The building sector meets climate change and resource ... · PDF fileThe building sector meets...
Transcript of The building sector meets climate change and resource ... · PDF fileThe building sector meets...
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The building sector meets
climate change and resource depletion
Nils Larsson
Executive Director, iiSBE,
the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment
May 2010
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Many claim that the building sector is responsible for about 35% to 40% of global greenhouse gases;
This may, in fact, be overstating things somewhat, since the proportion varies according to region;
In Malaysia, for example, it is estimated that the building sector accounts for 18% of total GHG;
On the other hand, the link to commuting transport is often ignored;
In summary, the building sector is a big part of the problem, and should be treated as a priority target;
Water conservation is of critical importance in areas such as Spain, the Middle East and southwest USA;
And we have diminishing supplies of oil and some key materials, which continue to drive up prices and will cause supply problems in the long run;
Because of the probable climate change effects on buildings that we all live or work in, adaptation strategies are also of great importance;
Tackling the issues in the building sector
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WWF footprinting…
Although we have increased efficiency, consumption levels have wiped out the gains, and more;
The carbon footprint has steadily increased over the last 50 years;
We now exceed the earth’s ecological carrying capacity
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The A1B global temperature projection by
region and for two decades in this century
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Consumption of a range of industrial materials in Western
Europe and USA is much more than in the rest of the world:
what happens when India and China join the party?
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Reduced
availability and
higher cost of
fuels and
materials
Retrofit to adapt buildings
and relocation to meet
climate change conditions
Demand for higher
service levels in
developing and
developed countries
New
construction
related to
needs of
climate
refugees
Housing and service demand to
meet current deficits and future
urban growth in developing countries
The
Construction
Sector
Construction work
required to replace
ageing infrastructure
Issues at
mid-century
Water scarcity
and/or drought
in some areas
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What kind of policy instruments are cost-effective?
Source: Report by Central European University for UNEP-SBCI, 2007
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Source: Adapted from University of Copenhagen Synthesis Report, March 2009, pg. 29, and from original McKinsey Quarterly
2007 #1
Global cost curve for GHG abatement measures beyond business as
usual, for measures estimated to cost less than 40 Euros per ton in
2030
Marginal costs Marginal annual costs higher than BAU
Annual abatement costs in Euros per ton, for global
measures costing less than 40 Euro/tCO2-eq in 2030,
calculated as the annual additional operating cost
(including depreciation) less potential operating cost
savings, divided by the amount of emissions avoided…
costs can be negative if costs savings are
considerable.
Total annual
reduction 27 Gt
CO2-eq
lower than BAU
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Some good news: economic mitigation potentials by sector
as a function of carbon price in 2030 estimated from
bottom-up studies.
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In addressing the GHG problem, we must remember that,
although new buildings tend to attract most attention, existing
buildings represent from 96% to 98% of the total stock;
Performance improvements to existing buildings must
therefore be a priority.
New build and existing buildings
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Total building stock
Existing buildings
New buildings
Certified buildings
Approximate proportions
in the building stock
But new construction has
influence over the mid-term
(Canadian rates of demolition and construction).
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Whether new or existing construction, it is advisable to use
neighborhoods as units of analysis and action, because of the
increasing scale of projects, the possibilities of inter-building
systems optimisation and the increasing use of district energy
systems.
Buildings and neighborhoods
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Ensure that GHG performance requirements for new buildings are tough enough to make investors think twice about new construction;
Require labelling to show core performance indicators, such as energy, emissions and water;
Establish regulations and incentives to encourage high-density and mixed-use development in areas served by public transport;
Undertake re-development triage programs in existing urban areas.
Minimize taxes on new infill buildings and on renovation projects, except for second homes;
In N.A. and Asia, launch demonstration programs to make high-density areas attractive to families;
Launch major training programs to increase the pool of skilled renovators;
Things we must do…. a sample
Establish carbon taxes, in a way that does not hurt the poor;
Revise the metric of success; e.g. we need a green GDP.
Decades ago, the economist Milton Friedman pointed out that…. Only a
crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs,
the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around;
Historically, WW2 and 9/11 are examples of major events that caused
sudden and major changes in values, regulations and behaviour;
To conserve steel, glass, and rubber for war industries, the government
halted production of cars in December 1941. A month later, production of
vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, radios, sewing machines, and phonographs
ceased. Altogether, production of nearly 300 items deemed nonessential to
the war effort was banned or curtailed, including coat hangers, beer cans,
and toothpaste tubes*.
The budget deficit required to meet these needs was not allowed to impede
implementation;
The general effects of crises
* www.digitalhistory.uh.edu
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Problems result if one waits to react to a crisis instead of anticipating
it, because the confusion and panic caused by disasters are not the
best conditions for logical and effective action;
U.S. Government actions in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in New
York, or to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, will long remain
examples of hasty and poor policy making.
