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1 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

Political Implications of Shifting Demographics

By Patrick Oakford January 6 2015

In he wake o he 2012 presidenial elecion Republican eleced officials and conser-

vaive poliical pundis publicly bemoaned he paryrsquos ailure o connec wih and win

over voers o color Furhermore hey conceded ha a ailure o are beter wih his

demographic in uure elecions would carry dire elecoral consequences and doom he

GOPrsquos chances o winning back he Whie House1

Some may view he Republicansrsquo wide-spread success in he 2014 miderms as an indicaion ha he GOPrsquos concerns

immediaely ollowing he 2012 presidenial elecion are no longer applicable However

i shouldnrsquo be los on anyone ha miderm elecions have hisorically had low voer

urnou raes and ulimaely he voer makeup o he elecorae in miderm years has

been very differen han in a presidenial elecion Tereore he upcoming 2016 elec-

ion provides he firs es case o he Republicansrsquo pos-2012 elecion predicions

Since 2012 hese demographic challenges have only grown more acue As people o

color become an ever larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes he poliical implicaions or

boh paries comes ino even sharper ocus In 2016 o win he presidency991252as wellas many US Senae races991252candidaes will need o secure subsanial suppor rom

voers o color

Te demographic changes in he Unied Saes are ar rom being ully realized No

unil 2043 will people o color make up a majoriy o he US populaion2 Despie

he seemingly long rajecory o hese changes he poliical implicaions are already

being el in many saes By 2016 demographic shifs will be influenial in saes such

as Florida where voers o color are an increasingly significan share o he elecorae

as well as in saes such as Ohio where elecions are close and growh among voers o

color is rapidly oupacing he growh o he non-Hispanic whie elecorae

Tis issue brie idenifies wha he American elecorae is projeced o look like in

key batleground saes during he 2016 elecions and based on hose projecions

idenifies he poenial elecoral influence o voers o color Tis is accomplished by

esimaing he racial and ehnic makeup o he 2016 voer-eligible populaion and hen

demonsraing he poenial poliical impac o demographic changes by conducing

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2 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

wo elecion simulaions Te firs simulaion assumes ha across all racial and ehnic

groups voers urn ou a he same rae and have he same pary preerence as hey

did in 2012 In he second simulaion voer urnou raes are again held consan rom

2012 bu racial and ehnic groups are assumed o rever o he pary preerences hey

exhibied in 2004 Voer urnou raes are held consan rom 2012 so as o isolae he

elecoral impac o demographic changes a varying levels o pary preerence I urnou

raes among voers o color are higher in 2016 han hose used in hese simulaions henhe elecoral effecs will be greaer han hose presened here Conversely i urnou

raes all hen he magniude o he poliical effecs will be dampened

wo narraives regarding he 2016 elecions are already emerging around voers o

color Te firs soryline is ha he growing number o voers o color in batleground

saes such as Virginia and Ohio will provide Democras wih an elecoral windall and

hus an even smooher pah o he Whie House3 Te firs elecion simulaion ess

his heory and quanifies how much o an elecoral advanage he growing numbers o

people o color will likely yield Democras i urnou raes and pary preerences hold

consan o 2012 levels

Te second emerging narraive991252which is simply he inverse o he firs scenario991252high-

lighs he ac ha Republicans mus make inroads wih voers o color i hey wan o

have a fighing chance a winning he Whie House and a number o US Senae races in

20164 Increased Republican suppor among voers o color is no unrealisic paricu-

larly given he ac ha as recenly as he 2004 presidenial elecion Presiden George

W Bush received 44 percen o he Laino and Asian American voe and 11 percen o

he Arican American voe naionally5 Tus he second elecion simulaion idenifies

which saes i any Republicans could win i hey regained heir 2004 levels o suppor

among voers o color

Neiher o hese simulaions or heir conclusions should be viewed as predicing he

oucome o he 2016 elecion Insead hey are used o capure991252in a quaniaive man-

ner991252he poenial poliical implicaions o elecoral demographic changes in key saes

As he analysis below highlighs he impac and magniude o demographic changes on

he 2016 elecions is considerably differen across he Unied Saes ye991252a he same

ime991252his issue brie elucidaes broader rends imporan or boh paries o under-

sand Highlighs rom his brie include

bull I Democras are able o reain high levels o suppor among voers o color in 2016

as hey did in 2012 hen hey will more easily win batleground saes such as

Virginia where Democrasrsquo margin o vicor y would increase by more han one-

hird More imporanly Democras could win back some saes hey los in 2012

including Norh Carolina

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8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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4 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE 1

2012 and 2016 state electorates

Racial and ethnic composition of eligible voting population

Non-Hispanic white Hispanic Black Asian

Arizona

2012 676 204 43 23

2016 644 227 52 30

Colorado

2012 775 143 39 22

2016 754 160 42 26

Florida

2012 653 171 146 19

2016 617 202 155 22

Georgia

2012 617 39 311 22

2016 593 56 320 30

Nevada

2012 647 159 89 66

2016 602 188 101 81

North Carolina

2012 713 31 220 14

2016 692 45 227 18

Ohio

2012 840 21 115 11

2016 826 27 121 13

Virginia

2012 701 45 194 41

2016 678 64 194 49

Source Authorrsquos calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

Across various saes differen racial and ehnic groups are driving he increase in people

o colorrsquos share o all eligible voers In some saes voers o color are becoming a larger

share o he elecorae as a resul o rapid growh wihin a specific racial or ehnic group

o he elecorae which may on is own be a raher small share o he overall elecorae

For example in Georgia people o color made up 38 percen o he elecorae in 2012

Ta number will rise o 41 percen by 201613 Tis growh is atribuable in large par o

he increasing size o he Laino elecorae which is on rack o make up nearly 6 percen

o all eligible Georgia voers by 2016991252a nearly 50 percen increase since 201214

