THE CHALLENGES FOR NEW PROJECTS: BUILDING A...

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AGUIA RESOURCES LIMITED 1 21 st January 2013 AGUIA Resources Limited THE CHALLENGES FOR NEW PROJECTS: BUILDING A BRAZILIAN FERTILISER COMPANY Fertilizer Latino Americano, São Paulo, Brazil ASX Code: AGR

Transcript of THE CHALLENGES FOR NEW PROJECTS: BUILDING A...

AGUIA RESOURCES LIMITED 1 21st January 2013 AGUIA Resources Limited

THE CHALLENGES FOR NEW PROJECTS: BUILDING A BRAZILIAN FERTILISER COMPANY

Fertilizer Latino Americano, São Paulo, Brazil

ASX Code: AGR

This document has been prepared as a summary only, and does not contain all information about the Company’s assets and liabilities, financial position and

performance, profits and losses, prospects and the rights and liabilities attaching to the Company’s securities. This document should be read in conjunction

with any public announcements and reports (including financial reports and disclosure documents) released by Aquia Resources Limited. The securities

issued by the Company are considered speculative and there is no guarantee that they will make a return on the capital invested, that dividends will be paid

on the Shares or that there will be an increase in the value of the Shares in the future. Further details on risk factors associated with the Company’s

operations and its securities are contained in the Company’s prospectuses and other relevant announcements to the Australian Securities Exchange.

Some of the statements contained in this release are forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements include but are not limited to, statements

concerning estimates of tonnages, expected costs, statements relating to the continued advancement of the Company’s projects and other statements which

are not historical facts. When used in this document, and on other published information of the Company, the words such as “aim”, “could”, “estimate”,

“expect”, “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “should” and similar expressions are forward-looking statements.

Although the company believes that its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risk and

uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Various factors could cause actual

results to differ from these forward-looking statements include the potential that the Company’s projects may experience technical, geological, metallurgical

and mechanical problems, changes in product prices and other risks not anticipated by the Company or disclosed in the Company’s published material.

The Company does not purport to give financial or investment advice. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any

recipient of this document. Recipients of this document should carefully consider whether the securities issued by the Company are an appropriate

investment for them in light of their personal circumstances, including their financial and taxation position.

Competent Persons Statement

The information in this report that relates to Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves is based on information compiled by Dr Fernando

Tallarico who is a member of the Association of professional Geoscientists Ontario. Dr Tallarico is a full-time employee of Aguia Resources Limited. Dr

Tallarico has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is

undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral

Resources and Ore Reserves (“JORC Code”). Dr Tallarico consents to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on his information in the form and

context in which it appears.

DISCLAIMER

The fertilizer sector has not always

been a target for explorers

Phosphate – 1987 – 2006: Money made selling companies

– Average phosphate rock price ~US$50/t fob

– Average DAP gross margins of ~US$11/t

– Almost no funding for Juniors

Potash – 1987 – 2004: No greenfield developments

– KCl average price US$90/t

– Almost no funding for Juniors

Higher commodity prices have given

investors an incentive to explore…..

Phosphate Juniors

– < 5 juniors in 2006 to > 23 today

– < $50M Market Cap in 2006 to > $1.0B today

Potash Juniors

– < 5 juniors in 2006 to > 26 today

– < $50M Market Cap in 2006 to > $2.0B today

– Potash One bought by K+S for $434M; Athabasca bought by BHP

Biliton for $331M

Segmentation by Exchange of Companies Developing Phosphate and

Potash Resources

Phosphate Juniors Potash Juniors

# Companies Market Cap ($M) # Companies Market Cap ($M)

TSX / TSX-V 11 738 17 1,055

ASX 9 204 7 375

Other 3 63 2 572

Total 23 1,005 26 2,003

Australia / NZ

Phosphate: Chatham Rock Phos Korab Resources Krucible Metals Ltd. Legend International Minemakers NuPower Resources Phosphate Australia Rum Jungle Strata Minerals

Potash: Potash West NL Reward Minerals Sirius Minerals South Boulder Mines

Latin America

Phosphate: Aguia Resources Eagle Star Minerals Focus Ventures Ltd. Fosfatos del Pacifico MBAC Fertilizers Redstone Res Rio Verde Minerals Stonegate Agricom

Potash: Aguia Resources Allana Potash Eagle Star Minerals MBAC Fertilizers Pacific Potash Corp Redstone Res. Rio Verde Minerals Sirocco Mining Verde Potash

Africa

Phosphate: Celamin Great Quest Metals Minbos Resources Oklo Resources Plains Creek Phos

UCL / Sandpiper Vale

Potash: Allana Potash Elemental Minerals Ethiopian Potash MagIndustries South Boulder Mines

North America

Phosphate: D’Arianne Resources Glen Eagle Resources Jourdan Resources PhosCan Chemical Stonegate Agricom

Potash: Encanto Potash Corp EPM Mining Ventures Grizzly Discoveries IC Potash Karnalyte Resources

North American Potash Dev. Pacific Potash Corp Passport Potash Potash Minerals Red Metal Ltd. Red Moon Potash

Softrock Minerals Ltd. Universal Potash Corp Western Potash

Europe / Asia

Phosphate: Sunkar Resources Eurochem Yara

Potash: Sprint Capital / Satimola Sirius Minerals

The Americas, Africa, and Australia

dominate the exchange-listed projects…..

