Snowdon & Associates Inc.

The changing landscape of higher education in Canada

Canadian Association of University Business Officers

Halifax, 2003

Ken Snowdon

This presentation includes speaking notes that

can be viewed in powerpoint.

Outline

• The Challenge - demography and participation rates

• Student expectations…

• Developments….

• Looking to the future

The Challenge….

• greatest enrolment increase since the 1960’s-70’s - “echo boom”

• providing opportunity for all who are qualified• against a background of:

– replacement and expansion of an aging professoriate

– ambitious research and innovation agenda

– intense competition for public resources

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FT Enrolment Participation Rate

DemographicsDemographics, Participation and EnrolmentRevised MTCU Projection (2002)

14.8%

21.7%

26.6%

8.5% 18-24 Population

Revised Projected

“ Boomers”

“Echo”

Actual Projected

Youth population growth will vary widely over the next decade

Canada

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Ontario

Quebec

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Projections 2001-2011

Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10)

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Enrolment demand fuelled by….

• ‘echo boom’ • increased participation rates

– more university educated parents– greater interest in economic and social benefits of a university

education– labour market demand and better employment opportunities for

university educated employees – federal gov’t innovation agenda and reliance on highly qualified

personnel– heightened recognition of the advantages of university education

AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002

Participation Rates...

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: OECD Education Database 2002, data represents 1998-99 AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002

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The fastest growing occupations require the most education

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Natural and Applied Sciences

Professional Occupations in Business and Finance

Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

Social Science, Education, Government & Religion

Sales and Service Occupations

Health Occupations

Management Occupations

Trades & Transport, Primary, Mfg & Processing

All Occupations

Growth in full-time employment, 1990 to 2001 Proportion with a university degree, 2001

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10)

Student Expectations

• Two-thirds of high school graduates want to obtain a university degree (Youth in Transition - 2002)

• Actual participation of 18-21 year olds is about 20-25%

• There is clearly room for more participation especially as graduation rates increase

• Increased expectations for Special Ed students– Ontario - $1.4 Billion per year in Special Ed funding

– increased by a further $250 million

Student expectations...

Intended Degree2002 1998

Bachelors (excl. Law, Ed, Med) 19.5% 19.6%Masters (excl. MBA) 17.8% 18.8%MBA 10.2% 10.5%Doctorate 10.5% 10.7%Medical 10.7% 11.0%Law 6.3% 5.8%Teaching 7.4% 4.9%Don't Know 17.7% 15.5%

Student expectations...Intended Degree Actual Degrees

2002 1998 # 1998 % 1998

Bachelors (excl. Law, Ed, Med) 19.5% 19.6% 45,405 69.5%Masters (excl. MBA) 17.8% 18.8% 6,715 10.3%MBA 10.2% 10.5% 2,043 3.1%Doctorate 10.5% 10.7% 1,547 2.4%Medical 10.7% 11.0% 685 1.0%Law 6.3% 5.8% 1,615 2.5%Teaching 7.4% 4.9% 5,959 9.1%Don't Know 17.7% 15.5%

65,369 100.0%

Source:

COU / Acumen, University Applicant Survey, 2002

COU, Facts and Figures, 2000 Table 3.6.4

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002e 2005e 2008e 2011e

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Historical data

Projection scenario 1: limited growth

Projection scenario 2: stronger growth

Demand for full-time enrolment is expected to increase rapidly

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Meeting the demand...

• Capacity constraints…government funding policy has always been a limiting factor

• AUCC projects a required increase of over $6 Billion (60%) in overall funding across Canada to support growth and quality improvements by 2011.

• To simply ‘fund’ 100,000 more students in Ontario, the operating ‘price tag’ is about $1.4 Billion - and that is without any ‘quality’ improvements.

• IF ‘broadening’ participation involves more public investment, that simply adds to the cost...

• Government(s) will look to other options….

Changing landscape…developments in play

• College / University Collaborative Degrees• College / University articulation agreements• Expanded distance education offerings from various

jurisdictions and numerous universities• Private ‘for profits’ begin to operate in Canada –

University of Phoenix – Vancouver BC• New College (CAAT’s) Charter (Ontario)• University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT)• Increased recruitment among provinces• applied degrees for colleges• Increased emphasis on PSE ‘transfer’ protocols

Bill 132 – Post-Secondary Choice and Excellence Act, 2000 Ontario

• Allows 3 year ‘pilot’ program of applied degrees for colleges ( 8 new programs per year)

• Allows private universities to operate in Ontario• Allows universities from other jurisdictions to

locate into Ontario• Establishes the Postsecondary Education Quality

Assessment Board as the “quality control” agency• Minister has increased degree granting authority

Applied Degrees and Private Institutions in Alberta

• 27 Applied degrees approved (2003)

• Private Colleges Accreditation Board (1984) Alberta– Gov’t 1998 removed condition of affiliation

with existing university– 2001 DeVry Calgary Institute of Technology

2003/04 – 2005/06 SERVICE PLAN

Ministry of Advanced Education BC

“Encouraging a strong private post-secondary educationsector is an integral part of government’s commitment to access andchoice in education. New initiatives, such as the passage of the DegreeAuthorization Act, were undertaken over the past year to ensure moreopportunities and choice for students, and provide a more level playingfield for private institutions.

• two academic degree granting institutions with separate Acts, 10 private theological colleges with individual Acts, 15 out-of-country degree granting institutions

• private bill establishes Sea to Sky University as a private not-for-profit university

Realities…..

• Quality Assessment Board - looked to UK for “degree level standards”

• Notable absence of ‘quality standards’ in Canada

• October 2002, workshop for ‘private applicants’ to QAB - 50 organizations

• private universities are part of higher ed in many countries

• For profit higher education is growth industry in the U.S.

Update +9.5% in 1st Q03

The future….

• Increased interest in higher education

• ‘opening up’ the higher education sector– private non-profits

– private “for profits”

– ‘publics’ from other jurisdictions

– amalgamations / mergers

– branch campuses

– college role as “feeders”

– ‘accreditation’ issues

• programs for students studying in other jurisdictions

• greater demand for graduate and professional education

Summary

• The anticipated growth over the next decade will fuel an expansion that, in terms of size, will be similar to the increase in the 1960’s-70’s … and the ‘demand’ may be substantially higher

• That demand will result in an expansion of the existing university system AND an “opening up” of the system

• Provincial Government funding will be constrained - and aimed at access

• Government will look for and encourage other options

Conclusions

• The scramble for public investment will continue

• The federal gov’t will continue to invest in selective ways –leading to greater ‘tiering’ among the public universities

• Private universities will emerge to fill lucrative ‘niche’ markets

• University community needs to be aware of these developments and be prepared to compete and deal with new PSE ‘entities’.