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5 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Electoral effects of demographic changes

As oulined above people o color are becoming a larger share o he elecorae all across

he Unied Saes Bu as we have seen in pas elecions he racial and ehnic composi-

ion o he eligible elecorae is very differen han ha o acual voers Hisorically

eligible Laino and Asian American voers have had low urnou raes hovering around

mid- o high-40 percen or he pas ew presidenial elecions15(see Figure 1) I is clearha voers o color are currenly punching below heir poliical poenial making up a

much smaller share o acual voers han hey are o he eligible voing populaion

FIGURE 1

Voter turnout rate by race and ethnicity

Source Bureau of the Census Voting and Registration avalible at httpswwwcensusgovhheswwwsocdemovotingpublicationsp20indexhtml

(last accessed November 2014)

Non-Hispanic white Black Hispanic Asian

402000 2004 2008 2012

50

618

672661 662

568

60

647 641

451472

499 48

433 441

476 473

60

70

Given he gap beween he racial and ehnic makeup o eligible and acual voers o

wha exen will elecoral demographic changes ranslae ino poliical influence One way o quaniy wha impac shifing demographics will have in 2016 is o simulae an

elecion Below are he resuls o wo simulaions

bull In he firs simulaion i is assumed ha voer urnou raes and poliical persuasion

among all racial and ehnic groups remain he same as hey were in 2012 Tis simu-

laion begins o quaniy wha impac he ongoing demographic changes will have on

elecions i levels o suppor or Republicans and Democras as observed in he 2012

presidenial elecion remain he same in 2016

bull In he second simulaion i is sill assumed ha racial and ehnic groups urn ou o

voe a he same raes as in 2012 However in his simulaion he model is changed o

one where voers suppor paries a he same level hey did in 2004 Tis simulaion

aims o ideniy poenial elecoral oucomes i he Republican Pary regains he high

levels o suppor among voers o color demonsraed in 2004

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

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7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

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8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

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9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

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10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

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11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

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12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

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13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

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14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

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15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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2 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

wo elecion simulaions Te firs simulaion assumes ha across all racial and ehnic

groups voers urn ou a he same rae and have he same pary preerence as hey

did in 2012 In he second simulaion voer urnou raes are again held consan rom

2012 bu racial and ehnic groups are assumed o rever o he pary preerences hey

exhibied in 2004 Voer urnou raes are held consan rom 2012 so as o isolae he

elecoral impac o demographic changes a varying levels o pary preerence I urnou

raes among voers o color are higher in 2016 han hose used in hese simulaions henhe elecoral effecs will be greaer han hose presened here Conversely i urnou

raes all hen he magniude o he poliical effecs will be dampened

wo narraives regarding he 2016 elecions are already emerging around voers o

color Te firs soryline is ha he growing number o voers o color in batleground

saes such as Virginia and Ohio will provide Democras wih an elecoral windall and

hus an even smooher pah o he Whie House3 Te firs elecion simulaion ess

his heory and quanifies how much o an elecoral advanage he growing numbers o

people o color will likely yield Democras i urnou raes and pary preerences hold

consan o 2012 levels

Te second emerging narraive991252which is simply he inverse o he firs scenario991252high-

lighs he ac ha Republicans mus make inroads wih voers o color i hey wan o

have a fighing chance a winning he Whie House and a number o US Senae races in

20164 Increased Republican suppor among voers o color is no unrealisic paricu-

larly given he ac ha as recenly as he 2004 presidenial elecion Presiden George

W Bush received 44 percen o he Laino and Asian American voe and 11 percen o

he Arican American voe naionally5 Tus he second elecion simulaion idenifies

which saes i any Republicans could win i hey regained heir 2004 levels o suppor

among voers o color

Neiher o hese simulaions or heir conclusions should be viewed as predicing he

oucome o he 2016 elecion Insead hey are used o capure991252in a quaniaive man-

ner991252he poenial poliical implicaions o elecoral demographic changes in key saes