Juniors play a pivotal role in new

discoveries....

JUNIORS PROVIDE FOCUS:

Able to focus on exploration and project development

Able to move swiftly – no competing corporate distractions

Able to raise money – provide investors with targeted investments with

sizable potential returns

Prove the resource

Environmental Permitting

Complete Studies

Construction

Commissioning & Start-up

TIME

Raise Capital

• Drilling licences

• NI 43-101 or JORC Report

• EIA Report • Preliminary

/ Full Installation licences

• Final NI 43-101 or JORC

• Pre-feasibility • Full Feasibility • Detailed

Engineering

The Process

What are investors looking for?

Project

– Location

– Resource

Structure

– Public vs. Private

– Exchange

Management

– Industry knowledge

– Technical expertise

– Public markets experience

Taken together

= Value

Aguia Projects Overview

World-class Assets

■ BUILDING A FERTILISER COMPANY

Phosphate Projects – Near Term Focus

✔RIO GRANDE, new discovery, flag ship project

✔ Initial 21Mt JORC Inferred resource

✔Resource upgrade 1st qtr 2013

✔Beneficiation concentrate up to 36% P2O5

✔Scoping for near term cash flow from high

grade surface resource

✔Large, long life & low cost resources

✔A new world class phosphate province

Potash Project - World class basin

✔Adjacent to Brazil’s only operating potash mine

✔Historic Drill Results throughout Basin

■ STRONG BOARD & FERTILISER EXPERTS

■ EXCELLENT TECHNICAL TEAM IN BRAZIL

■ LOW SOVEREIGN RISK, SUPPORTIVE GOVT.

BRAZIL: AN AGRICULTURAL

POWERHOUSE, AND A GREAT

LOCATION FOR PROJECTS

✔ Excellent infrastructure

✔ Primary fertiliser markets

✔ Heavily reliant on imports

Rio Grande do Sul Discoveries - A New Phosphate Province for Brazil

AGR has been first mover in region

Large landholding over 860 square kms

Potential for new world class phosphate province – LARGE RESOURCE BASE

NEW DISCOVERY from first drilling program

– Três Estradas (TE) - Nov 2011

Numerous untested targets including:

Joca Tavares (JT) rock chips to 11% P2O5

NEW TARGETS

TRES ESTRADAS

NEW DISCOVERY

JOCA TAVARES

NO DRILLING

Similar in style to Brazilian producing

phosphate mines – carbonatite hosted

Três Estradas JORC Inferred Resource

Initial JORC compliant inferred resource of 21Mt @ 4.6% P2O51 including higher

grade oxide zone from surface of 1.8Mt @ 10.9% P2O5

1 SRK Consulting: cut-off grade of 3.0% P2O5)

Resource calculated from drilling

over 1.2 km to 100 metre depth

Stage 2 drilling completed – JORC

resource upgrade 1st qtr 2013

Potential to expand resource

along a total strike of 2.6km

UNTESTED EXTENSION 1.4

km “no drilling”

TOTAL POTENTIAL 2.6 km

INFERRED RESOURCE

EXTENDS OVER 1.2 km

NEW APPLICATION

Três Estradas Scoping on near surface resource

High Grade oxide results from surface – scoping for initial early cash flow Excellent mining parameters, easy access, low strip ratio

Shallow High

Grade Oxide

From Surface

Três Estradas Preliminary beneficiation results

Sample Number & Description Head Grade Metallurgical Flotation Results

(100 kg samples) P2O5 Recovery P2O5 SiO2 Fe2O3

EB-01, Oxidised Carbonatite 16.2% 83.4% 36.0% 3.3% 6.2%4

EB-02, Fresh Carbonatite 4.2% 65.0% 31.4% 3.6% 1.2%

EB-01&3, Oxidised Blend Carbonatite &

Amphibolite 14.2% 79.9% 35.9% 5.6% 6.0%4

Initial metallurgical recoveries up to 83.4% and concentrate grades up to 36.0% P2O5

Results indicate the potential to produce a commercial concentrate using standard

methods and reagents available in the market

Further optimisation test work to commence 1st half 2013

Name of Deposit Location Tonnage

(Mt)

Head

Grade Recovery

Concentration

Grade Stage

Siilinjärvi (Yara) Finland 465 4% 84% 35% Production

Cajati (Vale) Brazil 100 5% 78% 36% Production

Três Estradas (Aguia) Brazil 212 4.6% 65-83% 31-36%3 Exploration /

Development

1JSA Consultoria e Assessoria Técnica, Company data 2 Inferred resource calculated from 40% of potential target length and to 100 metres depth

3 Based on preliminary beneficiation test work, optimisation test work underway . 4 No magnetic separation conducted on samples

Excellent infrastructure access to

markets

• Excellent infrastructure with good road, rail, power, port and services

• Railway within the project that goes north and south to Brazil and southwest to Argentina and Uruguay.

