The Case 0f Sri Lanka

Ganga TilakaratnaResearch Fellow

Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka

Outline

Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka

Youth Employment and Unemployment : Current Status

Youth Employment: Key Issues to be addressed

Conclusions and Policy Suggestions

2

Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

Years

Population by Age Group : 1981-2041

Less than 15 Years 15-29 Years 30-59 Years Over 60 Years

30%

22%27%

Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007) : A population Projection of Sri Lanka for the New Millennium : 2001-2101

19% Youth (15-29 years)

60+ years

3

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Num

ber o

f you

th in

thou

sand

s

Year

Youth Population : 1981-2041

Number of youth (15-29 years) Total Population

Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007)

Youth population (the number of youth) started to decline since 2006

4

Pattern of Youth Population in Sri Lanka: Contributory Factors

1) Fertility decline 2) Increase in life expectancy

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1952

1962

-…

1970

-…

1980

-…

2000

-…

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

at B

irth

(Yea

rs)

Year

Male

Female0123456

1953

1963

1971

1981

1995

-200

0

2003

-200

6

%

Years

Fertility Transition 1953-2003/2006

Total Fetility Rate

Source: Based on Gunasekera, H.R., (2008), De Silva (2013)

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Num

ber

Years

Departure for Foreign Employment 1986-2011

Male Female Total

3) Increasing trend of migration

Source: Based on CBSL, 2012

Increasing level of migration since early 1980s – for permanent migration, employment, education & other

35-40% of those who migrate for employment are youth 6

Youth Unemployment in Sri Lanka

0

10

20

30

40

5019

92

1994

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

%

Years

Youth Unemployment rate (1992-2012)

15-19 Years 20-29 Years Total Unemployment

Source: Based on Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Data Various Years

Decline in overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate In early 1990s, youth unemployment was much higher Despite the declining trend, unemployment rate among youth has been

much higher than the overall rate.7

Unemployment Rate by Age and Gender -2012

Unemployment among 15-24 group is about four times higher than the overall unemployment rate- 17.3%

Unemployment is particularly higher among young females - 23.5% among 15-24 group

4

17.3

6.6

2.50.8

2.8

14

4.3

1.4 0.5

6.2

23.5

11.4

4.7

1.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total 15-24 years 25-29 years 30-39 years Over 40 years

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

%

Age Group

Total Male Female

Source: Based on LFS 2012

8

About 75% of unemployed are youth (over 40% are between 20-24 years)

The pattern has remained unchanged over the past 2 decades

Source: Based on CBSL, 2012

0102030405060708090

100

%

Years

Distribution of Unemployed Persons byAge Group

15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years Over 30 years

9

4

0.6

3.2

6

7.5

2.8

0.3

2.6

4.7 4.5

6.2

1

4.6

8.8

10.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Total Grade 5 & below Grade 6 - 10 G.C.E. (O/L) G.C.E. A/L & above

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

%

Level of Education

Unemployment Rate by Level of Education -2012

Total Male Female

Source: Based on Labor Force Survey 2012

Unemployment among the educated is higher, particularly among educated females….

10

Status of Youth Employment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

15-19 20-24 25-29 Over 30

%

Age Groups

Unpaid Family Worker

Own Account Worker

Employer

Private Employee

Public Employee 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Youth All

%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30 +

Informal sector employment - 2009

Formal Informal

Significant share of employed youth are in informal sector jobs.

Source: World Bank (2010) 11

Female Labour Force Participation Rate

12

Source: Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2011

Female LFPR has not only been low but has fallen in recent year

LFPR among young females is about half that among young males (37% vs 74% in 20-24 age group & 39% vs 94% in 205-29)

Youth Employment : Key Issues to be Addressed

13

1) Skills Mismatch

Two types :

Lack of skills (technical/ ‘soft’ skills) in demand in the labour market

Shortage of jobs to match the needs and aspirations of job-seekers

Lack of skills among youth , to a large extent, is due to gaps in the current education system (tertiary and secondary)

14

Distribution of Youth by the type of Education Institute

Source: based on LFS 2009 data ( UNDP, 2012)

Sri Lanka’s tertiary education system caters only to a smaller proportion of youth, primarily due to the limited capacity.

A larger share of youth enter the labour market without higher education/ vocational/ technical training

15

National Examination Success Rates and University Admission

2010

Number sitting for O-Levels 433,673

Percentage qualifying for A-Levels (% of O/L candidates) 58

Number sitting for A-Levels 233,354

Number qualifying to enter university 142,415

Percentage qualifying to enter university (% of A/L candidates) 61

Number admitted to university 21,547

Percentage admitted to university (% of A/L qualified) 17

Source: DCS (2011), Statistical Pocket Book 2011 ( UNDP, 2012)

Due to limited capacity in state universities, each year, more than 100,000 qualified students miss opportunity to enter university.

Limited alternatives opportunities – few private universities, vocational training)

16

Distribution of University Enrolments by Subject Heavy concentration on

Arts/Management (almost 55% studied these disciplines)

Proportion of undergraduates studying science/engineering/ IT is smaller - but increasingly high demand !

Lack of ‘soft skills’ (communication skills, IT working knowledge, proficiency in ‘English’ language) skills mismatch in labour market

Source: UGC, 2012 (UNDP, 2012)

17

2) Queuing for public sector jobs Due to job security, pensions and non-wage benefits – e.g.

‘more’ holidays and ‘less work’ Preference for public sector jobs is high among females (and

graduates) Gender parity in earnings in the public sector.

3) Gender- wage gap The gender- wage gap is much higher in the private and semi-

government sectors - around 36% and 30% respectively compared to 8% in public sector ( World Bank, 2012)

4) Inequitable gender division in the labour market (male jobs/ female jobs) or gender segregation by occupation

18

5) Regulatory environment governing the labour market contributes to slow growth of formal jobs -Termination of Employment of Workmen Act (TEWA)

Effective in protecting jobs and preventing job losses but raise the cost of hiring formal workers

Leads to hiring of informal workers by formal enterprises.

19

Conclusions and Policy Suggestions

20

Improving quality and relevance of education (tertiary and secondary) More emphasis on disciplines like ICT, science and

technology– there is an increasing demand for labour in these areas but there’s a shortage of skilled labour

Policies to improve ‘soft skills’ in addition to technical skills Establish links between education institutes and

industry/private sector

Expanding the tertiary education sector

Vocational Training

Career guidance / job search assistance Set-up career centres throughout the country and career

guidance at school level.21

Re-visiting labour market regulations that hinder the creation of formal jobs.

Measures to address gender-wage gap and gender segregation of occupation in labour market

Measures to increase female labour force participation

Youth entrepreneurship – financial assistance, training, BDS

Strengthening social protection

22

THANK YOU!

23