As he analysis below highlighs he impac and magniude o demographic changes on

he 2016 elecions is considerably differen across he Unied Saes ye991252a he same

ime991252his issue brie elucidaes broader rends imporan or boh paries o under-

sand Highlighs rom his brie include

bull I Democras are able o reain high levels o suppor among voers o color in 2016

as hey did in 2012 hen hey will more easily win batleground saes such as

Virginia where Democrasrsquo margin o vicor y would increase by more han one-

hird More imporanly Democras could win back some saes hey los in 2012

including Norh Carolina

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 318

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 418

4 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE 1

2012 and 2016 state electorates

Racial and ethnic composition of eligible voting population

Non-Hispanic white Hispanic Black Asian

Arizona

2012 676 204 43 23

2016 644 227 52 30

Colorado

2012 775 143 39 22

2016 754 160 42 26

Florida

2012 653 171 146 19

2016 617 202 155 22

Georgia

2012 617 39 311 22

2016 593 56 320 30

Nevada

2012 647 159 89 66

2016 602 188 101 81

North Carolina

2012 713 31 220 14

2016 692 45 227 18

Ohio

2012 840 21 115 11

2016 826 27 121 13

Virginia

2012 701 45 194 41

2016 678 64 194 49

Source Authorrsquos calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

Across various saes differen racial and ehnic groups are driving he increase in people

o colorrsquos share o all eligible voers In some saes voers o color are becoming a larger

share o he elecorae as a resul o rapid growh wihin a specific racial or ehnic group

o he elecorae which may on is own be a raher small share o he overall elecorae

For example in Georgia people o color made up 38 percen o he elecorae in 2012

Ta number will rise o 41 percen by 201613 Tis growh is atribuable in large par o

he increasing size o he Laino elecorae which is on rack o make up nearly 6 percen

o all eligible Georgia voers by 2016991252a nearly 50 percen increase since 201214

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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5 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Electoral effects of demographic changes

As oulined above people o color are becoming a larger share o he elecorae all across

he Unied Saes Bu as we have seen in pas elecions he racial and ehnic composi-

ion o he eligible elecorae is very differen han ha o acual voers Hisorically

eligible Laino and Asian American voers have had low urnou raes hovering around

mid- o high-40 percen or he pas ew presidenial elecions15(see Figure 1) I is clearha voers o color are currenly punching below heir poliical poenial making up a

much smaller share o acual voers han hey are o he eligible voing populaion

FIGURE 1

Voter turnout rate by race and ethnicity

Source Bureau of the Census Voting and Registration avalible at httpswwwcensusgovhheswwwsocdemovotingpublicationsp20indexhtml

(last accessed November 2014)

Non-Hispanic white Black Hispanic Asian

402000 2004 2008 2012

50

618

672661 662

568

60

647 641

451472

499 48

433 441

476 473

60

70

Given he gap beween he racial and ehnic makeup o eligible and acual voers o

wha exen will elecoral demographic changes ranslae ino poliical influence One way o quaniy wha impac shifing demographics will have in 2016 is o simulae an

elecion Below are he resuls o wo simulaions

bull In he firs simulaion i is assumed ha voer urnou raes and poliical persuasion

among all racial and ehnic groups remain he same as hey were in 2012 Tis simu-

laion begins o quaniy wha impac he ongoing demographic changes will have on

elecions i levels o suppor or Republicans and Democras as observed in he 2012

presidenial elecion remain he same in 2016

bull In he second simulaion i is sill assumed ha racial and ehnic groups urn ou o

voe a he same raes as in 2012 However in his simulaion he model is changed o

one where voers suppor paries a he same level hey did in 2004 Tis simulaion

aims o ideniy poenial elecoral oucomes i he Republican Pary regains he high

levels o suppor among voers o color demonsraed in 2004

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

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7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 918

9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

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15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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4 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE 1

2012 and 2016 state electorates

Racial and ethnic composition of eligible voting population

Non-Hispanic white Hispanic Black Asian

Arizona

2012 676 204 43 23

2016 644 227 52 30

Colorado

2012 775 143 39 22

2016 754 160 42 26

Florida

2012 653 171 146 19

2016 617 202 155 22

Georgia

2012 617 39 311 22

2016 593 56 320 30

Nevada

2012 647 159 89 66

2016 602 188 101 81

North Carolina

2012 713 31 220 14

2016 692 45 227 18

Ohio

2012 840 21 115 11

2016 826 27 121 13

Virginia

2012 701 45 194 41

2016 678 64 194 49

Source Authorrsquos calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

Across various saes differen racial and ehnic groups are driving he increase in people

o colorrsquos share o all eligible voers In some saes voers o color are becoming a larger

share o he elecorae as a resul o rapid growh wihin a specific racial or ehnic group

o he elecorae which may on is own be a raher small share o he overall elecorae

For example in Georgia people o color made up 38 percen o he elecorae in 2012

Ta number will rise o 41 percen by 201613 Tis growh is atribuable in large par o

he increasing size o he Laino elecorae which is on rack o make up nearly 6 percen

o all eligible Georgia voers by 2016991252a nearly 50 percen increase since 201214

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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5 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Electoral effects of demographic changes

As oulined above people o color are becoming a larger share o he elecorae all across

he Unied Saes Bu as we have seen in pas elecions he racial and ehnic composi-

ion o he eligible elecorae is very differen han ha o acual voers Hisorically

eligible Laino and Asian American voers have had low urnou raes hovering around

mid- o high-40 percen or he pas ew presidenial elecions15(see Figure 1) I is clearha voers o color are currenly punching below heir poliical poenial making up a

much smaller share o acual voers han hey are o he eligible voing populaion

FIGURE 1

Voter turnout rate by race and ethnicity

Source Bureau of the Census Voting and Registration avalible at httpswwwcensusgovhheswwwsocdemovotingpublicationsp20indexhtml

