The Community Earth System Model (CESM)€¦ · The Community Earth System Model (CESM) David...
Transcript of The Community Earth System Model (CESM)€¦ · The Community Earth System Model (CESM) David...
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David Lawrence
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) David Lawrence
with thanks to Jim Hurrell and Peter Gent
current and former chairs of CESMcurrent and former chairs of CESM
Climate and Global Dynamics DivisionNCAR Earth System Laboratory
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What is the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Project?
• Project to develop and utilize a comprehensive model to:o Investigate and predict seasonal
and interannual variability in the and interannual variability in the climate
o Explore the history of Earth’s climateclimate
o Estimate future of environment for policy formulation
• Collaborations are critical:• Collaborations are critical:o Developed jointly by NCAR,
National Labs and Universities • Provide support for climate modeling:Provide support for climate modeling:
o fully documented and freely available model (portable)
o model datao model datao training
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Why so much effort to keep improving our collective ability to model Earth’s climate?
“Prediction is [very] difficult, especially of the future” (Niels Bohr) ( )
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Community Earth System Model (CESM1)
Core is a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land- Sea Ice model (CCSM4)
• 0.5o, 1o , 2o, T31 resolutions
• 30 minute time step
• 26 atmosphere levels
• 60 ocean levels
• 15 ground layers
• ~5 million grid boxes at 1o
• ~1.5 million lines of computer code
• Archive data (monthly, daily, hourly) for hundreds of geophysical fields (over 250 in hundreds of geophysical fields (over 250 in land model alone)
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Configuration of CCSM4
AtmosphereCAM 4
CouplerCPL 7
Sea IceCICE 4
LandCLM 4
OceanOceanPOP 2
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CCSM4: 1o resolution; Tsurf, clouds, P
animation courtesy ETH Zurich
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History of Climate Model to Earth System Model Developmenthttp://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm
2000s 2010
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Configuration of CCSM4
AtmosphereCAM 4
CouplerCPL 7
Sea IceCICE 4
LandCLM 4
OceanOceanPOP 2
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CESM1 (Coupled modeling framework)
AtmosphereCAM 4, CAM5, WACCM,
F t Ch F ll ChFast Chem, Full Chem
CouplerCPL 7
Sea IceCICE 4
LandCLM 4
SP CN CNDV
Ocean
SP, CN, CNDV
OceanPOP 2Ecosys
Land iceCISM
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CESM1 (Coupled modeling framework)
AtmosphereCAM 4, CAM5, WACCM,
F t Ch F ll ChFast Chem, Full Chem
CouplerCPL 7
Sea IceCSIM 4
LandCLM 4
SP CN CNDV
Ocean
SP, CN, CNDV
OceanPOP 2Ecosys
Land iceCISM
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CESM StructureCESM Structure
CESM Scientific Steering Committee
CESM Advisory BoardCESM Management
Working GroupsDevelopmentApplication
Land Ice
Land Ice
AtmModel
AtmModel
Ocean Model Ocean Model
Land ModelLand Model
Polar ClimatePolar
ClimateBioGeoChem
BioGeoChem
Chem-ClimateChem-Climate WACCMWACCM
P l Cli tP l Cli t
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Climate VariabilityClimate Variability
PaleoClimatePaleoClimate
Software EngineeringSoftware Engineering
CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundationand the Department of Energy
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CESM: A Community Resource
Model data: Over 3,000 sites from 130+ countries> 230 Tb since 2005
Model code: Over 1100 downloads since April 2010Courtesy Gary Strand
Model code: Over 1100 downloads since April 2010
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CCSM / CESM Publications
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CMIP-5 Simulations• CESM and partners will make a major contribution to IPCC AR5 through simulations performed with CCSM4.0 and CESM1.0
• CMIP-5 Experimental Design (Taylor et al. 2009):
A set of coordinated climate model experiments to: address outstanding scientific questions from AR4g q improve understanding of climate variability/change provide estimates of future climate change useful to
those considering its possible consequences
• CMIP-5 is a 5-year experimental design, but a significant fraction of the experiments will be done in time to be included in AR5
those considering its possible consequences
experiments will be done in time to be included in AR5
Initialized decadal prediction and long-term climate change Includes carbon cycle, paleoclimate, whole atmosphere, and land ice
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CMIP5 Long-term Climate Change Experiments• All Core + Most Tier
l t d t NCAR
ensembles: AMIP & 20 C
completed at NCAR(> 11M GAU used)(~500 Tb history output)
• Began in Sept 2009
Control, AMIP, & 20 C
RCP4.5, RCP8.5
• Began in Sept 2009
• Experiments with:o CAM4o CAM5
RCP8.5Control & 20 C
1%/yr CO2 (140 yrs)
o CAM5o CAM-CHEMo WACCM
• 1 000 yr controlsabrupt 4XCO2 (150 yrs)fixed SST with 1x & 4xCO2
• 1,000 yr controls
• Ensembles: o Historicalo RCPso RCPs
• High-frequency outputo Controlo Historical
Coupled carbon-cycle models
o RCPs
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Have GCMs actually been getting any better?