The initial response to the current global economic meltdown is a
more recent example of ad-hoc reactions;
Paul Krugman put it this way in 2008: The financial system has
been under severe stress for more than a year, and there should
have been careful thought-out contingency plans ready to roll out in
case the markets melted down. Obviously there weren’t…
General reactions to crises
Paul Krugman column, International Herald Tribune, pg. 5, 4-5 October, 2008.
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Some large private firms have learned to take advantage of
confusion and panic to impose values of privatization that create
windfall profits for firms involved in disaster management,
rebuilding efforts or new development;
Such an approach may result in a very costly solution;
It may also exacerbate income differentials and places the poor in
positions that sometimes involve a great deal of suffering;
For example, the responses to the Tsunami of late 2004 led the
Sri Lankan government to develop a reconstruction plan that
prevented low-income fishermen from re-settling in their previous
land holdings on the coast, while supporting the efforts of private
investors to build new luxury hotels in the same area *.
General reactions to crises
* Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine
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Key industry and government leaders don’t want to face the facts and
have hesitated too long about implementing adequate long-term
mitigation measures;
Measures that are implemented tend to be of the no-regrets and
painless variety, but these are not sufficient to make the rapid
reductions that are needed;
Considering the long lag times in the climate system, it therefore
seems that GHG reductions will not come rapidly enough to avoid
severe climate change impacts;
We therefore face a possibility of global temperature increases of
considerably more than the target 2 ºC;
This would lead to massive long-term disruption of agriculture,
industry, living and working conditions, as outlined by IPCC and
others.
Deferred action on climate change
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Although most of the impacts of climate change outlined by IPCC will
be long-term, we should not be surprised by the first harbingers of
serious climate change arriving in the form of discrete major weather
events such as cyclones, other wind storms, extreme precipitation,
associated flooding, droughts or a combination of these;
The only consolation would be that, if a series such events would occur
close to regions of wealth and power, e.g. in Washington, Houston,
New York, London, Hong Kong or Singapore, they will focus attention
on climate change in a way that logic and scientific proof never could;
… and the consequences
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If a series of major events does occur within the next decade, the
case for climate change as the main driver might finally be accepted;
Based on historical catastrophic events of other types, we can
assume that the shock effect of billions in damage and thousands of
deaths would open the minds of the public and elites to radical
measures, not only for reconstruction, but also for a deep and rapid
reduction in emissions;
But such openness will last only for a few weeks, and desperate
leaders will grab whatever plans are available;
The result would be hasty, ad-hoc and poorly considered action;
The likely scenario
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Governments might be led to announce that, in addition to urgent re-
building efforts, national emissions must be reduced by large amounts
over a very short period (say 80% by 2025 instead of 2050), along with
promises of massive fines if targets are not met;
Reaching such performance requirements would be very difficult,
because strategies for such a rapid and deep reductions would have
to be invented on the fly;
We can foresee that it might be achievable in, for example, in the
automotive, or the consumer goods sectors, but it will be much harder
to do so in the building sector;
The building industry is very large and complex, with a few large
players and very many small ones on the production side, and with
control even more dispersed on the demand side;
Likely reactions
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And buildings are almost all unique, so global approaches need
local modifications.
Undoubtedly, there will be some immediate proposals for sweeping
measures but all will be hastily prepared and some of them will
have side effects of excess profits and social dislocation;
But if they are the only plans on the table they will be accepted,
because, in the panic, nobody will have the time or the will to
develop well-considered plans;
So, what might be the effects in the building sector in such a
disorderly situation?
… likely reactions
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First, we would expect a surge in demand for man and materials to
carry out urgent repair, re-building and re-location needs;
This would, within weeks, deplete the supply of skilled and firms in
the region;
Manufacturers of building materials would be faced with urgent
production requests, but would face greatly increased power costs,
and might also have to cope with a disrupted labor force and plant
conditions;
Prices for materials and services of this type would therefore reach
astronomical levels;
Owners or managers of existing commercial buildings would have to
reduce operating hours to meet GHG reduction targets;
Residential tenants will face mandatory energy cuts;
The value of buildings with poor energy efficiency will plummet;
Likely effects of hasty reaction
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Suburban building land values will also face massive drops because of
controls on new building and stringent limits on private vehicle
emissions, which will bring new construction in outer suburbs to a halt.
And, by the way, many standards for good design and operations,
such as adequate lighting levels, indoor comfort conditions, and work
to preserve heritage buildings will fall by the wayside, at least
temporarily (say for 20 years);
Social tensions will rise to very high levels when those who want to
pursue their normal paths (commercial building development, building
your dream home) are faced with permit refusals, while climate
refugees and families suffering from energy poverty are given priority;
And the need to deal with repair and remedial work will lead
governments to say that they cannot afford more GHG mitigation
measures;
So climate change will continue unabated.