(last accessed November 2014)

Non-Hispanic white Black Hispanic Asian

402000 2004 2008 2012

50

618

672661 662

568

60

647 641

451472

499 48

433 441

476 473

60

70

Given he gap beween he racial and ehnic makeup o eligible and acual voers o

wha exen will elecoral demographic changes ranslae ino poliical influence One way o quaniy wha impac shifing demographics will have in 2016 is o simulae an

elecion Below are he resuls o wo simulaions

bull In he firs simulaion i is assumed ha voer urnou raes and poliical persuasion

among all racial and ehnic groups remain he same as hey were in 2012 Tis simu-

laion begins o quaniy wha impac he ongoing demographic changes will have on

elecions i levels o suppor or Republicans and Democras as observed in he 2012

presidenial elecion remain he same in 2016

bull In he second simulaion i is sill assumed ha racial and ehnic groups urn ou o

voe a he same raes as in 2012 However in his simulaion he model is changed o

one where voers suppor paries a he same level hey did in 2004 Tis simulaion

aims o ideniy poenial elecoral oucomes i he Republican Pary regains he high

levels o suppor among voers o color demonsraed in 2004

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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4 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE 1

2012 and 2016 state electorates

Racial and ethnic composition of eligible voting population

Non-Hispanic white Hispanic Black Asian

Arizona

2012 676 204 43 23

2016 644 227 52 30

Colorado

2012 775 143 39 22

2016 754 160 42 26

Florida

2012 653 171 146 19

2016 617 202 155 22

Georgia

2012 617 39 311 22

2016 593 56 320 30

Nevada

2012 647 159 89 66

2016 602 188 101 81

North Carolina

2012 713 31 220 14

2016 692 45 227 18

Ohio

2012 840 21 115 11

2016 826 27 121 13

Virginia

2012 701 45 194 41

2016 678 64 194 49

Source Authorrsquos calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

Across various saes differen racial and ehnic groups are driving he increase in people

o colorrsquos share o all eligible voers In some saes voers o color are becoming a larger

share o he elecorae as a resul o rapid growh wihin a specific racial or ehnic group

o he elecorae which may on is own be a raher small share o he overall elecorae

For example in Georgia people o color made up 38 percen o he elecorae in 2012

Ta number will rise o 41 percen by 201613 Tis growh is atribuable in large par o

he increasing size o he Laino elecorae which is on rack o make up nearly 6 percen

o all eligible Georgia voers by 2016991252a nearly 50 percen increase since 201214

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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5 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Electoral effects of demographic changes

As oulined above people o color are becoming a larger share o he elecorae all across

he Unied Saes Bu as we have seen in pas elecions he racial and ehnic composi-

ion o he eligible elecorae is very differen han ha o acual voers Hisorically

eligible Laino and Asian American voers have had low urnou raes hovering around

mid- o high-40 percen or he pas ew presidenial elecions15(see Figure 1) I is clearha voers o color are currenly punching below heir poliical poenial making up a

much smaller share o acual voers han hey are o he eligible voing populaion

FIGURE 1

Voter turnout rate by race and ethnicity

Source Bureau of the Census Voting and Registration avalible at httpswwwcensusgovhheswwwsocdemovotingpublicationsp20indexhtml

(last accessed November 2014)

Non-Hispanic white Black Hispanic Asian

402000 2004 2008 2012

50

618

672661 662

568

60

647 641

451472

499 48

433 441

476 473

60

70

Given he gap beween he racial and ehnic makeup o eligible and acual voers o

wha exen will elecoral demographic changes ranslae ino poliical influence One way o quaniy wha impac shifing demographics will have in 2016 is o simulae an

elecion Below are he resuls o wo simulaions

bull In he firs simulaion i is assumed ha voer urnou raes and poliical persuasion

among all racial and ehnic groups remain he same as hey were in 2012 Tis simu-

laion begins o quaniy wha impac he ongoing demographic changes will have on

elecions i levels o suppor or Republicans and Democras as observed in he 2012

presidenial elecion remain he same in 2016

bull In he second simulaion i is sill assumed ha racial and ehnic groups urn ou o

voe a he same raes as in 2012 However in his simulaion he model is changed o

one where voers suppor paries a he same level hey did in 2004 Tis simulaion

aims o ideniy poenial elecoral oucomes i he Republican Pary regains he high

levels o suppor among voers o color demonsraed in 2004

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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5 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Electoral effects of demographic changes

As oulined above people o color are becoming a larger share o he elecorae all across

he Unied Saes Bu as we have seen in pas elecions he racial and ehnic composi-

ion o he eligible elecorae is very differen han ha o acual voers Hisorically

eligible Laino and Asian American voers have had low urnou raes hovering around

mid- o high-40 percen or he pas ew presidenial elecions15(see Figure 1) I is clearha voers o color are currenly punching below heir poliical poenial making up a

much smaller share o acual voers han hey are o he eligible voing populaion

FIGURE 1

Voter turnout rate by race and ethnicity

Source Bureau of the Census Voting and Registration avalible at httpswwwcensusgovhheswwwsocdemovotingpublicationsp20indexhtml

(last accessed November 2014)

