTE: June herd estimates
Average herd size 2000-2018:28m head
Record numbers on feed maintain production
Source: MLA/ALFA
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Head
on
feed
(‘00
0s)
June quarter 2019: 1.15 million
head on feed
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
m to
nnes
Global beef demand is forecast to grow, but there are headwinds
Forecast
Global beef consumption African Swine Fever
Economic expansion slowing
China-US trade war
Brexit
Source: OECD-FAO
Global trade: heading in the right direction?
Competition is intensifying
Indonesia issues 100,000 tonnes of
Indian buffalo meat permits
China lifts ban on meat imports in boost for Brazil
A wall of US meat, or a tidal wave?
Brexit: the uncertainty continues
Industry taskforces prepare for headwinds– in partnership with government
Source: Beyondmeat.com
New competitors: those mirroring meat are making claims against meat
Ground beef – USD $3.52 per pound
Memphis Meats meatball – USD $2,400 per pound
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Dec 2017; Forbes January 2018. Image sources: Alpha Stock Images - http://alphastockimages.com; Forbes.com
Lab grown protein is the other alternate emerging
The global market is big
China1,435m
26m
US339m
Japan126m
Korea52m
Indonesia280m
6m
34m10m
36m
EU443mUK
68m
MalaysiaSaudi Arabia
UAE
AustraliaSingapore
39m Canada
Our production can't meet the demand of 6.5 billion people
Source: Fitch Solutions, 2023 forecast
Households earning a disposable income above US$35,000 (2023 forecast)
China33.3m
11m
US103m
Japan39m
Korea18m
2m
2m1m
EU117m
UK26m
MalaysiaSaudi Arabia
UAE
AustraliaSingapore
12m Canada
3m Indonesia
‘Ability to purchase’ is a better indicator
2m
Source: Fitch Solutions, 2023 forecast
We have a more premium consumer
Channel: where does our consumer purchase beef?
City
Country
Consumer: who is our consumer?
There are markets within markets
We need to focus our efforts, deeper than thinking about a whole country
Australian beef has a clear target consumer
Beef
Australian beef
Imported beef
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Bangkok
Ho Chi Minh City
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Eaten imported beef at least once a week
City Average City Wealthy
Source: MLA/GlobalData ASEAN Attractive Cities Study
Community engagement
Direct consumer advertising