• Franchise owner is América

Latina Logística.

Schematic of Key

Railway Lines Relevant

to Rio Grande

Phosphate Projects

Railway runs through the project

RIO GRANDE Phosphate Projects

Três Estradas

Development options

The Process – Internal Scoping commenced

Mine rock, beneficiate by flotation

Sell rock concentrate

Phase 1: Near Term - Mine high grade oxide for

cash flow to fund on-going development and Capex

Phase 3: Depending on ultimate resource

size, plan for either increased SSP or MAP

/ TSP production

Phase 2: Longer Term – Large resource to

sustain 25 year mine life - Single Super

Phosphate (“SSP”) production.

The Process – Internal scoping commenced

Mine rock, beneficiate by flotation

Use rock concentrate to produce and sell SSP

2-3 years

4 years

5+ years

Current Status

Phase 1

Conceptual

Rock Concentrate

2Mt Oxide

Phase 2

Conceptual

SSP Project

60Mt Total Resource

Resource Tonnage 21.3 M tonnes 1 2 M tonnes 60 M tonnes 2

Resource Grade 4.63% P2O5 1 11% P2O5

3 4.60% P2O5 3

Mine Life 3 years 18.5 years

Concentrate Grade 31% - 36% P2O5 35% P2O5 32 - 35% P2O5

P2O5 Recovery to Conc. 65% - 83% 4 80% 76% 5

Sales 150ktpa rock conc. 600ktpa SSP

CAPEX (US$ million) $40-50m $250-$280m

OPEX (US$ /tonne) $90/tonne rock $150/tonne SSP

Sales Price (US $ /tonne) $190/tonne rock $350/tonne SSP

NPV @ 8% Real DR 6 ($US million) $14.4M pa EBITDA $230M

IRR @ 8% Real DR 27%

Tres Estradas Project: Conceptual Rock & SSP

Production Scenarios

1: Inferred resource, SRK Consulting, 2: Assumed “resources” of 74Mt primary @ 4.05% P2O5 and 6Mt oxide @ 11% P2O5 , 3: Grades as for current inferred resource, 4: Results of initial metallurgical recovery beneficiation test work

at University of Sao Paulo – Test work continues, 5: Assumed 80% oxide and 75% primary recoveries, 6: Real discount rate of 8% equates to a nominal rate of ~10% using 2% cost and revenue inflation

7. Due to the relatively early stage of the Tres Estradas Project and the absence of any detailed technical studies, assessments of the potential value of the Tres Estradas opportunity are highly speculative and unreliable. The analysis

above relies on a number of assumptions that are not based on any detailed technical or economic evaluations of the project and are provided for illustrative purposes only. “Reserve” figures are conceptual only, and are not JORC or

NI43-101 compliant.

Assumptions - For illustrative purposes only – not based on actual

project studies, based on 60Mt resource = 18.5 year mine life, 7

Atlantic Potash Project Highlights

ATLANTIC POTASH PROJECT Adjacent to Brazil’s only operating potash

mine

Taquari-Vassouras Mine (Vale) produces <10% of country’s consumption, with reserves in place until 2019.

Concurrently Vale is developing its Carnallita Potash Project for 1.2Mt solution-mined KCl from carnallite

AGR controls a large land holding of ~ 200,000 hectares

Excellent Infrastructure in Place

Basin Consolidation - Opportunity

Atlantic Potash Project Exceptional discovery potential

Vale Mining Permit

Aguia Project

Potash Claims - Other

Oil Exploration Wells

■ Historical exploration data obtained from

Brazilian Geological Survey

■ Petroleum exploration and production

data – more than 300 wells analyzed

■ Seismic data – basin is well covered with

public 2D seismic data (2D lines- 32,000

km)

■ Locations for further drilling under review

Taquari-Vassouras Mine - Vale

Underground / Room and Pillar

700,000t KCl pa

Associated to Bull’s-eyes Gravity

Low

Conclusions

Project

• Location = Brazil = Market

• Resource = igneous, >34% P2O5

• Scale = Developing significantly

Structure

• Public

• ASX

Management

• Industry knowledge

• Technical expertise

• Public markets experience

ASX Code: AGR

ENQUIRIES:

SIMON TAYLOR – Managing Director & CEO Telephone: +61 2 9247 3203

[email protected]

www.aguiaresources.com.au