The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE
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The Coming Famine: risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Nuffield International Conference Adelaide, September 30, 2011
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The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Nuffield International Conference Adelaide, September 30, 2011. Food demand doubles by 2060s. Global food demand. A ‘wicked’ problem. DEMAND: 242,000 more people every day More babies + longer lives - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE
The Coming Famine: risks and opportunities for global food security
Julian Cribb FTSENuffield International Conference
Adelaide, September 30, 2011
Food demand doubles by 2060s
Global food demand
A ‘wicked’ problem....
DEMAND:242,000 more people every dayMore babies + longer livesPopulation >10-11 bnFood demand soars in emerging
economies>600 petacalories/day
Total food demand to double by 2060s
CONSTRAINTS:‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’‘R&D drought’‘Capital drought’‘Climate extinction’
Peak water
Disappearing rivers Vanishing lakes
Groundwater mining
Shrinking glaciers
“Current estimates indicate we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in
25 years time...” – Colin Chartres, IWMI
Food embodies water...Total human water use:
7450 cubic kmsWe each use 1240t/yrIn a lifetime, we use:
100,000 tonnes
Peak Land : 2001
1% of the world’s land is being lost each year.3Peak land: FAO
24% of the world’s land is now degraded
4.8
4.85
4.9
4.95
Area per person
Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...7.7 billion will live in citiesTotal urban area = ChinaUrban water use 2800 cu kmsCities cannot feed themselves
By 2030...
Nutrients are finite…
5 Nutrientpollution
Peak phosphorus 5
5 World P reserves
The Great Waste
5 Food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)
Peak Oil
Peak oil: 2006 Predicted Fossil Fuel Availability
Algae farms for biodiesel?
Food & oil prices are in lockstep
Peak fish: 2004
“The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached .”
- FAO
Climate instability
5 4x more drought
Global soil moisture forecast 4
Scientific consensus: 15-25% less food
Knowledge drought
35 R&D stagnation
Capital droughtDoubling food production requires $90bn+ a year for 50
years: FAODeclining market power of farmers due to supply chain
globalisationDisplacement of > 1.5 billion small farmers> Need to rethink the economics of agriculture> need to change the consumer signal to encourage new
investment, sustainable systems, conservation of land, water, crops etc
The food challenge
Double global food output with:- half the present fresh water- far less land- no fossil fuels (eventually)- scarce and very costly fertilisers- less technology- insufficient investment- more drought, heat & floods.
Future conflicts
UK Ministry of Defence threat assessment
Government failures
▲ Egypt’s regime change began with food price protests
Food prices peak twice in three years. The ‘Coming Famine’ is a succession of shocks 6
Migrant tsunamiEach year:Refugees - 43m Migrants - 205m
Big challenges=
Huge opportunities‘When the going gets tough, the tough get going’
Solutions 1: reinvent food Reinvent farming & food systems:
sustainable, low-input eco-farming Reinvent the global diet:
kills fewer people, damages less planet
Reinvent cities: to recycle water, nutrients, energy
Solutions 2Double food R&D to $80bn globally a year
(from $1.6 Tr weapons’ spend)Invest $80bn to share the food knowledge
among farmers, cooks, consumersInvest $90bn+ a year in new farm & grazing
systemsEnd waste: recycle all organic waste and
water into new food & resource industriesEducate people to respect and value food.
Urban farming
Biocultures
New diet: 23,000 edible plants
Rehydrate, revegetate, recarbonise
Solutions: A Food YearA Food Year in every junior school on the
planetTeach new respect for food: how to eat for
health and sustainability
OR
? ?
Averting the Coming FamineDevelop eco-farming: more food with less
water, energy, soil, chemicalsDesign diets for health and sustainabilityCreate cities that recycle water, nutrients
into novel food systemsInspire civilisation with a new ethos and
respect for foodReward farmers for their stewardship of
the Earth’s resources.
Debate global food security on: www.sciencealert.com.au/global-
Thank you
“The Coming Famine” is published by the University of
California Press and CSIRO Publishing.
It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia.
https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine
Follow The WorldFood Daily on http://paper.li/ComingFamine/1307825702
