The Changing Face of Washington ’ s Families
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The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA [email protected] ; [email protected] Leading Wisely, Living Well Retreat for Administrators of Washington Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA
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The Changing Face of Washington ’ s Families. Leading Wisely, Living Well Retreat for Administrators of Washington Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA. Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Changing Face of Washington ’ s Families
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The Changing Face of Washington’s Families
Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D.Professor Emeritus, Washington State UniversityOlympia, WA [email protected]; [email protected]
Leading Wisely, Living WellRetreat for Administrators of Washington
Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA
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Major Trends in Washington• Continued Growth
• Increasing Diversity
• Aging
• Increasing Income Inequality
• Education
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Population Growth WA State1980 – 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ions
Projected population
Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/stfc/default.asp
Net Migration and Natural IncreaseWashington State: 1960-2010
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Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/trends/population/fig301.asp
Increasing Diversity
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% White (not Hispanic/Latino) Washington State: 1980 – 2008
Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf and 2010 Census
Increasing Diversity: Immigration
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Percent Foreign Born: Washington 1980 – 2007
* ± 0.2% Data from American Community Survey
*
Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf
Increasing Diversity: Fertility
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Replac
emen
t
Total P
opula
tion
Whit
eBlac
k
America
n Ind
ian
Asian/P
acific
Islan
der
Hispan
ic0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2.1 2.11.8
2.11.8 1.9
2.8
Race/Ethnicity
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
eTotal Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity: US 2005
Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf
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Increasing Diversity: Age Structure
37.9
29.7 28.6
32.8
26.0
18.9
22.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
White Black NativeAmerican
Asian NHPI* 2 or moreRaces
Hispanic
Age
Non-Hispanic
*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander
Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf
Median Age
Increasing Diversity: Interactions
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Most immigrants are young adults who bring their children and their child bearing capacity with them.
Most child bearing occurs under 35
Child bearing patterns combined with age of immigrants and their slightly higher birth rates, means that the number of children from diverse backgrounds will continue to increase for many years to come.
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Aging: Baby Boom
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AgingGrowth in Population 65+ in WA State 2000 – 2030
11.2 11.4 12.013.8
15.918.0 19.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
Per
cent
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
Percent 65+ Number 65+
Num
ber
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Characteristics of Older Population• More likely to be female: 65+ = 57.4%, 85+ = 68.8%• Declining rates of poverty
11
15
911
14
7
18
13
-3-5
0
5
10
15
20
Persons Children Adults 65+
Perc
ent
Percent 1989 Percent 1999 Percent Change '89-'99
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Population Change 1990 and 2000Number in Age Group
Clallam Yakima
Age85 & over
80 to 8475 to 7970 to 7465 to 6960 to 6455 to 5950 to 5445 to 4940 to 4435 to 3930 to 3425 to 2920 to 2415 to 1910 to 14
5 to 9under 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Number in Thousands
19902000
Median Age 1990: 38.4 2000: 43.8 Median Age 1990: 31.5 2000: 31.2
Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB1944E.pdf
Age85 & over
80 to 8475 to 7970 to 7465 to 6960 to 6455 to 5950 to 5445 to 4940 to 4435 to 3930 to 3425 to 2920 to 2415 to 1910 to 14
5 to 9under 5
0 5 10 15 20 25Number in Thousands
19902000
U.S. GINI Index: 1947-2004
14
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002Year
GIN
I Ind
ex
Different data series
2008= 4.66
Gini Index: U.S. Other Post Indus.
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Australia Canada Germany Japan Sweden U.K U.S.0
10
20
30
40
50
35
3230
25 25
37
41
3132
27
38
23
35
45
≈ 1995≈ 2006
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2172.html
Gin
i Ind
ex
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EducationPercent of Washingtonians with a High School Diploma or Equivalent
Persons 25 and Over Persons 18 to 2465
70
75
80
85
90
95
83.8
77.7
87.1
75.3
89.4
82.6
1990 2000 2005-09
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EducationPercent of Washingtonians with a Bachelor’s Degree
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EducationWashington’s Rank Nationally in 2000
• Persons 25 and Over– With a High School Diploma 7th
– With a College Degree 10th
• Persons 18 to 24 – With a High School Diploma 34th
– With a College Degree 25th
– % Currently Enrolled in College 40th
• Measures for population of 25 and over influenced by:– Age specific migration trends– Past performance of educational system– Age structure of population
• Measures for 18- to 24-year-olds are a better indicator of current performance of higher education system
32.2
22.5
15.8
53.3
27.0
14.3
0
20
40
60
White Black AmericanIndian
Asian NHPI* Hispanic
Per
cent
*
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EducationPercent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by
Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000
Not Hispanic
*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander
32.2
22.5
15.8
53.3
27.0
14.3
0
20
40
60
White Black AmericanIndian
Asian NHPI* Hispanic
Per
cent
*
20
EducationPercent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by
Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000
Not Hispanic
*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander
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Education% 25 and over with BA Degree Washington 2005-09
Whi
te*
Bla
ck
Nat
ive
Am
Asi
an
Haw
aiia
n / P
I
2 or
mor
e
Latin
o
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
32.1
19.6
12.4
45.1
10.6
24.2
12.2
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Education/Poverty
22.6
10.88.3
4.4 3.2
0
10
20
30
Less thanHigh School
High SchoolGrad
Some Collegeor AA Degree
Bachelor'sdegree
Grad orProfessional
Degree
Educational Attainment
Per
cent
Percent of Persons 25 and over Living in Poverty by Educational Attainment, Washington State: 2005
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Implications• Continued population growth in state even with
economic downturn -- aging of baby boom, attractiveness of state, more diversified economy.
• Need for more schools, housing, utilities, roads/public transportation. Careful planning can minimize costs also need to insure that developers pay for costs of infrastructure and development.
• Rapid growth in “young old” (under 85) population likely to be dispersed, increased traffic congestion. Need growing for qualified health care and other workers experienced in working with older adults.
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Implications• All non-white populations younger than White (not
Hispanic) population and growing more rapidly. More non-whites replacing retiring White workers. But still have high rates of poverty, low levels of education for non-white families and children
• All children need quality education through high school, need to contain continually rising costs of college education.
• Increase in income inequality makes it more difficult to provide equal access to education for all income groups.