Reichler et al., 2008, BAMS
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Selected Results• Pre industrial controls (CCSM4 and CESM1)• Pre-industrial controls (CCSM4 and CESM1)1850 conditions, multi-century, mostly 1º resolution some comparisons to 1870 CCSM3 (T85) some comparisons to 1870 CCSM3 (T85)
• 20th century transient simulations 1850-2005, some ensembles, mostly 1º resolutiony some comparisons to CCSM3 (1870-1999; T85)
• Observations (best available, common periods)
• Mean and Variability
Good and Bad• Good and Bad
• Details and more results in CCSM4 and CESM1 Journal of Climate Special Collections (~65 papers)Journal of Climate Special Collections (~65 papers)
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SST Biases(Pre-Industrial) CCSM4 (2º)CCSM3
mean = 0.30oCrms = 1.46oC
mean = -0.76oCrms = 1.57oC
CCSM4 (1º)
mean = 0.07oC rms = 1 11oC
Overall reduction SST bias, all basins
rms = 1.11 C
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Equatorial Pacific SST(Late 20th Century)
Observations CCSM4 CCSM3
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Equatorial Pacific SST(Late 20th Century)
Observations CCSM4 CCSM3
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JFM Arctic Sea Ice (Late 20th Century)
CCSM4(%) ExtentCCSM3 CCSM4-CCSM3
(m) Thickness
SSM/I
(m) Thickness
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Incoming Shortwave Radiation(Differences from SHEBA Observations)
CCSM4 (1980-1999)CCSM3 (1980-1999)
* SHEBA Observations
CCSM3 biascompensated by unrealistically lowunrealistically low
ice albedos
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Antarctic sea ice cover(Late 20th Century)
JAS JFMCCSM4
(%)
Too extensive, similar to CCSM3
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CCSM4 GRACE
Land water storage (MAM-SON)CCSM4 GRACE
CCSM3
GRACE satellite measures small G C sate te easu es s achanges in gravity which on
seasonal timescales are due to variations in mean soil and snowvariations in mean soil and snow
water content. CLM4 has improved capacity to store water
from one season to the next300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 (mm)
from one season to the next
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Land surface temperature (annual)(Differences from Observations: 1950-99)( )
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Total Precipitation(Annual)(Annual)
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Total Precipitation Difference(Annual)(Annual)
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Total Precipitation Difference(Annual)(Annual)
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Total Precipitation Difference(Annual)(Annual)
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Tropical Land Precipitation (Frequency of Daily Rate)
CCSM3: too few strong rainfall events
CCSM4: moreCCSM4: morerealistic extremes
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High Latitude SLP (DJF)
Observed CCSM3 CCSM4
Systematic Reduction in North yAtlantic and North Pacific
biases
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High Latitude SLP (DJF)
ObservedCESM
CCSM3
Systematic Reduction in North
CESM
CESMyAtlantic and North Pacific
biases
CESM(CAM5)
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VariabilityVariability
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Leading Mode of Global SST VariabilityObservations CCSM3
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Leading Mode of Global SST VariabilityObservations CCSM4
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North Atlantic VariabilityObservations CCSM4
NAO
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L l ti f 20 100 d b d filt d i it ti d 850 b l i d
Intraseasonal Variability
Observed (GPCP,ERA40) CCSM4 CCSM3 (T85)
Lag correlation of 20-100 day band pass filtered precipitation and 850-mb zonal wind
( , ) CCSM4 CCSM3 (T85)
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20th Century and CliFuture Climate
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Global Temperature(1850-2005)
CCSM4.0 1.2ºC
CESM1.0 (WACCM)
0.8ºC
Observations
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3.20ᵒC in CCSM4 at 1o; 2.86oC in CCSM3 at T85
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Due primarily to decline in negative lapse-rate feedback and an increase in positive shortwave cloud feedback
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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
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Simulation of the 20th and 21st CenturiesAnnual Global Mean Surface T (ºC)Annual Global Mean Surface T ( C)
(anomaly from 1980-99)
RCP8.5RCP6.0RCP4.5RCP4.5RCP2.620th Century
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20th Century Surface Temperature Change
Ave. = 0.48
OBSERVATIONS
Warming too strong in CCSM4.0
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Projected # of Days of Extreme Heat (RCP8.5)
Peacock, 2011
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September Arctic Sea Ice Extent
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Seasonally Frozen Ground
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Earth System Model f C SFeatures of CESM1
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Total aerosol change (optical depth)
Anthropogenic Aerosol Affects: CESM1 (CAM5)(late 20th century relative to pre-industrial climate)
Increased aerosol burdens in SE Asia, Europe, NE North America, Brazil
Cloud water droplet number concentration (#/cc) at 850 hPa
Increased cloud droplet number concentration; strongest over land
f( )
Low cloud affects: net cooling over 20th century
Increased numbers of smaller drops; thus brighter low clouds with more liquid
Liquid water path (g/m2)
Low cloud affects: net cooling over 20 century
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20th Century Surface Temperature Change
Ave. = 0.48
W k i i CESM1 0 (CAM5)
OBSERVATIONS
Weaker warming in CESM1.0 (CAM5) –Note preliminary version of CAM5
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New Capability: Urban Modeling
Present day Urban Heat Island (UHI) simulated by Community Land Model Urban (CLMU) (ᵒC)
CLM4 includes a representation of urban processes; global simulation ofprocesses; global simulation of urban environments incl. T of cities.
