The CAULDRON GameClimate Attribution Under Loss & Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating

Designed by Pablo Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)

and the ACE-Africa Team

Farming

Science

UNFCCC

Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions

If global emissions peak

within next few years then

decline

makes little

difference for

next few

decades

Change is inevitable

Creative Commons: Tim J Keegan, 2009

Increasing number of extreme events?

Can any of these

be blamed on

climate change?

Flooding in India, Creative Commons: Samenwerkende Hulporganisaties

Creative Commons: Oxfam International, 2012

Creative Commons: Brendan Cox/ Oxfam, 2006

Creative Commons: Jire Carreon/ Oxfam, 2013

Increasing impacts?

Farmers

Get beans?

Risking Observing Negotiating

Scientists Negotiators

Attribute to

climate change?

Address

impacts?

Team 1 Team 2 Team 3

Inputs: “Bag of seeds” & your investment decisions

Exogenous Factors: Rains & other people’s decisions

Outputs: Food & crises

Developing Developed

WINNERS & LOSERS

Winning Country:

- Duo with most beans by end of farming phase

Losing Farmers:

- All who cannot plant in time (CRISIS)

1. Decisions are individual But team consultation is encouraged

GROUND RULES

3. Time is scarceBe prepared to be rushed

2. Game = simplified representation of realityNo questioning of game rules, for now

4. No messing with the RainmakerProper time & way to shake it

Mary Mwangochi (GEF)

José Bolaños (Govt Perú)

9

Imagine you are a farmer….

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Developing Countries

PLANTING

CHOICE

OK

Good Rains Drought

LOW

YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1

HIGH

YIELDHarvest +2 Harvest: -4

LOST

LOST

LOSTLOST

LOST

Mary Mwangochi (GEF)

José Bolaños (Govt Perú)

9

5

PLANTING

CHOICE

OK

Good Rains Drought

LOW

YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1

HIGH

YIELDHarvest +2 Harvest: -4

LOST

LOST

LOSTLOST

LOST

Developing Countries

If a country cannot plant

enough beans in time,

a Humanitarian Crisis occurs

(red stone)

To avoid a crisis,

you can seek beans from neighbors

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Debrief• Insights from this phase

• Emotions you experienced

Drought

Prob: 1/6 ?

or 2/6 ?

Global Climate Change Kicks InMostly due to past greenhouse gas emissions…

Total historical CO2 emissions

from each country Source: Carbon Quilt

Drought

Will Your Rainmaker Change?

6 = Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Probability: same?

or higher ?

1-5 = OK

good rains

Has your drought probability changed?

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Pay 3 beans!

Infrastructure Investment

Creative Commons: Aran Johnson Creative Commons: Neil Palmer, CIAT, 2010

Creative Commons: Phil Gravell

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Industrialization Kicks InMore income! (& more greenhouse gas emissions…)

On each table, with most beans gets

“developed” farming card (They have been able

to afford fertilizer, irrigation, etc.)

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Financial Crisis

Pay 3 beans!

Creative Commons: Images_of_Money

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Which country in your region has the

most beans?

The winner gets a prize to

build their resources

Everyone else: Bad luck!

Was it just bad luck?

Debrief• Insights from this phase

• Emotions you experienced

Climate Science Phase

Difficult question:

extreme events are rare

so we don’t have much data…

Now imagine you are a scientist…

Has the risk of extreme events

increased?

Climate Science Phase

We have a model of the CHANGED climate,

that can be run just 12 times

Run your model experiments!

Climate models can help

Scientists can run models many times to produce statistics

BUT the number of experiments is limited

AND lots of associated uncertainties!

IPCC Language:

“Virtually Certain”

“Very Likely”

“Likely”

“More Likely than Not”

Climate Science:

Has the Risk changed?

How sure are you?

Write down your answers on the bottom of the sheet

Debrief• Insights from this phase

• Emotions you experienced

Drought

Negotiation Phase: The Context

More suffering due to extreme weather

How to deal with losses from droughts?

BUT the link is unclear…

How has climate change influenced drought?

How important is attribution to climate change?

You

decide!

Now imagine you are a negotiator….

Negotiation Phase How to deal with the impacts of climate change

Your table may fail to reach valid deal… or

- It can be vague

- It can be concrete

- It can be quantified

(X beans from country Y to Z)

- It can be

implemented

(actual reallocation

by countdown)

Deal is valid if :

- Legible text

- Signed by all

- Delivered by deadline

- Plausible

Negotiation Phase How to deal with the impacts of climate change

Some questions you might want to discuss:

• Can you collectively make an agreement to help countries

suffering from drought?

• Is the science relevant/robust enough to support that

agreement?

• Did any country experience droughts and lose beans

because of climate change?

• Can any country be held responsible for climate

change/loss of beans?

• Should any of the beans/other resources be redistributed?

Debrief• Insights from this phase

• Emotions you experienced

Using uncertain science to support

policy is hard

If only we could know for sure how

climate change affected our drought

risk…

Using uncertain science to support

policy is hard

If only we could know for sure how

climate change affected our drought

risk…

This is a game so we can….

Open your rainmakers!

Confession time!

1 No climate change: normal dice

2 Climate change: SOME regions had 2 sixes

3 Modelling: perfect model of changed climate

How well did we understand the

change in risk?

Stand up if you thought your drought risk

had changed…

Now stand (or stay standing) if it had

actually changed

Lessons about attribution science and

policy

• How easy was it to understand change in risk

based on observations? Did the models help?

• Was the science useful during the

negotiations?

• Can event attribution science support

adaptation or loss and damage policy?

• Could event attribution be useful for your

work?

Debrief• Insights from the game

• Emotions you experienced

• Any feedback

Please attribute the CAULDRON Game with a link to

http://www.afclix.org/elgg/groups/profile/155192/aceafr

ica-attributing-impacts-of-external-climate-drivers-on-

extreme-weather-in-africa

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