The Body In The Bag
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Transcript of The Body In The Bag
The Body in the Bag
Presented By:•Jennifer Fitzmaurice•Martha Fimowicz•Karen Kuklewicz
Case Background
• Late Spring in the morning, an elderly
retiree with a fishing pole, walks through
the underbrush that lined the river’s bank.
• He nears the shore and
sees a rather large canvas
bag floating in the water,
held by the foliage that
leaned over the river.
Case Background
• The bag appears to be stuffed, well worn
and heavily stained.
• Upon further inspection he sees what he
believes to be hair floating through the
bag’s opening.
• He marks the spot and notifies the
authorities.
Case Background
• Preliminary investigation at the scene
revealed a body in the bag.
• The body’s sex, age and race can not be
immediately identified.
• Forensics is assigned
the task of identifying the
victim and estimating the
cause and time of death
Tasks of the Detectives
• Develop a preliminary profile of the victim and offender.
• Only information that the detective has is that the victim and offender are both adults (over 18 years of age).
• Information gathered by the detective in charge concerning victim/offender relationships from the Uniform Crime Reports from the FBI (2003).
Race of Victim/Offender
Race of Offender
Race of Victim
White Black Other TOTAL
White 3017 501 44 3562
Black 226 2864 8 3098
Other 47 26 122 195
Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3323 3412 176 6911
Sex of Victim/Offender
Sex of Offender
Sex of Victim
Male Female Unknown TOTAL
Male 4417 499 71 4987
Female 1754 185 23 1962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6220 691 113 7024
Victim Profile
Based on the information from Uniform Crime Reports from the FBI (2003);
What is the best prediction of the
race and sex of the offender?
Race of Victim
Race of Victim
TOTAL
White 3562
Black 3098
Other 195
Unknown 56
TOTAL 6911
Race of Victim
TOTAL
White 51.5%
Black 44.8%
Other 2.8%
Unknown 0.8%
TOTAL 100%
Sex of Victim
Sex of Victim
TOTAL
Male 4987
Female 1962
Unknown 75
TOTAL 6911
Sex of Victim
TOTAL
Male 71.0%
Female 27.9%
Unknown 1.1%
TOTAL 100%
Victim Profile
• White Male• Probability is Classical Probability• Probability Rule is that the Probability
Value must be between 0 and 1• Where the Probability of the Victim
being White is 3562/6911 = 51.5%• Where the Probability of the Victim being Male is 4987/7024 = 71.0%
What is the best prediction as to the race and sex of the
offender?
Offender Details: Race
Race Total
White 3,323
Black 3,412
Other 176
Total 6,911
Race Total
White 48.1%
Black 49.4%
Other 2.5%
Total 100.0%
Offender Details: Sex
Race Total
Male 6,620
Female 691
Unknown 113
Total 7,024
Race Total
Male 88.6%
Female 9.8%
Unknown 1.6%
Total 100.0%
Offender Profile
• Black Male• Probability is Classical Probability• Probability Rule is that the Probability
Value must be between 0 and 1• Where the Probability being Black is
3,412 / 6,911 = 49.4%• Where the Probability being Male is
6,620 / 7,024 = 88.6%
How likely is that the victim and the offender are of the same race? Same gender? And does it agree with the preliminary predictions?
Joint Profile: Race
Offender Total
White 48.1%
Black 49.4%
Other 2.5%
Total 100.0%
Victim Total
White 51.5%
Black 44.8%
Other 3.6%
Total 100.0%
Joint Profile: Race
P(white) 48.1% * 51.5% = 24.8%
P(black) 49.4% * 44.8% = 22.1%
Probability is Classical Probability with multiplication rules. The method for finding the probability that both of two events occur.
Joint Profile: Sex
Offender Total
Male 88.6%
Female 9.8%
Unknown 1.6%
Total 100.0%
Victim Total
Male 71.0%
Female 27.9%
Unknown 1.1%
TOTAL 100%
Joint Profile: Sex
P(male) 88.6% * 71.0% = 62.9%
P(female) 9.8% * 27.9% = 2.7%
Probability is Classical Probability with multiplication rules. The method for finding the probability that both of two events occur.
Joint Profiles
• The joint profiles for race of the individuals state it is 22.1% likely they are black and 24.8% they are white.
• For the sex of the victim and offender, it is 62.9% likely that they are male and 2.7% they are female.
• The joint profile analysis agrees for gender but does not for race.
Preliminary Forensic Report
• Autopsy suggested that the body had been in the water at least two weeks
• Victim was a white female with blonde hair
• She was estimated as being in her mid-thirties, showed no signs of having had children, and was wearing no jewelry.
Race of Offender
Race of Offender
Race of Victim
White Black Other TOTAL
White 3017 501 44 3562
Black 226 2864 8 3098
Other 47 26 122 195
Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3323 3412 176 6911
Sex of Offender
Sex of Offender
Sex of Victim
Male Female Unknown TOTAL
Male 4417 499 71 4987
Female 1754 185 23 1962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6220 691 113 7024
Offender Profile
• Race of offender in percentage
• Sex of offender in percentage
Race of Offender
TOTAL
White 84.7%
Black 14.1%
Other 1.2%
Sex of Offender
TOTAL
Female 9.4%
Male 89.4%
Unknown 1.2%
Offender Profile
• White Male
• Probability is Classical Probability
• Where the Probability of the Offender being White is 3017/3562 = 84.7%
• Where the Probability of the Offender
being Male is 1754/1962 = 89.4%
QUESTIONS?