The UHI describes the fact that urban areas are generally warmer than surrounding rural areasareas.
More directly evaluate projected changes in urban hheat stress
Oleson, K.W., G.B. Bonan, J. Feddema, M. Vertenstein, C.S.B. Grimmond, 2008a, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.Oleson, K.W., G.B. Bonan, J. Feddema, M. Vertenstein, 2008b, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.
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CESM1.0 (BGC) SimulationsSurface CO2 Concentration
ppm
v500+ yr Pre-industrial Control
p
Surface CO2 Concentration
CESM (BGC)
Cumulative CO2 Surface Flux
Fossil Fuel EmissionsNet
pmv
CESM (BGC)OBS
PgC
NetOceanLand (No LCLUC)Land
p
1850-2005
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Paleoclimate: Late Permian continents
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Simulation with CCSM3: Ocean barotropicstreamfunction (Kiehl and Shields 2005)streamfunction (Kiehl and Shields, 2005)
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An ice sheet model in CESMC it I Sh t M d l (Gli CISM)• Community Ice Sheet Model (Glimmer-CISM)
• Currently Glimmer-CISM 1.6 (shallow-ice dynamics)• Glimmer-CISM 2.0 (higher-order dynamics) to be added soon• Greenland grids at 5, 10, and 20 km are supported.Greenland grids at 5, 10, and 20 km are supported.
• CESM also includes a new surface mass balance scheme for ice sheets in CLM.• The surface mass balance is computed on the global land grid, then sent to
Glimmer-CISM and downscaled to the local ice sheet gridGlimmer-CISM and downscaled to the local ice sheet grid.
Left: Greenland SMB from CESM: CLM on 1o grid forced by CAM output, downscaled to 10-km ice sheet grid
Right: Greenland SMB from high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO; Ettema et al. 2009)
Red net accumulationRed = net accumulationBlue = net ablation
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Superfast Chemistry in CESM
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Final Thoughts
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Some Upcoming Challenges
• Incorporation of vast array of new capabilities and parameterizations provided by the community (e.g., isotopes, super parameterization embedded cloud resolving model super-parameterization – embedded cloud resolving model, global methane cycle, …)
• Regional refined grids (NRCM and static regionally refined meshes)
• Extending data assimilation capability
I i f h k f h di i• Incorporation of hooks for human dimensions
• Improved validation metrics, benchmarking
• Post processing data management• Post-processing – data management
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Thanks and Get Involved!
• CESM Workshop every June in Breckenridge
• Working group meetings in Winter every year
• Model development discussions
• Download and analyze CESM output
• CCSM4 CMIP5 data will be posted to Earth System Grid ~May 25
Download and run the model and do great science with it!• Download and run the model and do great science with it!
• Sign up for CESM and/or Working group email lists (see www cesm ucar edu)www.cesm.ucar.edu)
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CSM 1 was the first climate model to produce a non-drifting control run without “flux corrections”non drifting control run without flux corrections
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Decadal ForecastsDecadal Forecasts
• For forecasts need to initialize the ocean component.
• Use an ocean and sea ice hindcast from 1950 2005• Use an ocean and sea ice hindcast from 1950 – 2005 forced by best estimate of atm forcing from reanalysis.
• Run ocean component alone forced by atm reanalysis, but assimilating ocean temp and salinity observations.
• This is new, and more deep ocean obs after ~2003 from ARGO floats trying to initialize N Atlantic MOC.from ARGO floats trying to initialize N Atlantic MOC.
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No Overflows
Atlantic MOC in CCSM4(Late 20th Century)
With OverflowsNo Overflows With Overflows
CCSM3
Sv Sv
mean = 1.41oCrms = 1 49oC
mean = 1.07oCrms = 1 18oCrms = 1.49 C rms = 1.18 C
T (2649 m)( )
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Land ice sheet model developmentA CESM l l t i 2010 ill i l d Gli CISMA CESM release later in 2010 will include Glimmer-CISM 2.0, with “higher-order” ice dynamics valid in all parts of an ice sheet (including ice streams, ice shelves)( g )
L ft G l dLeft: Greenland surface velocities (on a log scale) from a higher order versionhigher-order version of Glimmer-CISM
Right: Target velocities based on observations
Red = fast (~3 km/yr)( y )Blue = slow (~30 m/yr)
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North Pacific Decadal Variability
Observations CCSM4
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Initialized (Decadal) Predictions with CCSM4
North Atlantic SST RMS Error (North of 30ºN)North Atlantic SST RMS Error (North of 30ºN)
20th CenturySi l tiSimulation
Initialized OceanDART
Anderson et al (2009)Anderson et al. (2009)
Persistence of large-scale SST bias reductionPersistence of large scale SST bias reduction Steve Yeager et al. (2010)