Non-Hispanic white Black Hispanic Asian

402000 2004 2008 2012

50

618

672661 662

568

60

647 641

451472

499 48

433 441

476 473

60

70

Given he gap beween he racial and ehnic makeup o eligible and acual voers o

wha exen will elecoral demographic changes ranslae ino poliical influence One way o quaniy wha impac shifing demographics will have in 2016 is o simulae an

elecion Below are he resuls o wo simulaions

bull In he firs simulaion i is assumed ha voer urnou raes and poliical persuasion

among all racial and ehnic groups remain he same as hey were in 2012 Tis simu-

laion begins o quaniy wha impac he ongoing demographic changes will have on

elecions i levels o suppor or Republicans and Democras as observed in he 2012

presidenial elecion remain he same in 2016

bull In he second simulaion i is sill assumed ha racial and ehnic groups urn ou o

voe a he same raes as in 2012 However in his simulaion he model is changed o

one where voers suppor paries a he same level hey did in 2004 Tis simulaion

aims o ideniy poenial elecoral oucomes i he Republican Pary regains he high

levels o suppor among voers o color demonsraed in 2004

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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6 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

As one would expec boh o hese simulaions show ha he elecoral impac o hese

demographic changes varies considerably beween saes Ye hese scenarios also clearly

reveal ha he influence o voers o color on elecion oucomes is increasing and or

boh paries he pah oward winning elecions will require significan suppor among

his growing segmen o he elecorae

Results Simulation 1

By 2016 given he rising share o people o color in he elecorae i Democras are able

o mainain suppor among voers o color a he same levels hey achieved in 2012 hen

hey will more easily win saes ha were only narrowly won in 2012

For example he 2012 presidenial elecion in Colorado was a igh race ha Presiden

Barack Obama ulimaely won99125251 percen o 46 percen991252in no small par due o his

suppor among voers o color16 Tese voers collecively accouned or more han 20

percen o eligible voers wih Lainos alone making up 14 percen o all eligible voersBy 2016 people o colorrsquos share o he elecorae will rise by 2 percenage poins o 246

percen o all eligible voers Tis means ha he poenial influence voers o color will

have on he oucome o Colorado elecions will be greaer han i was in 2012

Specifically in he firs elecion model CAP idenifies ha in 2016 he Democraic

candidaersquos margin o vicory in Colorado would increase by 16 percen poins due o

demographic shifs alone i all else is he same rom he 2012 elecion17 In oher words

i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers urn ou and suppor poliical paries a he

same level hey did in 2012 he Democraic candidae would win he sae by a margin

o 518 percen o 452 percen jus by virue o he increase in he number o voers ocolor as a share o he elecorae18

FIGURE 2

Colorados eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

775

754

143

160

39

42

22

26

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 718

7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 818

8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

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13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 718

7 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 3

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Colorado

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Source Authors calculations See Methodology

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

51

518

46

452

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

However demographic changes991252and coninued suppor among voers o color991252will

no only make i easier or Democras o win saes ha hey previously won in 2012Tese demographic changes are also creaing an opporuniy or Democras o win back

saes hey los in 2012

During he las presidenial elecion cycle voers o color991252and Lainos in paricular991252

creaed a firewall or Presiden Obama In 2012 he Laino elecorae helped Democras

end off ough challenges in Colorado by voing or Democras a high levels19 However

he 2012 elecion also illusraed ha no every sae has he demographics necessary or

Democras o successully build a wall o deense agains he GOP

ake Colorado and Norh Carolina or example Obama won boh saes in 2008 bu by 2012 suppor or Democras among non-Hispanic whie voers had dropped by 6

percenage poins in Colorado and 4 percenage poins in Norh Carolina20 During

he same period voers o color became a larger share o hese saesrsquo elecoraes and

suppor or Presiden Obama among hese voers increased In Colorado hese changes

were large enough o build a firewall o suppor or Democras and keep he sae blue

In Norh Carolina however non-Hispanic whie voerrsquos suppor or Massachusets

Gov Mit Romney (R) was so srong ha even Presiden Obamarsquos high level o suppor

suppor among voers o colors could no keep he sae rom urning red

However CAPrsquos elecion simulaion indicaes ha Norh Carolinarsquos shifing demograph-

ics are such ha even i he Democraic candidae ails o regain suppor among whie

voers in 2016 Democras could sill reake he sae based largely on suppor rom

voers o color21 By 2016 voers o color will make up 31 percen o he saersquos eligible

elecorae compared o 29 percen in 201222 While his change isnrsquo drasic i he 2016

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 818

8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 918

9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 818

8 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Democraic presidenial candidae is able o reain he level o suppor Obama secured

in 2012 among voers o color i would ranslae ino enough suppor o overcome he

Republicanrsquos hold on non-Hispanic whie voers Democras would pick up a ne 23

poins meaning hey would flip he sae back in heir avor23

FIGURE 4

North Carolinas eligible electorate by race and ethnicity

Source Authors calculations are based on the Bureau of the Census 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Non-Hispanic white