Likely effects
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An alternative scenario:
specific contingency plans
prepared now, ready for
implementation when needed
Our assumption is that pressures for immediate action will be very
great in the aftermath of major weather events, if developed countries
are affected;
To be available when the time comes, such plans must be voluntarily
developed now by a variety of public- and private-sector
organisations, so they will be ready when needed;
In this scenario, we imagine that a large number of contingency plans
have been prepared by individual governments and private-sector
organizations, and that these cover most key sectors of the emission-
producing economy;
Such plans must support very rapid reductions in GHG emissions
over a short time-frame – something like 75% over 5 years – but
varying with the sector and specific cases;
Contingency planning scenario
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It will be most logical and realistic to have action plans developed by
organisations for assets or services that are under their own control;
e.g. the owner of a large portfolio of office or residential buildings
would develop a strategy to suit those buildings;
Some of these plans will have to remain confidential, because they
will require restrictions on the actions of individuals that are totally
unacceptable today;
But they must be developed now because, when the crisis comes,
very rapid action will be called for and there will be no time for
thoughtful planning;
Here are a few and diverse examples of the kind of rapid reduction
plans that might be useful in a contingency plan scenario:
Contingency planning scenario
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1. Immediately introduce carbon taxes, to reduce the production of carbon-
intensive building-sector related goods and to reduce the availability of
carbon-intensive services; and simultaneously reduce existing income
taxes;
2. Immediately ban the construction of new coal-fired generation power
plants and the extension of existing ones, unless significant GHG
sequestration is provided;
3. Develop strategies for minimizing speculative price rises for construction
materials;
4. Develop alternatives for power outages and other service interruptions
(water, food and other supplies, communications etc.);
5. Ensure that facilities of critical importance, such as hospitals, public
transportation systems, water and sewage treatment and pumping
systems, remain provided with electrical power, heat, water and other
vital services.
Specific proposals for contingency plans, 1 to 5
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6. Prepare risk assessment studies of existing urban areas and building
stock with regard to possible climate change impact events, such as
floods, wind storms, heat waves etc.. Such work is a necessity for post-
disaster recovery.
7. Make realistic plans for rapid relocation of key facilities such as docks
and airports, and of large populations in areas vulnerable to flooding or
fire;
8. In areas with housing shortages, rapidly identify empty dwellings (mainly
non-primary homes), and measures to ensure that they are more fully
utilized;
9. Develop measures to prevent the proliferation of secure and gated
communities as a disaster response, unless these are socially balanced;
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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 6 to 9
10. Impose a freeze on
new construction in
un-serviced or low-
density areas or
potential flood
areas, and impose
a zero operating
GHG emissions
requirement for
new construction
that is permitted;
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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 10
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11. Introduce an immediate triage program for
urban areas, to determine zones that will be
targeted for performance upgrades or, if the
potential is limited, targeted for dismantling
and replaced by high-performance re-
development;
Specific
proposals for
contingency
plans, 11
12. Establish programs for the rapid conversion of surplus office buildings to
residential uses;
13. In areas designated for performance upgrading, implement an
immediate program of urban infill to increase densities and renovation of
existing buildings to greatly reduce GHG emissions (by at least 75%)
and to improve water performance where relevant;
14. Develop strategies to rapidly implement passive survivability including
food security; support the transition of large urban and suburban milieux
localized, small urban areas and communities that have a greater
degree of self-reliance;
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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 12 to 14
15. Establish crash training programs for regulators, renovation
contractors, simulation specialists and others needed to upgrade
performance in new and existing buildings;
16. Rapidly implement public education programs to promote conservation
in energy, water and materials, for office tenants and residential
owners or tenants;
17. Prohibit the sale of appliances and equipment that do not meet certain
operating efficiency criteria (e.g. "A" label in Europe), and a establish a
program for rapidly scaling up of efficiencies;
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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 15 to 17
18. Establish strictly enforced limits on set points for heating or cooling of
buildings and accelerate the substitution of incandescent lighting by
fluorescent types.
19. Reduce peak loads in electrical networks, through major financial
penalties, staggered office hours and, in some cases, the curtailment of
certain industrial processes;
20. Rapidly implement measures to facilitate feed-in tariff policies from
decentralized renewable power sources;
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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 18 to 20
Some governments, especially in Europe, have launched ambitious
plans to reduce GHGs, but it is not yet clear whether their voters will
agree with the changes in lifestyle that will be necessary to meet
these targets;
Excessive consumption will not easily be reduced, and is likely to lead
us into global temperature increases that will be considerably greater
than the desired target of 2 deg.C;
It is not unreasonable to assume that it will require one or more
climate-induced disasters of major proportions to shock governments
and their populations into real action, especially in North America;
When that happens, there will be an immediate demand for
contingency plans to reduce GHGs in a very rapid way and to
implement urgent measures for climate change adaptation;
We must develop such plans now and keep them ready.
Conclusions
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