Hispanic Black Asian

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

2012

2016

713

692

22

227

31

45

14

18

FIGURE 5

Electoral impact of demographic changes in North Carolina

Democrat and Republican shares of votes in 2012 and under election simulation 1

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

2016 (simulation 1) Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they

did in 2012

2012

2016

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

48

492

50

489

Bu jus how grea is he poenial o Norh Carolinarsquos eligible voer o color elecorae

o ac as a couner weigh o he growing Republican suppor among whie voers in

2016 I is clear ha here are limiaions o he rising voers o color firewall in Norh

Carolina I Republicans or example receive 73 percen o he voes cas by whie

voers991252a level o suppor ha is greaer han ha observed in 2012 bu was achieved

by Republicans in 2004991252growing demographics among voers o color wouldnrsquo be

enough o secure a win or he Democraic candidae24

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 918

9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 918

9 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

In oher words while demographic changes beween 2012 and 2016 are large enough o

ac as a counerweigh o he Republican suppor observed in 2012 hese changes migh

no allow Democras o end off or upend Republicans i he GOP coninues heir rend

o picking up suppor among Norh Carolinarsquos non-Hispanic whie voers

Results Simulation 2

While Democras have a grea deal o gain i hey are able o mainain suppor among

voers o color hey are no he only poliical pary ha is posiioned o benefi rom he

naionrsquos shifing demographics Te second simulaion highlighs he poliical impac o

demographic change i he Republican presidenial candidae in 2016 is able o secure

suppor among voers o color a he same levels Presiden George W Bush experienced

in 2004

In many ways his simulaion adds credence o he increasingly requen claim made

by pundis ha i he GOP wishes o win key saes i mus increase suppor among voers o color Naionally in 2012 Republicans received jus 26 percen o he Asian

American voe 27 percen o he Laino voe and an even smaller share o Arican

American voe a a palry 6 percen25 I Republicans are able o increase heir suppor

among voers o color i is clear ha hey will be posiioned o win back saes hey los

in 2008 and 2012

In 2004 in Florida or example Presiden George W Bush ook he sae wih a 5-poin

margin o vicory Republicans won he sae wih high suppor among whie voers and

solid suppor among voers o color In ac Presiden Bush secured 56 percen o he

Laino voe in 2004 bu his share ell o 39 percen by 2012 (see Figure 6)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1018

10 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Note Reported Asian support is a national average

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Non-Hispanic white

FIGURE 6

Party preference among Florida voters by race and ethnicity 2004 and 2012

Share of voters that supported Democratic and Republican presidential candidates

2004 42 57

2012

5644

1386

4456

Hispanic

2004

37 61

Black

2012

2004

2012

2004

2012

Asian

3960

495

2673

Democrat Republican

Perhaps obviously i he 2016 Republican candidae were able o regain he level o sup-

por Presiden George W Bush saw rom voers in 2004 he GOP would reake Floridain 2016 Bu less obvious is he ac ha Republicanrsquos margin o vicory under such a

scenario would all drasically rom wha i was in 2004 o jus 09 percenage poins

in 2016 (see Figure 7) I is clear ha Florida is quickly shifing oward991252i no already

arrived a991252a poin where a vicory or eiher pary in he sae will require a srong

showing o suppor among voers o color

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1118

11 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 7

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available athttpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Bureau of the Census

2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

47

52

50

49

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

495

504

Demographic changes are occurring a such rapid raes ha in some saes regain-

ing 2004 levels o suppor simply will no be enough or he Republican presidenial

candidae o win hem back in 2016 In oher words as voers o color become a larger

share o he elecorae winning a sae in 2016 will necessiae a higher level o suppor

among voers o color han in pas elecions In Ohio or example he GOP ook he

sae in 2004 wih slighly more han a 2 percen margin o vicory Presiden George

W Bush obained noiceable suppor among voers o color 16 percen o Arican Americans in Ohio voed or him Tis level o suppor however deerioraed dur-

ing he nex ew elecions By 2012 Gov Romney ook only 6 percen o voes cas by

Arican Americans26 Beween 2004 and 2016 he elecorae o Ohio will have changed

When Presiden Bush won Ohio in 2004 voers o color collecively comprised less

han 14 percen o he saersquos elecorae By 2016 Arican Americans will consiue

more han 12 percen o he elecorae and people o color collecively will accoun or

17 percen o he saersquos elecorae In ligh o hese changes CAPrsquos analysis finds ha in

2016 i991252across racial and ehnic groups991252voers cas ballos as hey did in 200427 he

Democraic candidae would win by a margin o 36 percenage poins28 (see Figure 8)

In 2004 non-Hispanic whie voersrsquo suppor or Democraic presidenial candidae

Sen John Kerry (D-MA) was higher han heir suppor or Presiden Obama in 2012

meaning ha under he second simulaion Democras would pick up more suppor

among whie voers han hey did in 2012 Bu even i he Republican candidae in 2016

mainains he high suppor ha Gov Romney received among whie voers while a he

same ime regaining 2004 levels o suppor among voers o color he GOP would sill

lose Ohio (See Appendix or ull resuls under his modified simulaion 2)

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1218

12 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

FIGURE 8

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Ohio

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in 2004 2012 and under election simulation 2

Sources See Methodology See also Edison Research View election 2004 exit poll results November 3 2004 available at

httpwwwedisonresearchcomview_election_2 Edison Research Edison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit poll November

10 2012 available at httpwwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert

back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have the sameparty preferences as they did in 2012 Voters of color revert back to their 2004 levels of party preference

2004

2012

Democrats

Republicans

Democrats

Republicans

49

51

51

48

2016 (simulation 2)

Democrats

Republicans

518

482

2016 (simulation 2a)

Democrats

Republicans

498

494

Conclusion

As atenion urns oward he 2016 elecions poliical paries pundis and policymak-

ers all should ake sock o elecoral demographic changes sweeping he naion and

he poenial influence hese changes will have on he elecions in 2016 Tis analysis

shows991252hrough a variey o elecion simulaions991252ha as people o color become a

larger share o saesrsquo elecoraes i will be crucial or boh Republicans and Democras

o secure he suppor o his vial voer cohor Bu mos imporanly his analysis shows

ha he level o suppor among voers o color ha a candidae rom eiher pary needs

o secure in order o carry a sae is rising For Republicans simply repeaing he hisory

o 2004991252obaining significan suppor among voers o color991252will no necessarily

mean a win in many swing saes including Ohio and Nevada While he demographic

changes discussed here are ar rom dicaing a clear elecoral desiny or eiher pary

he ac remains ha voers o color are rapidly becoming a larger share o saesrsquo elec-

orae all across he Unied Saes which means ha neiher he Democras nor he

Republicans can afford o ignore hese powerul voers in he coming years

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1318

13 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A1

Eligible voting population by race and ethnicity

Racial and ethnic composition of 2012 and projected 2016 electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Alabama

Non-Hispanic white 705 693

Hispanic 16 26

Black 259 264

Asian 6 10

Arizona

Non-Hispanic white 676 644Hispanic 204 227

Black 43 52

Asian 23 30

California

Non-Hispanic white 504 467

Hispanic 269 300

Black 70 68

Asian 128 140

Colorado

Non-Hispanic white 775 754

Hispanic 143 160

Black 39 42

Asian 22 26

Florida

Non-Hispanic white 653 617

Hispanic 171 202

Black 146 155

Asian 19 22

Georgia

Non-Hispanic white 617 593

Hispanic 39 56

Black 311 320

Asian 22 30

Appendix

able o ull resuls

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1418

14 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Indiana

Non-Hispanic white 859 846

Hispanic 33 42

Black 87 92

Asian 09 11

Iowa

Non-Hispanic white 928 915

Hispanic 27 36

Black 25 29

Asian 09 10

Kansas

Non-Hispanic white 844 826

Hispanic 59 74

Black 56 59

Asian 15 16

Maryland

Non-Hispanic white 607 579

Hispanic 40 55

Black 292 300

Asian 43 49

Michigan

Non-Hispanic white 801 791

Hispanic 29 32

Black 137 141

Asian 15 16

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic white 887 866

Hispanic 23 28

Black 41 52

Asian 27 33

Mississippi

Non-Hispanic white 612 601

Hispanic 14 25

Black 36 364

Asian 05 05

Missouri

Non-Hispanic white 841 828

Hispanic 22 29

Black 109 114

Asian 10 11

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1518

15 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

2012 eligible voting populationProjected 2016 eligible

voting population

Nevada

Non-Hispanic white 647 602

Hispanic 159 188

Black 89 99

Asian 66 80

North Carolina

Non-Hispanic white 713 692

Hispanic 31 45

Black 220 227

Asian 14 18

Ohio

Non-Hispanic white 840 826

Hispanic 21 27

Black 115 121

Asian 11 13

Pennsylvania

Non-Hispanic white 830 808

Hispanic 42 55

Black 102 109

Asian 19 24

Virginia

Non-Hispanic white 701 678

Hispanic 45 64

Black 194 194

Asian 41 49

Source Authorsrsquo calculations are based on the Bureau of the Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey See Methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1618

16 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

TABLE A2

Electoral impact of demographic changes

Democratic and Republican shares of votes by election year and election simulation

2004 2012

2016

(simulation 1)

2016

(simulation 2)

2016

(simulation 2a)

Alabama 3763 3861 391599 402587 375614

Arizona 4455 4454 456524 477518 413568

California 5445 6037 61136 570391 559401

Colorado 4752 5146 518452 483495 499472

Florida 4752 5049 512478 495504 463529

Indiana 3960 4454 448532 402587 435545

Iowa 4950 5246 523457 492488 515465

Kansas 3762 3860 387593 379609 371609

Maryland 4356 6236 631349 588397 583397

Michigan 5148 5445 544446 5346 5346

Minnesota 5148 5345 5444 54458 523458Mississippi 4060 4455 453539 444545 421569

Missouri 4653 4454 448532 51486 432548

Nevada 4851 5246 535444 50448 503485

North Carolina 4456 4850 492489 426557 454523

Ohio 4951 5148 516474 518482 498494

Pennsylvania 4951 5247 532458 534459 511482

Virginia 4654 5147 517463 459537 494489

Simulation 1 Racial and ethnic groups have the same voter turnout rates and party preferences as they did in 2012

Simulation 2 Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 but party preferences revert back to 2004 levels

Simulation 2a Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at the same rates as in 2012 White voters have same party preferences as they did in 2012

Voters of color revert back to 2004 levels of party preferenceSources See Methodology See also Edison Research ldquoView election 2004 exit poll resultsrdquo November 3 2004 available at httpwwwedisonresearch

comview_election_2 Edison Research ldquoEdison successfully conducts the 2012 national election exit pollrdquo November 10 2012 available at http

wwwedisonresearchcomedison-successfully-conducts-the-2012-national-election-exit-polls Authorsrsquo calculations are based on Bureau of the

Censusrsquo 2008 and 2012 American Community Survey

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1718

17 Center for American Progress | The Changing Face of Ameri carsquos Electorate

Methodology

Eligible voer populaion esimaes or 2016 were esimaed or each sae by uiliz-

ing he Bureau o he Censusrsquo American Communiy Survey rom 2008 and 2012

Specifically average growh raes or each racial and ehnic group were idenified a he

sae level and hen applied orward o esimae he 2016 eligible voing populaion In

he analysis above CAP ran wo 2016 elecion simulaions In boh simulaions CAPheld voer urnou raes rom 2012 consan Voer urnou raes were esimaed using

2012 exi polling daa colleced by Edison Research and as repored by CNN

In he firs simulaion CAP assumed ha voer preerence sayed he same as in 2012

Exi polling daa was used o ideniy pary preerence or racial and ehnic groups a he

sae level When sample sizes were oo small and exi polling daa could no indicae pary

preerence o a racial or ehnic group a he sae level CAP uilized he naional average

In he second simulaion CAP again assumed ha voer urnou raes remained he same

as in 2012 bu ha across racial groups pary preerence revered back o 2004 levelsFinally in a modified simulaion 2 CAP assumed ha whie pary preerence was he

same as in 2012 bu ha among voers o color pary preerence reurned o 2004 levels

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Te author would like to thank Angela Maria Kelley Vanessa Cardenas Marshall Fitz and

Philip E Wolgin for their assistance in preparing this issue brief

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology

8102019 The Changing Face of Americarsquos Electorate

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-changing-face-of-americas-electorate 1818

Endnotes

1 Republican National Committee ldquoGrowth amp OpportunityProjectrdquo (2013) available at httpsgoprojectgopcomRNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013pdf

2 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo available at httpwwwcensusgovpopulationprojectionsdatanational2012summary-tableshtml (last accessed November 2014)

3 Ronald Brownstein ldquoRepublicans Canrsquot win With WhiteVoters Alonerdquo The Atlantic September 7 2013 availableat httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsarchive201309republicans-cant-win-with-white-voters-alone279436

4 See for example Michael Medved ldquoReconsidering the2016 Voter Calculusrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 26 2014available at httponlinewsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304547704579565701003547062 Ari Fleischer ldquoWhatthe GOP must do to win in 2016rdquo The Washington Post November 5 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomopinionsari-fleischer-what-the-gop-must-do-to-win-in-2016201411052eb4c78a-63a4-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_storyhtml

5 For 2004 exit polling see CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo Availableat httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesUSP00epolls0html (last accessed November2014)

6 US Bureau of the Census ldquo2012 National Population Projec-tions Summary Tablesrdquo

7 Nate Cohn ldquoWhy Hispanics Donrsquot Have a Larger PoliticalVoicerdquo TheUpshot Blog June 15 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140616upshotwhy-hispanics-dont-have-a-larger-political-voicehtml_r=0

8 Ibid

9 US Bureau of the Census ldquoPopulation Estimates Raceamp Hispanic Originrdquo available at httpswwwcensusgovpopestdatastateasrh1990sst_race_hisphtml (lastaccessed November 2014) Patrick Oakford and VanessaCardenas ldquoInfographic The Growth of the Latino ElectoraterdquoCenter for American Progress February 28 2013 avail-able at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

10 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Ibid

14 Ibid

15 Current Population Survey or CPS November supplementsfrom 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

16 For CO 2012 exit polling see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Coloradordquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateCOpresident (accessed November 2014)

17 Authorrsquos calculation of 2008 and 2012 American CommunitySurvey See methodology

18 Ibid

19 Victoria DeFrancesco Soto ldquoObamarsquos Re-election Sets Re-cord Support for Latino Votersrdquo Latino Decisions November13 2012 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20121113obamas-re-election-sets-record-for-support-latino-voters

20 For 2012 and 2004 national exit polling by Edison Researchand as reported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Full Resu ltsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (lastaccessed November 2014) CNN ldquoElection Resultsrdquo

21 Authorrsquos calculation based on 2008 and 2012 American

Community Survey

22 Ibid

23 Ibid

24 For 2004 North Carolina exit poll by Edison Research andas reported by CNN see CNN ldquoElection Results US Presi-dentialNorth CarolinaExit Pollrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2004pagesresultsstatesNCP00epolls0html (last accessed November 2014)

25 2012 national exit polling by Edison Research and asreported by CNN see CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012 ElectionCenter President Full Resultsrdquo

26 Ibid

27 According to exit polling in 2004 Republicans receivedlower levels of support among Latino voters than they

did in 2012 Even if GOP retained that support and pickedup support among African American voters back to levelsobtained in 2004 they still wouldnrsquot win Ohio in the 2016presidential election

28 Authorrsquos calculations of 2008 and 2012 American Commu-nity Survey See methodology